{"id":83295,"date":"2023-11-03T10:30:19","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T23:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=83295"},"modified":"2023-11-03T10:24:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T23:24:05","slug":"albanese-must-not-play-xis-trade-games","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/albanese-must-not-play-xis-trade-games\/","title":{"rendered":"Albanese must not play Xi\u2019s trade games"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The well-worn observation that China is at once Australia\u2019s largest trading partner and its primary security concern is often portrayed as a conundrum in which trade-offs may be needed.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s best strategy these days is to play on this perceived tension and create the sense that if we can get the relationship \u2018back on track\u2019 and scrubbed of diplomatic controversies, Canberra will have an economic relationship Australians can take to the bank.<\/p>\n

This is the context in which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will arrive in Beijing this weekend. It will be a formidable diplomatic test, with much attention on whether he raises issues such as the almost\u00a0five-year arbitrary detention<\/a> of Australian writer Yang Hengjun, and the prospect of gains including further guarantees of unwinding trade sanctions.<\/p>\n

Rather than make this a box-ticking exercise,\u00a0Albanese needs to demonstrate<\/a>\u00a0a framing philosophy that spells out consistency across Australia\u2019s positions, including that economic and security issues won\u2019t be dealt with separately and that we will not return to the era of compromising our sovereignty in the interests of a prosperous relationship.<\/p>\n

Such a message would serve as a deterrent: there is no point trying to bully us. This clarity will be vital given that Albanese will join his trade minister and a business delegation in Shanghai, so he must show that Australia hasn\u2019t divorced economics from security.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s growing concern that the milder rhetoric and diplomacy with which the Albanese government has approached China is in danger of lurching into silence and inaction.\u00a0Australian reticence<\/a> on Beijing\u2019s breaches in the South China Sea\u00a0and the decisions to call off the World Trade Organization cases\u2014enabling Beijing to escape international judgement on its coercive behaviour\u2014were starting to suggest self-imposed censorship.<\/p>\n

Australia cannot pick and choose the international rules it upholds, or when to hold others to account for international misconduct.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Beijing will be looking to bed down Australian quiescence with a smiling public face conveying that the relationship is \u2018back to normal\u2019, by which it means Canberra subordinates its security interests to the economic relationship.<\/p>\n

President Xi Jinping will continue to press for a pathway to accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a return to silence on the South China Sea, a muted Quad and a ceiling on the Five Eyes intelligence grouping, forestalling any ministerial-level meetings.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, China wants to be able to say that Australia\u2019s change of position has allowed this visit amid stabilising relations, as though we were rebellious teenagers who have come to our senses.<\/p>\n

Xi will encourage Albanese and Australia to\u00a0limit themselves<\/a> to the hesitancy of a \u2018middle power\u2019 that lacks agency,\u00a0when in fact Australia in 2023 is a regional power with global influence, responsibilities and values that include respect for sovereignty, international rules and human rights.<\/p>\n

For a self-confident Australia, there is no sugar-coating many issues with Beijing, nor any getting around the fact that areas for cooperation are limited because we have fundamentally different views on the future of our region and world.<\/p>\n

Knowing this, the Chinese government has been clearing the decks for the visit by releasing detained journalist Cheng Lei and flagging an end to unjustified tariffs on Australian wine.<\/p>\n

But Australian positions have also been locked in, setting an important trajectory for Albanese. The prime minister\u2019s visit to Washington last week\u00a0ended our awkward silence<\/a>\u00a0on the South China Sea, yielding a joint statement that backed the Philippines by condemning China\u2019s \u2018dangerous\u2019 actions around the Second Thomas Shoal.<\/p>\n

And the head of the Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation, Mike Burgess,\u00a0joined<\/a> his Five Eyes counterparts last month in reminding everyone that Beijing\u2019s malicious cyber activity is high on the list of topics that can\u2019t be avoided.<\/p>\n

On AUKUS,\u00a0Albanese\u2019s biggest challenge<\/a>\u00a0will be to persuade Xi that the pact is going to work. Given that the biggest determinant of AUKUS success is political will, the prime minister should leave no doubt that he and his British and American counterparts are committed.<\/p>\n

Beijing fears the collective symbolism and substance of AUKUS. It doesn\u2019t realistically expect Australia to pull out, but it will continue portraying it as a cost for which Canberra needs to atone through other concessions.<\/p>\n

Australia should be prepared to make clear that it will actively employ its economic clout in the pursuit of greater strategic goals, if needed.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean decoupling but, as the US has done with semiconductors, being prepared to cut China off from strategic resources such as critical minerals if those resources will power Beijing\u2019s aggression.<\/p>\n

Albanese needs to raise all these issues and be clear that they sit within an enduring world view in which international rules keep us safer and respect for all countries\u2019 sovereignty is an essential element of the global system.<\/p>\n

Pulling punches on international security in the hope of frictionless diplomacy and chasing short-term economic gain doesn\u2019t lead to authoritarian reciprocity. They only show that aggression and coercion work.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The well-worn observation that China is at once Australia\u2019s largest trading partner and its primary security concern is often portrayed as a conundrum in which trade-offs may be needed. Beijing\u2019s best strategy these days is …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1559,"featured_media":83299,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3192,2212,365],"class_list":["post-83295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anthony-albanese","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAlbanese must not play Xi\u2019s trade games | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/albanese-must-not-play-xis-trade-games\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Albanese must not play Xi\u2019s trade games | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The well-worn observation that China is at once Australia\u2019s largest trading partner and its primary security concern is often portrayed as a conundrum in which trade-offs may be needed. 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