{"id":83806,"date":"2023-11-28T13:30:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-28T02:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=83806"},"modified":"2023-11-28T13:37:47","modified_gmt":"2023-11-28T02:37:47","slug":"what-winning-an-election-means-in-putins-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-winning-an-election-means-in-putins-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"What \u2018winning\u2019 an election means in Putin\u2019s Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As expected<\/a>, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unofficially begun his campaign for re-election ahead of the presidential election scheduled for 17 March 2024. Exhibitions<\/a> celebrating the Putin era are already on display, and cultural performances are set to tour Russia. Surprisingly, he has yet to officially announce his candidacy.<\/p>\n

The election outcome is, of course, preordained. It\u2019s an open secret that Russian elections are heavily \u2018managed\u2019 and political opposition has been suppressed for decades.<\/p>\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean the election is irrelevant. Putin will almost certainly be re-elected, but to truly \u2018win\u2019 he must convincingly refresh his political mandate.<\/p>\n

Russian elections are theatrical, designed to create the perception of political popularity and a democratic mandate. John le Carre, in his novel Russia house<\/em>, quipped about the failure of Mikhail Gorbachev\u2019s more \u2018open\u2019 glasnost<\/em> approach that \u2018every democratic wish is filtered upwards by means of consultation at all levels, then dumped into the Neva\u2019.<\/p>\n

The failure of Gorbachev\u2019s reforms is well documented. Putin can\u2019t afford to alienate or disregard the Russian public in the same way. He came closest to doing that during his rokirovka<\/em><\/a> with Dmitry Medvedev in 2008\u20132012. Blatantly sidelining the constitution resulted in mass protests in Bolotnaya Square and elsewhere in 2011 and the \u2018March of Millions\u2019 (50,000\u2013100,000 participants) in 2012.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin describes its approach to governing as \u2018sovereign democracy\u2019. The term was first attributed to prominent Putin supporter Vladislav Surkov in 2006. It justifies the centralisation of power and democratic interference on nationalist grounds. As argued by Russia expert Angela Stent, it\u2019s essentially \u2018democratic rhetoric\u2019 with \u2018undemocratic intent\u2019.<\/p>\n

The regime is yet to fall into le Carre\u2019s trap. There\u2019s remarkable tolerance in Russia for Putin\u2019s authoritarianism and he remains broadly popular<\/a> for a variety of reasons. In a recent poll, 62%<\/a> of Russians said they believed the country was heading in the right direction.<\/p>\n

Still, a motivating factor for election management is the Kremlin\u2019s genuine fear of a \u2018colour revolution\u2019. This is partially based on the regime\u2019s understanding of the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin has lamented as a \u2018major humanitarian tragedy<\/a>\u2019 and a \u2018geopolitical catastrophe\u2019<\/a>, and the impact of the August 1991 protests in overcoming the conservative KGB coup in favour of Boris Yeltsin.<\/p>\n

Anti-authoritarian movements swept through the post-Soviet world early in Putin\u2019s tenure: in Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgyzstan in 2005\u2014although Kyrgyzstan quickly devolved back into authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no coincidence that the Kremlin cracked down on the independence of large enterprises and the media following these revolts. For example, it directly targeted Putin\u2019s political opposition by seizing the Yukos oil company in 2003 and imprisoning media baron Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2005. The emergence of the concept of sovereign democracy in 2006 was a justification for anti-democratic electoral interference against a hostile regional trend.<\/p>\n

But interference isn\u2019t without consequences. Political apathy is high, especially in Moscow, and has been the norm for most of Putin\u2019s tenure. His stabilisation of Russia and the country\u2019s economic growth since 2000 created an implicit social contract, sometimes called the \u2018no-participation pact\u2019, wherein the public exchanges political participation for prosperity and higher living standards.<\/p>\n

However, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed have fundamentally challenged this status quo.<\/p>\n

Dissatisfaction and even apathy could eventually become widespread opposition. This is mitigated by the consistent alienation and coercion of the opposition, particularly the assassination of leaders, such as Boris Nemtsov in 2015, or their arrest, as with Alexander Navalny in 2021. But the results of Russia\u2019s regional elections in September indicate that opposition is not wholly irrelevant.<\/p>\n

