{"id":84293,"date":"2023-12-20T06:00:44","date_gmt":"2023-12-19T19:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=84293"},"modified":"2023-12-19T17:14:14","modified_gmt":"2023-12-19T06:14:14","slug":"washingtons-flawed-myanmar-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/washingtons-flawed-myanmar-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Washington\u2019s flawed Myanmar policy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As the Israel\u2013Hamas war rages, the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza is grabbing headlines\u2014as well it should. But another armed conflict, in Myanmar, is also causing mass suffering, with more than two million people<\/a> internally displaced and over a million more<\/a> streaming into neighbouring Bangladesh, India and Thailand. And it\u2019s attracting far less international attention.<\/p>\n

This is not to say that outside forces aren\u2019t engaged in the conflict in Myanmar. On the contrary, the United States seems to view supporting the rebel and pro-democracy groups attempting to overthrow the military junta<\/a>\u2014which returned to power in a February 2021 coup\u2014as a kind of moral test<\/a>. But its approach is doing Myanmar little good.<\/p>\n

After the military overthrew Myanmar\u2019s nascent civilian government\u2014to which it had begun ceding power barely six years earlier\u2014US President Joe Biden\u2019s administration reimposed wide-ranging sanctions, which it has since ratcheted up<\/a>. But, so far, the sanctions have left Myanmar\u2019s military elites relatively unscathed<\/a>, even as they have unravelled the economic progress<\/a> made over the past decade and inflicted misery<\/a> on ordinary citizens.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration has also deepened engagement with the so-called National Unity Government that was formed as an alternative to the junta<\/a>. Though the US, like the rest of the world, has refrained<\/a> from formally recognising the shadow government, that hasn\u2019t stopped the Biden administration from providing \u2018non-lethal aid<\/a>\u2019 to its notional army, the People\u2019s Defence Force, as well as to ethnic insurgent organisations and pro-democracy groups, under the BURMA Act<\/a>. And the US has a history of interpreting \u2018non-lethal\u2019 rather loosely. Non-lethal support for Syrian rebels, for example, included enhancing their operational capabilities<\/a> on the battlefield.<\/p>\n

The groups the Biden administration supports in Myanmar don\u2019t share<\/a> a common cause, let alone a single political strategy. The shadow government has failed to win the support of all major ethnic groups, and its armed wing lacks<\/a> a unified military command. The ethnic insurgent groups<\/a>\u2014some of which have records of brutality\u2014are often more interested<\/a> in securing autonomy for their communities than in building an inclusive federal democratic system, and some are willing to collaborate<\/a> with the junta to get it. Complicating matters further, these groups\u2019 territorial claims sometimes overlap.<\/p>\n

It’s impossible to say for certain whether growing US aid flows have fuelled more violence in Myanmar. But there\u2019s no doubt that rebel attacks have lately intensified, with serious consequences not only for civilians, who often are caught in the crossfire, but also for neighbouring states. Just last month, a major offensive<\/a>\u2014which enabled the rebels to gain control of several border towns and dozens of military outposts\u2014drove at least 72 government soldiers to flee to India<\/a> in just one week. The junta responded by intensifying its own lethal force, including punitive air strikes and artillery barrages.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, more than 32,000 ethnic Chin from Myanmar have taken refuge<\/a> in India\u2019s Chin-majority<\/a> Mizoram state, where they live mostly in refugee camps. Thousands more have fled to another Indian border state, Manipur, fuelling an increasingly violent conflict<\/a> between the local population\u2019s two main ethnic groups.<\/p>\n

US aid to armed groups around the world has often fuelled disorder and suffering, undercutting the quest for democracy. Judging by Myanmar\u2019s deteriorating humanitarian situation, it seems that this may well be happening again. And Myanmar\u2019s neighbours are being affected in much the same way the US would be affected if faraway powers sought to punish Mexico and aid rebel groups there. Yet, far from letting the neighbouring countries take the lead in setting policy towards Myanmar, the Biden administration has insisted they toe the US line.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s uncompromisingly punitive approach to Myanmar\u2019s military junta has hopelessly divided<\/a> the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations, preventing it from playing a constructive role in the conflict. Paradoxically, the US has sought to co-opt ASEAN to promote democracy in Myanmar, even though the majority of the group\u2019s members remain under authoritarian rule.<\/p>\n

India, the world\u2019s most populous democracy, is increasingly concerned that the US approach is pushing resource-rich Myanmar into China\u2019s arms. India not only shares long land and sea borders with Myanmar, but also views the country as a strategic corridor to Southeast Asia. Given the cross-border movement of people and guerrillas\u2014some trained and armed<\/a> by China\u2014close counterinsurgency cooperation with Myanmar is vital for India\u2019s security.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s misguided Myanmar policy seems to align with his public rhetoric<\/a> about a \u2018global battle between democracy and autocracy\u2019. But elsewhere, his administration has adopted a more pragmatic foreign-policy approach, deepening strategic relations with non-democracies in order to counter China\u2019s growing influence. For example, during the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, Biden sought to mend ties<\/a> with Saudi Arabia. He then visited Vietnam, calling<\/a> it a \u2018critical Indo-Pacific partner\u2019.<\/p>\n

Such realism should be welcomed: if the promotion of democracy and human rights overrode all other considerations, US diplomacy would have very few partners outside the West. But this approach needs to be extended to Myanmar. The US would stand a better chance of helping to end direct military rule there by opening up lines of communication with the junta and offering it incentives to reverse course.<\/p>\n

It was the abandonment of a failed<\/a> sanctions policy in favour of calibrated US engagement that helped bring about the formal end of Myanmar\u2019s military dictatorship in 2015. If Myanmar is to avoid becoming a failed state, the Biden administration must adopt a similar strategy today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the Israel\u2013Hamas war rages, the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza is grabbing headlines\u2014as well it should. But another armed conflict, in Myanmar, is also causing mass suffering, with more than two million people internally …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":84295,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[249,212,2070],"class_list":["post-84293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-human-rights","tag-myanmar","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWashington\u2019s flawed Myanmar policy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/washingtons-flawed-myanmar-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Washington\u2019s flawed Myanmar policy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the Israel\u2013Hamas war rages, the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza is grabbing headlines\u2014as well it should. 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