{"id":82141,"date":"2023-09-07T13:30:38","date_gmt":"2023-09-07T03:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=82141"},"modified":"2023-09-07T13:32:13","modified_gmt":"2023-09-07T03:32:13","slug":"indias-quiet-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indias-quiet-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s quiet rise"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

China\u2019s sharp economic slowdown has raised alarm bells around the world. But it has also thrown into relief the rise of another demographic powerhouse next door. The Indian economy grew at an impressive 7.8% annual rate<\/a> in the second quarter of 2023, and the country recently reached an important milestone by becoming the first to land a spacecraft<\/a> on the moon\u2019s potentially water-rich south pole. And, India\u2019s ascent, unlike China\u2019s, hasn\u2019t been accompanied by an increasingly assertive foreign policy or an appetite for other countries\u2019 territory.<\/p>\n

As India\u2019s geopolitical, economic and cultural clout grows, so does its global footprint. China\u2019s \u2018decline<\/a>\u2019, as some have begun to call the conclusion of the country\u2019s four-decade-long economic boom, opens new opportunities for the Indian economy and other developing and emerging countries.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, India reached another milestone when its population officially surpassed that of China<\/a>, which had been the world\u2019s most populous country for more than 300 years<\/a>. While China\u2019s shrinking, rapidly ageing<\/a> population is likely to impede economic growth and may curtail Beijing\u2019s geopolitical ambitions, India\u2014one of the world\u2019s youngest<\/a> countries, with a median age of 28.2<\/a>\u2014is poised to reap a huge demographic dividend.<\/p>\n

But the driving force behind India\u2019s emergence as a major global power is its rapid economic growth. While India\u2019s GDP is still smaller than China\u2019s, the country is the world\u2019s fastest-growing<\/a> major economy and is projected to account for 12.9% of global growth<\/a> over the next five years, surpassing the United States\u2019 11.3% share.<\/p>\n

In addition to fuelling a consumption boom, India\u2019s youthful population is also driving innovation, as evidenced by the country\u2019s world-class information economy and its recent moon landing, which the country managed to achieve despite a national space budget equivalent to roughly 6%<\/a> of what the US spends on space missions. Having already surpassed the United Kingdom, its former colonial ruler, India is poised to overtake<\/a> Japan and Germany to become the world\u2019s third-largest economy by 2030, behind the US and China.<\/p>\n

Given its increasingly unstable neighbourhood, it should come as no surprise that India has the world\u2019s third-largest<\/a> defence budget. The deepening strategic alliance<\/a> between China and Pakistan underscores India\u2019s precarious position as the only country bordering two nuclear-armed revisionist states<\/a> with expansionist ambitions. For the past three years, India has been locked in a tense military standoff<\/a> with China along its Himalayan border. Bilateral relations, marked by intermittent clashes<\/a> in the disputed Tibet\u2013Ladakh border region, are at their lowest point in decades.<\/p>\n

By confronting China despite the risk of a full-scale war, India has challenged Chinese power in a way no other country has done in this century. But despite leaning towards forging closer ties with the West, India remains hesitant to enter into formal military alliances with Western countries.<\/p>\n

Western powers are partly to blame. US President Joe Biden\u2019s reluctance to comment on the Sino-Indian military standoff, let alone openly support India, has sent a clear signal that India is responsible for its own defence. Given that the country\u2019s future growth hinges on its ability to defend itself against external threats, India will likely step up its efforts to modernise its conventional armed forces and enhance its nuclear deterrence.<\/p>\n

The escalating geopolitical rivalry between China and India could also impede efforts to unite the global south and transform the BRICS group into a credible alternative to the G20 and G7. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) recently agreed to expand the group by adding six new members<\/a>: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina and Iran. Given the 11 members\u2019 divergent interests, BRICS+ will likely find it even harder to reach consensus on any major issue.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, China\u2019s economic slump could prompt President Xi Jinping to double down on his expansionist agenda. Biden recently characterised<\/a> the stagnating Chinese economy as a \u2018ticking time bomb\u2019, warning that, \u2018When bad folks have problems, they do bad things.\u2019 China\u2019s controversial new national map<\/a>, which depicts vast areas of India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Bhutan (and even a bit of Russia) as Chinese territory, underscores the threat posed by Beijng\u2019s increasingly aggressive behaviour.<\/p>\n

In addition to these external threats, India\u2019s future will be shaped by its response to domestic economic challenges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made great strides<\/a> in modernising the notoriously outdated Indian bureaucracy and promoting e-government to reduce red tape and attract foreign direct investment. His government has invested heavily in upgrading and expanding the country\u2019s infrastructure, implemented regulatory reforms and sought to boost domestic manufacturing through the \u2018Make in India\u2019 initiative<\/a>. But to transform itself into a global manufacturing hub, India must invest in human capital, particularly in education and training<\/a>.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s size and diversity also pose enormous challenges. India may be the first developing economy that, from the beginning, has pursued modernisation and prosperity through a democratic system. But as one of the world\u2019s most culturally diverse countries, its seemingly never-ending election cycle has often fuelled division and polarisation.<\/p>\n

But, despite its US-style polarised politics<\/a>, India\u2019s democratic framework has served as a pillar of stability. By fostering open expression and dialogue, the Indian political system has empowered grassroots communities and individuals, enabling members of historically marginalised classes and castes to rise to the highest levels of policymaking.<\/p>\n

Whether India can maintain its upward trajectory will depend on its ability to maintain political stability, rapid economic growth, domestic and external security, and a forward-looking foreign policy. Success would enhance India\u2019s global standing<\/a> and help advance US interests<\/a> in the Indo-Pacific, the world\u2019s new geopolitical fulcrum and home to its fastest-growing economies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s sharp economic slowdown has raised alarm bells around the world. But it has also thrown into relief the rise of another demographic powerhouse next door. 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