{"id":83718,"date":"2023-11-22T12:30:51","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T01:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=83718"},"modified":"2023-11-22T12:27:37","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T01:27:37","slug":"why-the-us-and-its-partners-cant-afford-to-abandon-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-the-us-and-its-partners-cant-afford-to-abandon-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the US and its partners can\u2019t afford to abandon Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In recent weeks, US President Joe Biden has boldly referred to the United States as the world\u2019s \u2018indispensable nation<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

But when the term was first coined\u2014by Secretary of State\u00a0Madeleine Albright<\/a>\u00a0in the 1990s\u2014the world was a markedly different place. The Cold War had just ended, with America victorious. It faced no peer competitors, or even the prospect of one on the horizon. The events of 9\/11 were yet to occur.<\/p>\n

In short, American leadership of the global order seemed not only assured, but also likely to endure for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

Today, though, claims about both the necessity and the capacity of the US to provide global leadership are increasingly being put to the test. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East\u2014in addition to ongoing competition with China\u2014are jostling for US attention and resources.<\/p>\n

At a time when Republican Party\u00a0infighting<\/a>\u00a0has brought the government itself close to paralysis, there\u2019s a looming sense that the US will struggle to provide the type of blanket\u00a0world leadership<\/a>\u2014and the assurance that comes with it\u2014in the way it has done before.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s therefore not surprising that another\u00a0round of commentary<\/a>\u00a0has emerged about the need for the US to pressure Ukraine to accept a peace deal.<\/p>\n

This seems counterintuitive for a couple of reasons. For one thing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has no incentive to negotiate a peace deal\u2014and nor does Russian President Vladimir Putin, for that matter.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Biden administration has consistently reaffirmed its\u00a0commitment<\/a>\u00a0to supply Ukraine with military, economic and humanitarian aid\u2014even though Kyiv continues to chafe at Washington\u2019s\u00a0reticence<\/a>\u00a0to provide it with weapons that might prove more decisive on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

However, Ukraine is seen as potentially low-hanging fruit for those seeking to unburden the US from the many demands on its time and money. This mainly consists of conservative Republicans in Congress and right-wing national-security think tanks.<\/p>\n

There are several arguments put forth by this camp. Crucially, Ukraine\u2019s anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces has thus far failed to yield a decisive breakthrough. Zelensky himself grudgingly admitted<\/a>\u00a0this some months ago.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the US isn\u2019t obliged to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression because it isn\u2019t a NATO member. And a number of prominent conservative American strategists, especially<\/a> those with ties to former president Donald Trump\u2019s administration, have loudly called Ukraine a distraction from the US\u2019s main strategic contest with China.<\/p>\n

Indeed, holding military aid for Ukraine hostage to Republican Party politics was the explicit goal of a small number of maverick Congress members who united to\u00a0oust<\/a>\u00a0former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in October.<\/p>\n

The evangelical conservative Mike Johnson, McCarthy\u2019s eventual successor as speaker, oversaw the passage of a US$14.5 billion\u00a0aid package<\/a>\u00a0for Israel earlier this month. However, he would only countenance further assistance for Kyiv if the Biden administration capitulated to Republican demands for more funding to secure US borders.<\/p>\n

Kyiv has become so concerned about the hold-ups in war funding from the US that it\u00a0dispatched<\/a>\u00a0Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, to Washington last week to rally support.<\/p>\n

Perhaps recognising Washington\u2019s international and domestic woes, the German government has pledged to\u00a0double its military aid<\/a>\u00a0for Ukraine from \u20ac4 billion to \u20ac8 billion in 2024. Additional European funding is also available for Ukrainian security assistance via the\u00a0European Union Peace Facility<\/a>, which had its financial ceiling increased to over \u20ac12 billion this year.<\/p>\n

Yet, there\u2019s also a fly in the ointment. The right-wing\u00a0Hungarian\u00a0government led by Viktor Orban has insisted<\/a> that it will hold up releasing these funds until Hungarian banks (which continue to deal with Russia) are guaranteed not to be blacklisted by the EU as \u2018sponsors of war\u2019.<\/p>\n

Letting Ukraine drop off the West\u2019s radar would be an error of historic significance. For one thing, fractures within Ukraine\u2019s Western democratic supporters are precisely what Putin is counting on.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin calculation here is simple: Russia\u2019s advantages over Ukraine in size and cannon fodder mean it should be able to\u00a0continue its war<\/a>\u00a0for years. And Moscow believes that the West (as Ukraine\u2019s main arms and aid backers) will at some point lose interest and push Kyiv to sue for peace.<\/p>\n

More worryingly, if the US elections in 2024 produce a Trump administration 2.0, it will be springtime for dictators like Putin.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s already clear, for instance, that the far right in the US is drawing up plans for\u00a0Trump loyalists<\/a>\u00a0to be installed in all branches of the security agencies should he win the election.<\/p>\n

A second Trump presidency is therefore likely to be less constrained by US institutional checks and balances than the first, especially given there\u2019s now a GOP-compliant Supreme Court. It will also have an appetite for weeding out domestic enemies of the regime (whom Trump\u00a0recently called \u2018vermin\u2019<\/a>). As a result, we can assume it will be apathetic about any expectations for US global leadership.<\/p>\n

But even without a Trump victory in 2024, going soft on Ukraine sends the message that the West\u2019s much-vaunted values and respect for rules are little more than rhetoric. It would also legitimise conquest as an option that not only goes unpunished, but is tacitly rewarded if those who engage in it aren\u2019t held to account.<\/p>\n

More broadly, a US capitulation on Ukraine would set a chilling precedent that would badly tarnish Washington\u2019s credibility in Japan, Australia, Taiwan and other US partners in the Asia\u2013Pacific. What good is there, they would justifiably ask, in an \u2018indispensable nation\u2019 if it can\u2019t be counted on during times of crisis?<\/p>\n

Perhaps instead of indulging in self-congratulatory labels, it might be wise for US leaders to remember that being indispensable\u2014like beauty\u2014is in the eye of the beholder.\"The<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent weeks, US President Joe Biden has boldly referred to the United States as the world\u2019s \u2018indispensable nation\u2019. But when the term was first coined\u2014by Secretary of State\u00a0Madeleine Albright\u00a0in the 1990s\u2014the world was a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1219,"featured_media":83724,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,325,772,376,163,714],"class_list":["post-83718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-europe","tag-geopolitics","tag-politics","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the US and its partners can\u2019t afford to abandon Ukraine | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-the-us-and-its-partners-cant-afford-to-abandon-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the US and its partners can\u2019t afford to abandon Ukraine | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In recent weeks, US President Joe Biden has boldly referred to the United States as the world\u2019s \u2018indispensable nation\u2019. 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