{"id":84635,"date":"2024-01-17T06:00:28","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T19:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=84635"},"modified":"2024-01-16T18:18:29","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T07:18:29","slug":"lais-victory-comes-with-political-risks-for-taiwan-and-its-allies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lais-victory-comes-with-political-risks-for-taiwan-and-its-allies\/","title":{"rendered":"Lai’s victory comes with political risks for Taiwan, and its allies"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

On 13 January, Lai Ching-te of Taiwan\u2019s independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was elected president<\/a> of the raucously democratic island that China claims as its own. Also known as William Lai, he beat two China-friendly candidates to win 40% of Taiwan\u2019s vote. His win was historic: no party has won Taiwan\u2019s presidency three times in succession since direct presidential elections were instituted in 1996.<\/p>\n

China had painted Lai as a \u2018separatist\u2019 who could provoke war in the Taiwan Strait, but many Taiwanese voters paid no attention. Lai’s platform emphasised human rights and de facto partnerships with like-minded democracies, including the US, Taiwan\u2019s main backer and weapons supplier. \u2018We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,\u2019 Lai said after claiming victory.<\/p>\n

Legislative elections were held with the presidential poll and Lai’s DPP lost its majority in Taiwan\u2019s 113-seat parliament, the Legislative Yuan.<\/p>\n

Lai\u2019s win and the DPP’s losses in the Legislative Yuan usher in two political risks for Taiwan, its international supporters and the wider region: the prospect of greater pressure from Beijing, and the possibility that a DPP presidency without a parliamentary majority will test the island\u2019s political maturity and ability to remain a stable and effective partner to its friends abroad.<\/p>\n

The first risk is the obvious and immediate one. Taiwan is likely to have increasingly tense relations with China during Lai\u2019s four-year term after he\u00a0takes office in May. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office under its State Council issued a statement shortly after the elections that indicates how China plans to treat Lai\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n

After the third consecutive DPP presidential win, it\u2019s been said in Taipei that there are private fears in Beijing that the DPP might become Taiwan\u2019s version of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, which has been almost continually in power since the mid-20th century.\u00a0Naturally, none of these fears were on\u00a0official\u00a0display. The Taiwan Affairs Office merely said the elections in China’s\u00a0\u2018Taiwan region\u2019 showed that the DPP was unable to represent mainstream public opinion on the island. This was both a reference to Lai’s win on a split vote and China-friendly politicians\u2019 wins in the legislature.\u00a0China would resolutely oppose Taiwan separatist activities and interference from \u2018external forces\u2019, a reference to America.<\/p>\n

As with many Chinese official\u00a0utterances, this statement served more than one purpose. It indicated that China is denying the legitimacy of Lai\u2019s leadership of Taiwan despite his calls for dialogue with China as equals. Beijing very probably will reject formal contact with Lai\u2019s government, as it did with his predecessor\u00a0Tsai Ing-wen, who was\u00a0constitutionally barred from running for a third term.<\/p>\n

Instead, Beijing is expected to intensify the diplomatic and military harassment it meted out to Tsai.\u00a0This includes invasive military exercises by the People’s Liberation Army with Chinese warplanes flying into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone<\/a> almost daily. During Tsai’s rule, Chinese ballistic missiles flew over Taiwan. Such demonstrations, which are expected to become more dramatic, are aimed at wearing down Taiwan’s morale rather than creating a military clash, but there\u2019s always the risk of accidents causing tensions to spiral out of control.<\/p>\n

China is also expected to use its wealth and diplomatic clout to further isolate Taiwan in the global community.\u00a0As a sign of things to come, two days after the election, Nauru\u00a0switched diplomatic recognition<\/a> from Taiwan to China, whittling Taiwan’s small band of formal diplomatic allies down to 12. China is also expected to engage in economic warfare with Lai’s government. On 1 January it restored tariffs to 12 products that had been liberalised under a landmark cross-strait\u00a0partial\u00a0free trade agreement over a decade ago. China\u2019s Ministry of Commerce has threatened to restore tariffs to other items, including textiles and auto parts. This won’t affect Taiwan’s economy much or be felt by ordinary\u00a0Taiwanese, who China wants to impress, but will still send a direct message to elite executives in the industries involved.<\/p>\n

In Taiwan, soft-spoken Lai has been a huge local success. The son of a coal miner who grew up poor, he studied medicine at prestigious Taiwanese universities and Harvard, before ditching his job as a doctor to go into politics in the mid-1990s. He went on to hold many senior posts including premier and vice president.<\/p>\n