Kremlin-backed candidates from Putin\u2019s United Russia party unsurprisingly won 15 of the 16 party-list elections for regional parliaments and 19 of the 21 gubernatorial elections. But analysis<\/a> by election researcher Ivan Shukshin shows high levels of fraud in the results. Few regional elections were left undisrupted, particularly those of national importance.<\/p>\n

Moscow\u2019s elections were particularly targeted and featured high levels of non-participation. The capital\u2019s apparent apathy towards Putin suggests that it remains a centre of support for the opposition\u2014the city notably almost elected opposition candidate Navalny mayor in 2013.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin\u2019s treatment of the capital during the Wagner mutiny in June provides another indication of the strength of opposition support there. Moscow was of course quickly fortified in the face of the military threat, but Russia\u2019s state security agency, the FSB, also used \u2018anti-terrorist<\/a>\u2019 powers, including to dispel public gatherings. This was instructive\u2014anti-terror terminology has been used consistently under Putin to justify suppressing democratic and journalistic freedom, silence political opponents and restrain pro-democracy civil-society organisations.<\/p>\n

Concern that Muscovites might seize the opportunity to publicly protest against Putin and the war must have affected this choice, particularly given the anti-war protests<\/a> in the city in 2022. The threat of a protest correlates with its size, and polling indicates that 25%<\/a> of the city\u2019s residents would like to be actively involved in politics (30% of respondents selected the neutral \u2018can\u2019t say\u2019 option).<\/p>\n

Nationally, Russian domestic support for Putin and the Kremlin remains firm, as do mechanisms for electoral management. But the public is not monolithic, and Putin does genuinely have to campaign ahead of next year\u2019s election. Even theatrical elections must keep the audience engaged.<\/p>\n

Over the past few months, the Kremlin has already worked to score some easy political points, particularly through attempts to stabilise the economy.<\/p>\n

Most recently, it reinstated currency controls, creating tensions with Russia\u2019s central bank<\/a>, which preferred other measures of inflation control, raising the key interest rate<\/a> by 2 percentage points to 15% on 27 October to try to further curb high inflation, which hit 6% in the third quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s 2024\u20132026 budget revealed in September features record wartime spending, up 68% on 2023 levels, with the Russian finance minister announcing it contained \u2018everything needed for the front\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Overall spending in 2024 is estimated to be 26.2% higher than in 2023, but the claimed sources of that increased funding are dubious at best. Cutting social services would be highly unpopular, but military defeat would be catastrophic. Already, the Ministry of Finance has announced the reallocation of 6.7 trillion roubles<\/a> (US$75 billion).<\/p>\n

Similarly, unpopular reforms have been stayed. Chiefly, new digital conscription laws<\/a>, passed in mid-April, are yet to be activated. Ongoing high casualties in Ukraine and ineffective offensive operations combined with a renewed post-election political mandate will probably see Putin start using the new system.<\/p>\n

Sanctions and support for Ukraine have compounded the pressure on the Kremlin, and it\u2019s important that it be sustained even as other geopolitical crises require attention and resources.<\/p>\n

Rigged or not, Russia\u2019s election matters\u2014because of the regime\u2019s extensive and obvious interference, not despite it. Through the campaign period, Putin will attempt to dominate information and sell economic success. He will stoke international division and coerce domestic political dissidents.<\/p>\n

A serious challenge to Putin isn\u2019t likely to emerge by March. But it\u2019s worth remembering that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin\u2019s attempted mutiny was unprecedented. At the very least, the election is an important opportunity to observe an opaque political system in one of its rare clearer moments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unofficially begun his campaign for re-election ahead of the presidential election scheduled for 17 March 2024. Exhibitions celebrating the Putin era are already on display, and cultural performances …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1737,"featured_media":83807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[106,753,83,192,163,744],"class_list":["post-83806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-democracy","tag-election","tag-elections","tag-public-opinion","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat \u2018winning\u2019 an election means in Putin\u2019s Russia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-winning-an-election-means-in-putins-russia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What \u2018winning\u2019 an election means in Putin\u2019s Russia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unofficially begun his campaign for re-election ahead of the presidential election scheduled for 17 March 2024. 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