{"id":837,"date":"2012-08-21T06:00:59","date_gmt":"2012-08-20T20:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=837"},"modified":"2013-01-24T14:51:01","modified_gmt":"2013-01-24T04:51:01","slug":"white-papers-timing-is-everything","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/white-papers-timing-is-everything\/","title":{"rendered":"White Papers: timing is everything"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Timing<\/a><\/figure>\n

It is often said that good fortune in politics comes down to timing\u2014the same could be said of policy. Excellent policy work can be swept away by a change of government or ministerial reshuffle. Looking back on the last forty years, it\u2019s interesting to examine both the timing of the launch of previous Defence White Papers and the impact that subsequent federal elections had on their success (see table below for dates).<\/p>\n

Four of the last six Defence White Papers were produced a year or more in advance of a federal election, that is, in the middle of a government\u2019s term. It\u2019s a safe approach: it gives governments time to bed down difficult policy issues; reduces temptation for oppositions to campaign against proposals; and gives Defence time to start implementing policies. In only two of the six cases\u20141972 and 1987\u2014was the release of a white paper closer than eleven months to an election.<\/p>\n

In his memoir, Defence Policy-Making: A Close-Up View, 1950\u20131980<\/em><\/a> <\/em>(PDF), Sir Arthur Tange recounts that the McMahon Government directed that a defence white paper be prepared in 1972. Defence shaped the review around a closer focus on what today we would call Australia\u2019s inner arc and away from Southeast Asia. According to Tange:<\/p>\n

\u2026the Prime Minister threw the status of the document into confusion by deciding against presenting it as a White Paper expressing government policy, and instead declaring it to be a \u2018Departmental Review\u2019. \u2026 In effect the Department was lumbered with responsibility for a hybrid\u2014a document that included views we knew the Government would want to include which we did not share, and an analysis of the desirable strategic posture that failed to receive government endorsement. \u2026 McMahon\u2019s caution might well have been for fear of devil in the detail.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Seven months later McMahon started his losing election campaign against Whitlam and the 1972 Australian Defence Review<\/em> largely sank from sight. Tange regretted that he had tried to pack too many new ideas into the paper in what looks to have been just a few months of preparation.<\/p>\n

The 1987 Defence White Paper was presented even closer to an election. Its release on 19 March 1987 was less than four months before the 11 July poll. Yet this white paper is widely regarded as being a success. Why did it not disappear like the 1972 version? Two reasons stand out: first, although very late in the political cycle, the White Paper had been preceded in 1986 by Paul Dibb\u2019s Review of Australian Defence Capability<\/em>. The Dibb report carried the weight of advancing new policy ideas, and they were debated for the better part of a year. By the time the 1987 White Paper was launched a broad consensus had been built around its policies. The second reason for the 1987 White Paper\u2019s longevity was, of course, that Labor was re-elected at the following poll, and Kim Beazley remained as Defence Minister for three years after the release of his policy statement.<\/p>\n

We can\u2019t be precise about either the timing of the 2013 White Paper or the next federal election, but it\u2019s likely that the two will be close. The earliest possible date<\/a> for a joint House of Representatives and half Senate election is 3 August; the latest possible is 30 November 2013. (An election for the House of Representatives only could happen on any Saturday 33 days after the House is dissolved.) As for the Defence White Paper, it\u2019s clear that there\u2019s nothing remotely ready to be launched soon. In 2013 it\u2019s unlikely to be released in advance of the Budget, which will be early May, so a best guess for a launch would be in late May, three to six months before an election.<\/p>\n

In short, the timing for the next Defence White Paper is in very high risk territory. Unlike the 1987 White Paper there\u2019s been no preceding Dibb report to help build consensus. Both Government and Opposition will be gearing for an election and may be inclined to treat the white paper in that context rather than in the less heated \u2018mid-term\u2019 environment. It remains to be seen whether the new White Paper goes the way of the \u2018lost\u2019 defence review of 1972, or survives like Defence of Australia 1987.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
White Paper Statement<\/strong><\/td>\nMinister<\/strong><\/td>\nDate of release<\/strong><\/td>\nDate of subsequent federal election<\/strong><\/td>\nGovernment returned or defeated?<\/strong><\/td>\nTime in months between WP Release and next election<\/strong><\/td>\nMinister\u2019s tenure in days or months after release of WP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Australian Defence Review<\/td>\nDavid Fairbairn<\/td>\n29 March 1972<\/td>\n2 December 1972<\/td>\nDefeated<\/td>\n8 months<\/td>\n8 months to change of Government<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Australian Defence<\/td>\nJim Killen<\/td>\n4 November 1976<\/td>\n10 December 1977<\/td>\nReturned<\/td>\n13 months<\/td>\n66 months to May 1982 reshuffle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Defence of Australia 1987<\/td>\nKim Beazley<\/td>\n19 March 1987<\/td>\n11 July 1987<\/td>\nReturned<\/td>\n4 months<\/td>\n37 months to April 1990 reshuffle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Defending Australia<\/td>\nRobert Ray<\/td>\n30 November 1994<\/td>\n2 March 1996<\/td>\nDefeated<\/td>\n16 months<\/td>\n15 months to change of government<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Defence 2000: Our Future Defence Force<\/td>\nJohn Moore<\/td>\n6 December 2000<\/td>\n10 November 2001<\/td>\nReturned<\/td>\n11 months<\/td>\n55 days to January 2001 reshuffle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030<\/td>\nJoel Fitzgibbon<\/td>\n2 May 2009<\/td>\n21 August 2010<\/td>\nReturned<\/td>\n15 months<\/td>\n33 days resigned 4 June 2009<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
White Paper 2013<\/td>\nStephen Smith<\/td>\nFirst half of 2013<\/td>\n3 August to 30 November 2013???<\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\n3 to 6 months???<\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Peter Jennings<\/a>\u00a0is executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Image courtesy of Flickr user Isobel<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is often said that good fortune in politics comes down to timing\u2014the same could be said of policy. Excellent policy work can be swept away by a change of government or ministerial reshuffle. Looking …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":3588,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[17,1425,83],"class_list":["post-837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-defence-white-paper-2013","tag-australia","tag-defence-white-paper-2013","tag-elections"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhite Papers: timing is everything | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/white-papers-timing-is-everything\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"White Papers: timing is everything | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It is often said that good fortune in politics comes down to timing\u2014the same could be said of policy. 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