{"id":83978,"date":"2023-12-05T15:55:29","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T04:55:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=83978"},"modified":"2024-01-09T13:34:43","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T02:34:43","slug":"the-thucydides-trap-becomes-the-asia-pacific-theme-song","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-thucydides-trap-becomes-the-asia-pacific-theme-song\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018The Thucydides trap\u2019 becomes the Asia\u2013Pacific theme song"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"709\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-83984\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GettyImages-688031042-1.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GettyImages-688031042-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GettyImages-688031042-1-205x142.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GettyImages-688031042-1-768x532.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em>Thucydides trap: from the Greek historian\u2019s statement that the alarm of the established power at the challenge of the rising power makes war inevitable.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The Asia\u2013Pacific ponders the growing chances of war.<\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s policy community shares the region\u2019s unhappy understanding \u2018that nations can sleep-walk into war, even when rational, objective self-interest on all sides cries out against it\u2019. That nightmare scenario is described by Gareth Evans in the Australian chapter of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cscap.org\/uploads\/CSCAP%20Security%20Outlook%202024%20-%20Final%20(1).pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CSCAP Regional Security Outlook 2024<\/a>, produced by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cscap.org\/uploads\/CSCAP%20Security%20Outlook%202023%20FA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The editor of the annual survey, Ron Huisken, writes that the \u2018relentless intensification of tension and animosity\u2019 between China and the US has \u2018deflated the regional spirit, inflamed quarrels, replaced optimism with trepidation and made Thucydides Trap into something of a regional theme song\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>With that tune in their ears, Huisken notes, prominent commentators around the Asia\u2013Pacific \u2018speak openly about the risk of major power war\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Taking the temperature of the Australian \u2018policy community\u2019, former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans reports broad areas of Canberra agreement:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the \u2018fragile and volatile\u2019 regional security environment<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the most formidable international challenge is \u2018negotiating a course between the two neighbourhood giants, China and the United States\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the need for more resources for defence and foreign policy than \u2018in more complacent decades past\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ASEAN continues to be a \u2018supremely important defuser of cross-border tensions\u2019 in Southeast Asia, but has proved incapable of \u2018any kind of collective resistance to overweening behaviour by China\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the Quad commands \u2018quite strong support\u2019 in Canberra, albeit \u2018more for its optics than any real military substance\u2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Evans says the \u2018alarming vagaries\u2019 of US domestic politics creates concerns about its \u2018will and capacity to stay the course in its long self-appointed role as regional security stabiliser and balancer\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Once a deputy leader of the Labor Party, Evans detects growing tensions in this Labor government over Australia\u2019s relationship with the US, although he sees \u2018no serious inclination anywhere to walk away from the ANZUS alliance\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Evans describes Prime Minister Albanese as \u2018an instinctive straddler\u2019, while \u2018comfortable enough talking Washington talk\u2019. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles is closest to an alliance \u2018true believer\u2019, Evans judges, and Foreign Minister Penny Wong \u2018while always cautious, is more inclined to scepticism, particularly on the attractions of continued US primacy\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Offering an American perspective, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/people\/gregory-b-poling\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gregory Poling<\/a>, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, judges that a \u2018US-China conflict over Taiwan does not seem imminent, and any escalation would almost certainly be intentional.\u2019 What worries Poling is the chances of an unintentional clash, especially in the air.<\/p>\n<p>He quotes a US count that on 300 occasions over the last two years, Chinese aircraft have \u2018performed reckless manoeuvres or discharged chaff, or shot off flares, or approached too rapidly\u2019 to US or allied aircraft: \u2018This means that PLA aircraft are intentionally creating risks of mid-air collision about every 2.5 days. At that rate, an eventual accident is a mathematical certainty.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s tactic of \u2018violating international law and norms of safe conduct at air and sea to intentionally create risks of collision\u2019 increases the chance of unintended escalation. Poling writes that with virtually no communication between the US and Chinese military, the two sides would struggle to deescalate such a crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The choice facing India is to forsake strategic autonomy for strategic alignment, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/chinaus-icas.org\/our_team\/sourabh-gupta\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sourabh Gupta<\/a>, of the Institute for China-America Studies. India is driven by an \u2018anti-China fixation\u2019, Gupta writes: \u2018A single point agenda\u2014the obsessive need to countervail any advantage that could accrue to China on the Indo-Pacific\u2019s geopolitical canvas\u2014was the common thread that tied together India\u2019s diplomatic strategy in 2023.