For China, all this has been overshadowed by the comment he made in 2017 that he was a \u2018pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence\u2019. Lai has since promised to stick to Tsai\u2019s careful dictum that since\u00a0Taiwan is independent, no further declarations are necessary. However, China clearly still doesn’t trust him. Just before the election, the Taiwan Affairs Office warned that a Lai presidency would bring \u2018high winds and strong waves\u2019 to the Taiwan Strait, predicting he would bring the island \u2018closer and closer to war and recession\u2019.<\/p>\n

The office also promised that China would work with \u2018relevant political\u00a0parties, groups and peoples from all walks of life in Taiwan to\u2026deepen cross-strait integrated development \u2026and promote the great cause of the reunification of the motherland.\u2019\u00a0China\u00a0clearly plans to\u00a0reach out to China-friendly opposition politicians, including mayors and county commissioners. It may reward their towns and counties with business deals\u00a0to foster feelings of goodwill toward China\u00a0among ordinary Taiwanese,\u00a0and to isolate the DPP.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s\u00a0depiction\u00a0of\u00a0Lai’s win as going against mainstream opinion in Taiwan, serves a second purpose, giving China’s leader, Xi Jinping, more room to decide if\u00a0and when he wants to take\u00a0tougher\u00a0action against Taiwan. Xi has staked his reputation on bringing Taiwan into the Chinese fold. He said in 2013 that the Taiwan issue could no longer be passed down from generation to generation.\u00a0Presenting\u00a0Lai\u2019s win\u00a0in this way gives the impression\u00a0in China\u00a0that Taiwan culturally still has not drifted away from China permanently. With some hawkish elements in the PLA\u00a0and Chinese society\u00a0baying for Xi to do something about Taiwan immediately, this\u00a0framing\u00a0of Lai’s win is intended to take the pressure off Xi, as he solves pressing domestic problems, including\u00a0China\u2019s\u00a0ailing economy.<\/p>\n

China’s portrayal does not fit with the realities on the ground in Taiwan. An academic study from Taiwan’s respected National Chengchi University found that\u00a0nearly two-thirds of Taiwanese people say they have an exclusive Taiwanese identity, not a Chinese one. Lai’s more China-friendly rivals, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang, a burly former cop who won 33.5% of the vote, and Ko Wen-je of the\u00a0Taiwan People\u2019s Party, an unconventional former Taipei mayor with 26.5%,\u00a0promised to launch dialogue with Beijing to soothe tensions. However, they still had pro-Taiwan platforms and, like Lai, called for increased defence spending and robust ties with the US.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0DPP lost 10 seats to end up with 51 seats in the Legislative Yuan to the KMT\u2019s 52. TPP seats climbed from 5 to 8.\u00a0No party has a majority.\u00a0Lai will have to cooperate with parties that may not always be friendly to him to have his legislation enacted. This challenge might also complicate matters for the global community.<\/p>\n

During the rule of a previous DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, opposition politicians dominated the legislature when George W Bush in 2001 offered Taiwan an enormous weapons package. The DPP government readily agreed, but opposition lawmakers blocked the procurement budget. The main motivation for their obstruction appeared to be to humiliate the president. By the end of Chen’s term in 2008, Taiwan’s reputation with many American officials and lawmakers was in shreds. They felt that while the US was prepared to help Taiwan, it was not serious about its own defence. Similar mixed messages to the global community this time around could be even more destabilising, particularly if they make China over-confident.<\/p>\n

In addition, Taiwanese foundries make 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors used in everything from sophisticated weaponry to cars. About 60% of Australia’s semiconductors come from Taiwan. Petty political disputes could potentially obstruct or delay the approval of budgets needed for long-term infrastructure development, such as science parks, that could help this\u00a0industry expand in Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Lai seems aware of\u00a0the pitfalls. Since his victory, he\u2019s promised to bring talent from other political parties into his administration. He also promised to study his two rivals\u2019 policies, saying he would incorporate their ideas if they benefited Taiwan’s people.<\/p>\n

Ko’s TPP could hold the balance of power. Speaking to reporters before the election, he promised to focus on the big picture, eschewing ideology and blanket support for one political\u00a0ally. He promised to work with the new government,\u00a0provided his\u00a0party supported the\u00a0individual\u00a0issues involved.<\/p>\n

This will be a crucial test of politicians\u2019 maturity in this young democracy as Taiwan faces unique and extraordinary pressures. It will need all its politicians and parties to put Taiwanese interests above all else, including seeking short term and local political opportunities, if it is to navigate this testing period.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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