{"id":82659,"date":"2023-10-03T06:00:43","date_gmt":"2023-10-02T19:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=82659"},"modified":"2023-10-02T22:05:32","modified_gmt":"2023-10-02T11:05:32","slug":"from-the-bookshelf-overreach-how-china-derailed-its-peaceful-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/from-the-bookshelf-overreach-how-china-derailed-its-peaceful-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"From the bookshelf: \u2018Overreach: how China derailed its peaceful rise\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

How did Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping in just a decade manage to dismantle the collective leadership system carefully crafted by Deng Xiaoping, sour China\u2019s relations with most of its neighbours and set China on a collision course with the United States? Western analysts generally focus on the authoritarian policies put in place by Xi since his rise to power in 2012, while Chinese scholars blame Western overreaction, starting in 2017 with US President Donald Trump, who made it clear that he wanted to prevent China from replacing the US as the global hegemon.<\/p>\n

In Overreach: how China derailed its peaceful rise<\/em><\/a>, Susan Shirk seeks explanations more widely. She focuses in particular on the era of Xi\u2019s predecessor, CCP General Secretary Hu Jintao, who in her view set the stage for much of what has happened under Xi. Shirk has been following Chinese politics for decades, has published extensively on China and currently chairs the 21st Century China Center of the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego. She has also served as US deputy assistant secretary of state responsible for East Asia and the Pacific.<\/p>\n

Hu Jintao is generally seen as a weak leader who failed to build on the reforms initiated by his predecessor, Jiang Zemin. His term in office (2002\u20132012) is usually considered a \u2018lost decade\u2019. However, Shirk reminds us that much of China\u2019s current overreach started under Hu. China\u2019s fortification of rocks and shoals in the South China Sea gained pace in the early 2000s, its coastguard began to harass other countries\u2019 ships in 2006, and the global financial crisis of 2008\u201309 boosted Beijing\u2019s confidence and marked the start of a more openly assertive foreign policy.<\/p>\n

Shirk ascribes this early overreach to Hu\u2019s inability to manage the politburo standing committee, China\u2019s top decision-making body. When Hu took over from Jiang, he increased the size of the standing committee from seven to nine, elevating the bosses responsible for internal security and propaganda to the committee.<\/p>\n

However, in contrast to his strong-willed predecessors, the low-key Hu viewed himself simply as the first among equals. This left the expanded standing committee unwieldy and rudderless. As a result, the committee\u2019s powerful members, often referred to as the \u2018nine dragons\u2019, each acted independently to expand their fiefdoms and resources, with Hu unable to control them. Instead of the collective leadership intended by Deng, the standing committee was sometimes referred to as simply a collection of leaders.<\/p>\n

Shirk cites numerous examples of poor coordination. In 2007, the People\u2019s Liberation Army tested an anti-satellite weapon by shooting down one of its own satellites, in the process spreading debris and endangering the satellites of other countries. When questioned by the US, China\u2019s Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of the test. Coordination was particularly weak in the South China Sea, with the Foreign Ministry, navy, coastguard and fishing groups led by provincial governments all independently stirring up disputes in the name of the national interest.<\/p>\n

As Deng\u2019s policy of \u2018hiding one\u2019s strength and biding one\u2019s time\u2019 started to unravel, Hu \u2018sent the pendulum swinging back to Xi\u2019s Mao-style overconcentration of power\u2019, Shirk writes. Xi inherited a governance system that was poorly coordinated and deeply corrupt, but with the foundations for overreach already firmly in place. As one Chinese entrepreneur described it, \u2018Deng Xiaoping unplugged the Party\u2019s Leninist machine, but Xi just put in the plug and it started up right away.\u2019<\/p>\n

Overreach<\/em> is thoroughly researched and brims with information on events during the Hu and Xi eras obtained from interviews with well-informed insiders. A particularly useful chapter titled \u2018Inside the black box\u2019 outlines the workings of a political system \u2018almost as opaque as North Korea\u2019s\u2019.<\/p>\n

Under Xi, foreign policy went to extremes, security and anti-corruption measures were tightened and paranoia grew, with cadres at all levels scrambling to please the leader. As Xi continued to rein in the private sector and the economy faltered, dissatisfaction within the CCP also deepened. This reportedly came to a head at the party\u2019s informal gathering in Beidahe<\/a> last August.<\/p>\n

Shirk\u2019s book is a pleasure to read, but would have benefited from a final round of fact-checking. Her assertion that \u2018Chinese diplomats now lead more than fifteen UN agencies\u2019 is an exaggeration. And Shirk claims that APEC was \u2018founded by the United States\u2019, without any reference to the pivotal role played by Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke.<\/p>\n

These minor errors notwithstanding, Shirk makes a valuable contribution to our understanding of how relations between China and the West have deteriorated, noting that China went into overdrive well before Xi came to power.<\/p>\n

Shirk concludes with recommendations for China and the US to bring their relationship onto a more even keel. Some are practical, while others, in the current inflamed environment, are unrealistic. But it\u2019s hard to disagree with Shirk that re-establishing consultations and getting the two countries\u2019 leaders to meet regularly would be a good place to start.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How did Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping in just a decade manage to dismantle the collective leadership system carefully crafted by Deng Xiaoping, sour China\u2019s relations with most of its neighbours and set …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1230,"featured_media":82660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[32,52,471,2380,204],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrom the bookshelf: \u2018Overreach: how China derailed its peaceful rise\u2019 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/from-the-bookshelf-overreach-how-china-derailed-its-peaceful-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From the bookshelf: \u2018Overreach: how China derailed its peaceful rise\u2019 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How did Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping in just a decade manage to dismantle the collective leadership system carefully crafted by Deng Xiaoping, sour China\u2019s relations with most of its neighbours and set ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/from-the-bookshelf-overreach-how-china-derailed-its-peaceful-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-02T19:00:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-02T11:05:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-156191535.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"673\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Robert Wihtol\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Robert Wihtol\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/from-the-bookshelf-overreach-how-china-derailed-its-peaceful-rise\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-156191535.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/GettyImages-156191535.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":673,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - Chinese paramilitary police march past a sign saying \\\"Serve the Party and the People\\\" at their barracks beside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on November 12, 2012. 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