{"id":83550,"date":"2023-11-13T14:30:57","date_gmt":"2023-11-13T03:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=83550"},"modified":"2023-11-13T11:58:27","modified_gmt":"2023-11-13T00:58:27","slug":"the-wars-of-the-new-world-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-wars-of-the-new-world-order\/","title":{"rendered":"The wars of the new world order"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The crises, conflicts and wars that are currently raging highlight just how profoundly the geopolitical landscape has changed in recent years, as great-power rivalries have again become central to international relations. With the wars in Gaza and Ukraine exacerbating global divisions, an even more profound geopolitical reconfiguration\u2014including a shift to a new world order\u2014may well be in the works.<\/p>\n

These two wars heighten the risk of a third, over Taiwan. No one\u2014least of all Chinese President Xi Jinping\u2014can watch the United States transfer huge amounts of artillery munitions, smart bombs, missiles and other weaponry to Ukraine and Israel without recognising that American stockpiles are being depleted<\/a>. For Xi, who has called Taiwan\u2019s incorporation into the People\u2019s Republic a \u2018historic mission<\/a>\u2019, the longer these wars continue, the better<\/a>.<\/p>\n

US President Joe Biden understands the stakes and is now seeking to defuse tensions with China. Notably, after sending a string of cabinet officials to Beijing, Biden\u2019s planned summit talks with Xi on the sidelines at the APEC forum this week in San Francisco are set to steal<\/a> the spotlight. And he and his G7 partners have stressed<\/a> that they are seeking to \u2018de-risk\u2019 their relationship with China, not \u2018decouple\u2019 from the world\u2019s second-largest economy.<\/p>\n

Whatever one calls it, this process is set to reshape the global financial order, as well as investment and trade patterns. Already, trade and investment flows are changing in ways that suggest that the global economy may be split into two blocs; for example, China now trades more<\/a> with the global south than with the West. Despite the high costs<\/a> of economic fragmentation, China, seeking to reduce its vulnerability to future pressure, has been quietly decoupling large sections of its economy from the West.<\/p>\n

In no small part, the US has itself to blame for this situation. By actively facilitating<\/a> China\u2019s economic rise for four decades, it helped to create the greatest rival it has ever faced. Today, China boasts the world\u2019s largest navy and coast guard<\/a>, and is overtly challenging Western dominance over the global financial system and in international institutions. In fact, China is working hard to build an alternative world order<\/a>, with itself at the centre.<\/p>\n

Though the current system is often referred to in neutral-sounding terms such as the \u2018rules-based global order\u2019, it is undoubtedly centred on the US. Not only did the US largely make the rules<\/a> on which that order is based, but it also seems to believe itself exempt from key rules and norms, such as those prohibiting interference<\/a> in other countries\u2019 internal affairs. International law is powerful against the powerless, but powerless against the powerful.<\/p>\n

When it comes to creating an alternative world order, the current conflict-ridden global environment may well work in China\u2019s favour. After all, it was war that gave rise to the US-led global order, including the institutions that underpin it, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the United Nations. Even reforming these institutions meaningfully has proved very difficult during peacetime.<\/p>\n

This is certainly true for the UN, which appears to be in irreversible decline and increasingly marginalised in international affairs. The hardening gridlock<\/a> at the UN Security Council has caused more responsibility to be shifted to the UN General Assembly, which was forced, notably, to adopt a resolution<\/a> on the war in Gaza calling for a \u2018humanitarian truce\u2019 and an end to Israel\u2019s siege. But the General Assembly is fundamentally weak, and, in contrast to the Security Council, its resolutions are not legally binding<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As US-led institutions deteriorate, so too does America\u2019s authority beyond its borders. Even Israel<\/a> and Ukraine<\/a>\u2014which depend on the US as their largest military, political and economic backer\u2014have at times spurned US advice. Israel rebuffed<\/a> America\u2019s counsel to scale back its military attacks and do more to minimise civilian casualties in an already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. US officials have blamed Ukraine\u2019s wide dispersal<\/a> of forces for its stalled counteroffensive.<\/p>\n

Beyond the global reordering that the Sino-American rivalry appears to be causing, important regional shifts are possible. A protracted conflict in Gaza could set in motion a geopolitical reorganisation in the Greater Middle East, where nearly every major power\u2014except<\/a> Egypt, Iran and Turkey\u2014is a 20th-century construct created by the West (especially the British and the French). Already, Israel\u2019s war is strengthening the geopolitical role<\/a> of gas-rich Qatar, a regional gadfly that has become an international rogue elephant<\/a> by funding violent jihadists, including Hamas.<\/p>\n

If the conflict spreads beyond Gaza, the geopolitical implications would be even further-reaching. Whatever comes next, Ukraine may well be among the biggest losers. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged<\/a>, the war in Gaza already \u2018takes away the focus\u2019 from his country\u2019s fight against Russia at a time when Ukraine can ill afford a slowdown in Western aid.<\/p>\n

Yet, more forces and trends\u2014including Russia\u2019s increasingly militarised economy, China\u2019s stalling growth and the growing economic weight of the global south\u2014are making fundamental changes to the international order more likely. Meanwhile, the world is grappling with widening inequality, rising authoritarianism, the rapid development of transformative technologies like artificial intelligence, environmental degradation<\/a> and climate change.<\/p>\n

Though the details are impossible to know, a fundamental global geopolitical rebalancing now appears all but inevitable. The spectre of a sustained clash between the West and its rivals\u2014especially China, Russia and the Islamic world\u2014looms large.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The crises, conflicts and wars that are currently raging highlight just how profoundly the geopolitical landscape has changed in recent years, as great-power rivalries have again become central to international relations. With the wars in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":83554,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,772,240,1650,714,31],"class_list":["post-83550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-geopolitics","tag-israel","tag-rules-based-order","tag-ukraine","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe wars of the new world order | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-wars-of-the-new-world-order\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The wars of the new world order | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The crises, conflicts and wars that are currently raging highlight just how profoundly the geopolitical landscape has changed in recent years, as great-power rivalries have again become central to international relations. 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