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>A \u2018combustive test of wills\u2019 with China means India\u2019s room for strategic manoeuvre has crumbled, Gupta judges: \u2018Strategic autonomy has effectively given way to strategic alignment with the US and the West in the Indo-Pacific region \u2013 an outcome not entirely of New Delhi\u2019s choosing.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>From Singapore, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rsis.edu.sg\/profile\/joel-ng\/\">Joel Ng<\/a>, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, writes that the 2020s are shaping up to be the bloodiest decade since the end of the Cold War, as \u2018more and more states appear to be anticipating and preparing for conflict\u2019. Ng says the vicious spiral of the China-US relationship is the great challenge confronting the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN\u2019s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC).<\/p>\n<p>Created amid the hopes that followed the end of the Cold War, the ARF was designed to evolve from confidence building measures to preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution, offering a framework for cooperative security. Yet the ARF still struggles on that first confidence-building rung, and Ng notes that \u2018managing regional conflicts is no longer a hypothetical contingency. The onset and risk of conflicts regionally requires more proactive action. ASEAN might consider convening a conference of TAC signatories as a suitable high-visibility first step to initiating a new round of confidence building measures between all actors.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Chiming in on that thought, Outlook editor Ron Huisken writes that if the language of ASEAN centrality has meaning, then ASEAN must \u2018move beyond quiet diplomacy\u2019 to push the \u2018giants toward a workable accommodation and a joint commitment to a more constructive regional security agenda\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>An assertive ASEAN, Huisken says, would \u2018encourage, provoke, require\u2014whatever the circumstances seem to require or allow\u2014an earnest dialogue with and between the US and China on the preferred character of the region\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>As a small example of the problems in getting that earnest dialogue, the 2024 security outlook carries no contribution from China. That\u2019s a repeat of last year, when for the first time in 15 years there was no chapter offering China\u2019s view.<\/p>\n<p>The absence suggests that the second track strategists of China\u2019s CSCAP are cautious in writing about where China\u2019s leader Xi Jinping is heading on the first track. A dark interpretation is that China is not interested in talking about stabilising the \u2018rules-based system\u2019 in the Asia\u2013Pacific because Beijing views the \u2018system\u2019 as a euphemism for Western dominance. Certainly, that\u2019s the Russian perspective offered in the CSCAP Outlook.<\/p>\n<p>The chapter from <a href=\"https:\/\/sgia.mgimo.ru\/Our-faculty\/faculty\/Koldunova\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">by Ekaterina Koldunova, <\/a>of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, reports that the \u2018political and military crisis in Ukraine\u2019 and US and EU sanctions have \u2018triggered transformative change\u2019 in Russia\u2019s foreign policy, security outlook and economy.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018In reality rather than just in words, Russian political and economic decision-makers finally became serious about developments in Asia, seeking opportunities to cooperate and addressing shortcomings in Russia\u2019s relations with the region,\u2019 Koldunova writes. Those who \u2018cautioned that Russia\u2019s pivot to Asia was a pivot to China\u2019 got more evidence as relations with Japan and South Korea continued to deteriorate.<\/p>\n<p>Western sanctions \u2018galvanised\u2019 Russia\u2019s search for \u2018alternative global governance instruments\u2019, Koldunova judges, and Moscow sees the swing away from Western rules as the \u2018hidden aspiration of many countries in Asia\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The Asia\u2013Pacific frets about the health of the international system and the weakening of rules. And the growing danger of conflict. The sleep-walking fear is the unintended clash that nobody wills but galvanises the will to fight.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever hidden aspirations Asia may have, what it hears and fears is that tune by Thucydides.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thucydides trap: from the Greek historian\u2019s statement that the alarm of the established power at the challenge of the rising power makes war inevitable. The Asia\u2013Pacific ponders the growing chances of war. Australia\u2019s policy community &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":83984,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2212,3523,1414,471,2400],"class_list":["post-83978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-china-defence","tag-pla","tag-south-china-sea","tag-taiwan-strait"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u2018The Thucydides trap\u2019 becomes the Asia\u2013Pacific theme song | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-thucydides-trap-becomes-the-asia-pacific-theme-song\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018The Thucydides trap\u2019 becomes the Asia\u2013Pacific theme song | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thucydides trap: from the Greek historian\u2019s statement that the alarm of the established power at the challenge of the rising power makes war inevitable. 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