{"id":82865,"date":"2023-10-11T12:45:08","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T01:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=82865"},"modified":"2023-10-11T12:37:48","modified_gmt":"2023-10-11T01:37:48","slug":"saudi-arabia-and-russia-have-the-west-over-a-barrel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/saudi-arabia-and-russia-have-the-west-over-a-barrel\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi Arabia and Russia have the West over a barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

At a time when the world is struggling to cope with high inflation, the rising cost of living, and the impacts of the Ukraine war and now the Israel\u2013Hamas conflict, a 30\u201340% jump in the price of Brent crude per barrel since July entails serious economic, social and political consequences. The price per barrel is edging towards US$100. While that\u2019s less than the US$130 a barrel reached in April 2022, it could still derail or prolong the global economic recovery. What has caused the price hike and who can moderate it?<\/p>\n

Two oil-producing states from opposite ends of the political spectrum hold the keys to affecting the price of oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia. The former is supposed to be a US ally and the latter is a bitter US adversary. Yet the two countries have acted in concert in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries\u2014Plus (OPEC+) to reduce their oil production in the name of stabilising the market. The Saudis have cut back their output by nearly two million barrels a day from a height of 11 million and Russia has dropped its production by some half a million barrels per day in the past several months, causing a shortage of supply in the global market.<\/p>\n

Undoubtedly, both actors are driven by a desire for more revenue, but their actions also underline an alliance of grievances against the United States. The de facto and power-ambitious Saudi ruler Mohammad bin Salman (widely known as MBS) has acted for domestic and foreign policy reasons. The prince, who wants more revenue to accelerate his vision of socially modernising his kingdom and turning it into an economic powerhouse, has been offside with the US since the advent of President Joe Biden\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n

MBS has, most importantly, resented the president\u2019s early criticisms of him for human rights violations and the release of US intelligence findings that implicated him in the gruesome killing of Saudi dissident and\u00a0Washington Post\u00a0<\/em>columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in October 2018. He has ignored Biden\u2019s request for Saudi restraint in any action that could increase oil prices and his overtures to return Saudi\u2013US relations to their traditional status of close friendship.<\/p>\n

The prince has subtly engaged in a process of diversifying Saudi foreign policy, not to completely debase the kingdom\u2019s special bonds with the US as its main security provider, but to be in a position to deflect Washington\u2019s pressure when required. He has opted for a mutual strengthening of relations with Russia and China. He has cooperated with President Vladimir Putin within the framework of OPEC+ and refrained from openly condemning Russia\u2019s Ukraine aggression. He had very friendly interactions with the Russian leader at the G20 summits prior to the International Criminal Court\u2019s issuing of a warrant for Putin\u2019s arrest for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Meanwhile, he has offered to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. This must be disconcerting for Washington, which has sought to limit Russia\u2019s revenue and isolate and punish Putin for his Ukraine adventure.<\/p>\n

Under MBS, Saudi Arabia has strengthened its trade and economic ties with China\u2014the largest importer of Saudi oil. Riyadh has been invited to join\u00a0the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and has even indicated a willingness to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a dialogue member. It has also restored ties with its regional rival, Iran, after China brokered peace talks between the two. And it has been looking to normalise relations with Israel\u2014a US strategic partner and bitter foe of Iran\u2014though that the Israel\u2013Hamas war will likely confound that project.<\/p>\n

Putin has been doing whatever possible to drive a wedge between the US and its allies. He needs more friends and money to fund the war in Ukraine and to deflect Western sanctions, while appreciating the cooperation of Saudi Arabia as the largest and therefore most influential producer in OPEC+. As long as the Saudi\u2013Russian alignment of interests exists, the price of oil is unlikely to drop anytime soon, unless there\u2019s a marked reduction in global consumption, which at this stage doesn\u2019t seem to be on the horizon, despite China\u2019s economic slowdown. Hard times for oil consumers lie ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At a time when the world is struggling to cope with high inflation, the rising cost of living, and the impacts of the Ukraine war and now the Israel\u2013Hamas conflict, a 30\u201340% jump in the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":973,"featured_media":82866,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1314,163,1078,2397],"class_list":["post-82865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-oil-trade","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSaudi Arabia and Russia have the West over a barrel | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/saudi-arabia-and-russia-have-the-west-over-a-barrel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Saudi Arabia and Russia have the West over a barrel | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At a time when the world is struggling to cope with high inflation, the rising cost of living, and the impacts of the Ukraine war and now the Israel\u2013Hamas conflict, a 30\u201340% jump in the ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/saudi-arabia-and-russia-have-the-west-over-a-barrel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-11T01:45:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-11T01:37:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-73375788.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"687\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Amin Saikal\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Amin Saikal\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/saudi-arabia-and-russia-have-the-west-over-a-barrel\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-73375788.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/GettyImages-73375788.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":687,\"caption\":\"SHAYBAH, SAUDI ARABIA - MARCH 2003: A worker stands at a pipeline, watching a flare stack at the Saudi Aramco oil field complex facilities at Shaybah in the Rub' al Khali (\\\"empty quarter\\\") desert on March 2003 in Shaybah, Saudi Arabia. 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