{"id":82073,"date":"2023-09-04T15:00:16","date_gmt":"2023-09-04T05:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=82073"},"modified":"2023-09-04T12:37:44","modified_gmt":"2023-09-04T02:37:44","slug":"this-cold-war-is-different","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/this-cold-war-is-different\/","title":{"rendered":"This cold war is different"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

US President Joe Biden brought the leaders of allies Japan and South Korea to Camp David last month to discuss<\/a> how to contain China and counter Russia\u2019s influence\u2014for example, in Africa\u2019s Sahel region, which has recently experienced a string of coups d\u2019\u00e9tat<\/a>. Meanwhile, leaders from the BRICS countries\u2014Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa\u2014gathered in Johannesburg to criticise<\/a> the West\u2019s dominance over the international institutions established after World War II. It was enough to give Cold War historians d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu.<\/p>\n

The West\u2019s main adversary today is China, not the Soviet Union, and the BRICS is no Warsaw Pact. But with the world entering a period of uncertainty following the demise of the post\u2013Cold War order, the parallels are sufficient to convince many to turn to pre-1989 conceptual models to gain insight into what might come next. This includes the US and China, though each is betting on a different model.<\/p>\n

Between the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall, the two main forces defining the international order were ideological conflict, which split the world into two camps, and the quest for independence, which led to the proliferation of states, from 50 in 1945 to more than 150 in 1989\u20131991. While the two forces interacted, ideological conflict was dominant: struggles for independence often morphed into proxy wars, and countries were forced either to join a bloc or define themselves by their \u2018non-alignment\u2019.<\/p>\n

The US seems to think a similar dynamic will dominate this time around. Faced with its first peer competitor since the fall of the Soviet Union, Washington has sought to rally its allies behind a strategy of \u2018decoupling\u2019 and \u2018de-risking\u2019\u2014essentially an economic version of the Cold War policy of containment.<\/p>\n

Whereas the US may be expecting Cold War II, shaped primarily by ideological polarisation, China seems to be betting on global fragmentation. Yes, it has tried to offer non-Western countries an alternative to Western-dominated institutions such as the G7 and the International Monetary Fund. But, in China\u2019s view, the quest for sovereignty and independence is fundamentally incompatible with the formation of Cold War\u2013style blocs.<\/p>\n

Instead, Beijing expects a multipolar world. While China can\u2019t win a battle against a US-led bloc, President Xi Jinping seems convinced that it can take its place as a great power in a fragmented global order.<\/p>\n

Even America\u2019s closest allies aren\u2019t immune from the trend towards fragmentation, despite US leaders\u2019 best efforts. Consider the recent Camp David summit. Though some media were quick to herald<\/a> a \u2018new cold war\u2019, the participants\u2019 interests diverged in several ways.<\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s main focus remains North Korea, and the intelligence-sharing agreements and nuclear consultations announced<\/a> after the summit were as much about signalling a resolve to push back against North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un\u2019s regime as they were about countering China. Japan, for its part, is eager to avoid strategic escalation<\/a> over Taiwan\u2014a development that would threaten its economic model, which depends significantly on trade with China (including in semiconductor-related technology). And both South Korea and Japan are unhappy with the zeal with which America is pursuing its de-risking strategy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As for the situation in the Sahel, it has all the features of a classic Cold War proxy standoff. Since Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali succumbed<\/a> to military coups, the US and France have come to rely on Niger\u2019s government<\/a> as the last bastion of Western support in the region. Under the late Yevgeny Prigozhin<\/a>, the Russian mercenary army Wagner Group gained substantial influence over Mali\u2019s governance<\/a> and practically ran the Central African Republic. The last thing the US and France want is for Wagner to gain another foothold in the region.<\/p>\n

But now that Niger\u2019s government, too, has been ousted by the military, American<\/a> and French<\/a> responses have diverged sharply, allowing the country\u2019s new rulers to have their cake and eat it. The military junta has requested<\/a> Wagner\u2019s assistance to stave off the threat of intervention, but appears willing, at least for now, to allow the US to continue operating drone bases<\/a> in the country.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the biggest news, though, was the BRICS\u2019 announcement<\/a> that six countries\u2014Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates\u2014would become full-fledged members by the beginning of next year. Pre-summit editorialising notwithstanding, China is under no illusion that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will join it in a bona fide anti-Western bloc; Beijing\u2019s goals are more subtle.<\/p>\n

Joining the BRICS increases countries\u2019 freedom of action\u2014for example, by increasing access to alternative sources of financing or, eventually, providing a genuine alternative<\/a> to the US dollar for trade, investment and reserves. A world in which countries are not dependent on the West, but free to explore other options, serves China\u2019s interests far better than a narrower, more loyal pro-China alliance ever could.<\/p>\n

The picture that emerges is of a world in which the superpowers lack sufficient economic, military or ideological clout to force the rest of the world\u2014in particular, the increasingly confident \u2018middle powers\u2019\u2014to pick a side. From South Korea to Niger to the new BRICS members, countries can afford to advance their own goals and interests, rather than pledging fealty to the superpowers.<\/p>\n

Contrary to how it may appear to many, not least in the US, the new cold war seems to be based not on the old logic of polarisation, but on a new logic of fragmentation. Judging by the growth of the BRICS<\/a>, there\u2019s no shortage of countries that find that new logic enticing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US President Joe Biden brought the leaders of allies Japan and South Korea to Camp David last month to discuss how to contain China and counter Russia\u2019s influence\u2014for example, in Africa\u2019s Sahel region, which has …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":529,"featured_media":82075,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1355,52,599,772,2385,31],"class_list":["post-82073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-brics","tag-china","tag-cold-war","tag-geopolitics","tag-new-cold-war","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThis cold war is different | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/this-cold-war-is-different\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This cold war is different | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US President Joe Biden brought the leaders of allies Japan and South Korea to Camp David last month to discuss how to contain China and counter Russia\u2019s influence\u2014for example, in Africa\u2019s Sahel region, which has ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/this-cold-war-is-different\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-09-04T05:00:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-04T02:37:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1248996591.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"634\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark Leonard\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark Leonard\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/this-cold-war-is-different\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1248996591.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-1248996591.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":634,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping make a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. 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