{"id":83216,"date":"2023-10-30T14:30:13","date_gmt":"2023-10-30T03:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=83216"},"modified":"2024-01-15T13:27:27","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T02:27:27","slug":"scoping-out-the-2024-intelligence-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/scoping-out-the-2024-intelligence-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Scoping out the 2024 intelligence review"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

\u2018Our intelligence agencies underpin our national security objectives, including helping to safeguard our sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain security environment. This Independent Review will make sure that our intelligence agencies are best positioned to serve the Australian national interest, respond to future capability and workforce challenges, and continue to protect our security, prosperity and values.\u2019<\/p>\n

With those words<\/a>, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese launched the fourth major review of Australian intelligence this century.<\/p>\n

Former departmental secretary Heather Smith and former Office of National Assessments director-general Richard Maude will lead the review of the national intelligence community, which is expected to report in mid-2024. The review\u2019s terms of reference<\/a> were announced in September, and a call was put out for invitation for public submissions, which are due by 24 November.<\/p>\n

What will the review examine? ASPI\u2019s statecraft and intelligence program offered some ideas<\/a> earlier this year, identifying as broad priorities attracting, building and retaining a skilled workforce; adapting to rapid and profound technological change; and leveraging more, and closer, partnerships.<\/p>\n

As it is, the publicly released terms of reference are enlightening\u2014for what they include and how, and indeed what they don\u2019t include.<\/p>\n

Acknowledging that the review has an all-encompassing mandate to \u2018prepare findings and recommendations on the NIC<\/em>\u2019 [emphasis added], like previous reviews it is nonetheless charged with focusing on several \u2018related issues\u2019.<\/p>\n

Of the three broad themes identified in ASPI\u2019s earlier research, only one gets a guernsey now: the intelligence workforce. Remarkably, technology isn\u2019t mentioned at all. Partnerships might be there, but only implicitly. What\u2019s more, there\u2019s no reference to collaboration or innovation. Nor do the terms of reference engage directly with other salient issues<\/a>, such as the specific question of whether the concept of an expanded NIC is undermined or reinforced by Australia\u2019s accelerating strategic circumstances. However, the reviewers are asked to look at<\/a> how \u2018the NIC serves, and is positioned to serve, national interests and the needs of government, including in response to the recommendations of recent reviews relevant to defence and security, and the evolving security environment\u2019.<\/p>\n

Delving into what is included, it\u2019s readily apparent that little argument is envisaged about the relative merits of the establishment of the Office of National Intelligence in 2018. The terms of reference go out of their way to specify consideration of the outcomes of the 2017 review, such as the \u2018expansion to create the NIC\u2019 and the \u2018effectiveness and outcomes of the Joint Capability Fund\u2019\u2014but only \u2018the benefits<\/em> [emphasis added] of the establishment of [ONI]\u2019 are within scope.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgement of the significant investments made in agencies since 2017 (unsaid, but most notably the Australian Signals Directorate<\/a>, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation<\/a>\u00a0and the Australian Secret Intelligence Service<\/a>) is important. These circumstances distinguish this review from its predecessors (which more typically served as catalysts for investment) and require a different kind of approach, signalled by the intention to examine project \u2018status, risks and potential mitigations\u2019.<\/p>\n

Workforce is identified as the principal capability focus, and the terms of reference indicate that the review intends to cut to the chase by asking about options if \u2018foreshadowed recruitment targets cannot be met\u2019.<\/p>\n

The NIC\u2019s preparedness for conflict is also mentioned. Hopefully that will be intepreted broadly enough to include how national intelligence capabilities can best support deterrence (and \u2018national defence\u2019) as set out in the 2023 defence strategic review.<\/p>\n

Somewhat oddly, the penultimate topic highlighted calls out the NIC\u2019s use of the classification system. This might be a case of viewing a real, fundamental but unacknowledged challenge\u2014that is, how to better integrate intelligence capabilities and outcomes into Australian policymaking\u2014through the keyhole of a minister\u2019s or secretary\u2019s particularly grumpy morning. Or it could, confusedly, mean something else entirely.<\/p>\n

What about what\u2019s missing? As noted, the most striking absence is technology and the global data revolution. There\u2019s no reference to data or the abundance of open-source intelligence (or to whether institutional changes within intelligence communities might be required to undertake OSINT<\/a>). Nor is there any reference to disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, quantum, bioengineering or any other technology identified in the seminal US \u2018intelligence edge\u2019 project<\/a> or\u2014closer to home\u2014to the interplay between secrecy, sovereignty and sharing<\/a> resulting from profound technological shifts.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also no reference to integration or collaboration within the NIC except by way of examining implementation of the 2017 recommendations. Hopefully that doesn\u2019t preclude an examination of potential efficiency initiatives like shared services between operationally sensitive agencies, taking a leaf out of the UK\u2019s Single Intelligence Account.<\/p>\n

Disappointingly, but understandably, the terms of reference stay well within the lane markings of the NIC. There\u2019s no going near the vexed issue of national-security policymaking or the enduring dead hand of portfolio when it comes to capability development and national decision-making. There\u2019s an enduring missing middle in the space between the review of the NIC and the defence strategic review.<\/p>\n

Less understandably, there\u2019s no reference to learning lessons from the past. It may have disappeared into a memory hole amid the polycrisis, but only two years ago Australia exited ignominiously its 20-year commitment in Afghanistan. Nor is there any reference to lessons from the Russia\u2013Ukraine war, or to new or revived uses of intelligence like \u2018strategic downgrades<\/a>\u2019, although that could be what the penultimate term of reference is trying to get to in rather a tortured fashion. Nor is there any mention of strategic warning<\/a>, the utility of net assessment or intelligence diplomacy<\/a>. There\u2019s also no reference to the unique grey-zone asks of intelligence or the heightening intelligence contest internationally<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Finally, it goes without saying that there\u2019s no overt reference to the most significant factor facing the NIC: China. Repeating our suggestion<\/a> from June, we hope this absence is rectified in the review\u2019s public report.<\/p>\n

Not all projectiles need be brickbats. Bouquets are due too. Some absences are welcome. There\u2019s no agonising over justifying intelligence itself, even in an open-source world<\/a>. And it\u2019s excellent news that the review isn\u2019t constrained by unnecessarily prejudicial fiscal limits inherent in the instructions provided to the reviewers in 2011 and to a lesser extent in 2017. Instead, the reviewers can tackle capability questions forthrightly and leave budget decisions where they belong\u2014with government.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, all of the issues we\u2019ve identified as absent can still reasonably be drawn in under the banner of reviewing \u2018the NIC\u2019. So too might other big-picture challenges not specified in the terms of reference, including Australian intelligence\u2019s potential roles in addressing future pandemics<\/a> and catastrophic risks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In that regard we\u2019re confident, and hopeful, that the reviewers will flesh out the terms of reference into a deeper, more joined-up account of Australian intelligence and its future\u2014to the ultimate benefit of the NIC and all Australians.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018Our intelligence agencies underpin our national security objectives, including helping to safeguard our sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain security environment. This Independent Review will make sure that our intelligence agencies are best positioned to serve …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1690,"featured_media":83218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[416,343,170,700],"class_list":["post-83216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-government","tag-australian-intelligence-community","tag-intelligence","tag-review","dinkus-2024-independent-intelligence-review"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nScoping out the 2024 intelligence review | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/scoping-out-the-2024-intelligence-review\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scoping out the 2024 intelligence review | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u2018Our intelligence agencies underpin our national security objectives, including helping to safeguard our sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain security environment. 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