{"id":84932,"date":"2024-01-31T15:58:23","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T04:58:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=84932"},"modified":"2024-01-31T16:03:33","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T05:03:33","slug":"maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

On 4 January, three officials from Maldives\u2019 Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Arts criticised India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to India\u2019s smallest union territory, Lakshadweep.<\/p>\n

They labelled Modi a \u2018puppet of Israel\u2019, a \u2018terrorist\u2019 \u00a0and a \u2018clown\u2019, prompting a public backlash in India and calls to boycott Maldives<\/a> as a tourist destination. Hashtag #BoycottMaldives quickly trended online and the social media frenzy soon escalated into a diplomatic row between the two nations.<\/p>\n

Maldivian president, Mohamed Muizzu, known for his pro-China sentiments, further aggravated tensions by snubbing India and making his first state visit to China after an official trip to Turkey. While the Maldives\u2019 government suspended the loose-lipped officials, Muizzu’s shift towards more China-friendly foreign policies raises concerns about the balance of international relations in the region.<\/p>\n

If the Maldives government drifts closer to China, and if its relationship with India remains strained, there may well be strategic and economic consequences for both India and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).<\/p>\n

India and Maldives have a complex historical relationship, primarily influenced by Maldives political leadership. Despite historical ebbs and flows, India has often been the first to respond to crises in Maldives including intervening in the 1988 coup<\/a> against President Abdul Gayoom, and recently providing $250 million<\/a> in financial assistance.<\/p>\n

In 2009, Maldivian President Mohammad Nashid strengthened ties with India, signing a comprehensive security agreement allowing an Indian military presence in Maldives. Indian forces conducted search and rescue missions and joint patrols. They also monitored Chinese illegal fishing in the Indian Ocean in response to an increase<\/a> in incidents from 372\u00a0 in 2020 to 392 in 2021.<\/p>\n

India-Maldives relations were strained between 2013-2018 by President Abdulla Yameen\u2019s \u2018India Out\u2019 campaign aligning Maldives with China to lessen India\u2019s influence over his country\u2019s security. Chinese investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and general trade flourished with Chinese tourist numbers rising from 60,000 in 2009 to 360,000 in 2015. Yameen’s China-friendly policies led to high indebtedness<\/a> and then the leasing of 17 islands to China.<\/p>\n

Maldives foreign policy shifted again in 2018 with President Ibu Solih\u2019s \u2018India First\u2019 campaign, which restored India’s strategic position as the primary security provider to the IOR.<\/p>\n

President Mohamed Muizzu\u2019s election in September 2023 brought back Yameen’s \u2018India Out\u2019 campaign which was likely supported by political disinformation and online amplification. A report<\/a> by the European Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) revealed that Muizzu\u2019s ruling coalition of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and People’s National Congress (PNC), ran disinformation campaigns across social media platforms, including Facebook and Twitter, to influence public opinion and manipulate election results. The report states that their campaign included anti-Indian sentiments, based on fears of Indian influences and anxiety regarding a presence of Indian military personnel inside the country.<\/p>\n

Since coming to office, President Muizzu has dramatically reset Maldives\u2019 international relations. He broke tradition by visiting China before India. He requested the withdrawal of Indian troops by 15 March 2024 and signed a USD$37 million deal with Turkey for reconnaissance\u00a0 drones<\/a> to replace the gap to be left by the withdrawal of Indian security. To decrease reliance on India, Maldives plans to import<\/a> staple foods from Turkey and explore alternative sources of pharmaceuticals. During Muizzu ‘s recent five-day visit to China in January 2024, he and Xi Jinping signed 20 agreements<\/a> spanning disaster risk reduction, fisheries, increased digital economy investment, joint acceleration of the BRI, and tourism among others.<\/p>\n

So, why might the Maldives\u2019 rapprochement with China be of concern to both Maldives and India?<\/p>\n

If Muizzu merely switched Maldives\u2019 economic dependency from India to China, he would drag his country further into the debt trap. Maldives\u2019 share of Indian tourism increased from 6% in 2018 to over 14% in 2022. By turning away from India, Muizzu \u00a0risks losing a major chunk of tourism revenue (accounting for 28% of Maldivian GDP<\/a> in 2023) generated by Indian travellers to the islands. Recognising that 90% of the Maldivian economy is dependent on tourism-related activities, Muizzu has now urged China to \u2018intensify efforts\u2019 <\/a>\u00a0to send more of its tourists to Maldives. Increasing Maldives economic reliance on China will only further Beijing\u2019s goals<\/a> in the region.<\/p>\n

And Turkish drones alone cannot match the vital role played by Indian troops in Maldives’ security. India, a long-standing ally since the 1988 coup, not only assisted in various operations but also provided crucial aid during the 2004 tsunami and 2014 water crisis in Male. Despite President Yameen’s attempts to engage with China<\/a> and Pakistan, India continued to fulfill 70% of Maldives’ defence training needs.<\/p>\n

Allocating $37 million for Turkish drones from a strained budget raises concerns about the project’s viability in a growing debt crisis<\/a>. The money will buy Maldives at most five or six<\/a> Bayraktar TB2 drones. While Maldives is aiming for a more sovereign foreign policy and does not<\/a> intend replacing Indian troops with forces from other nations, it may still struggle to monitor the exclusive economic zone around its archipelagos with a limited number of drones and a small military.<\/p>\n

From India\u2019s perspective, China\u2019s engagement with the Maldives adds to the pressure New Delhi faces in protecting its interests in the Indian Ocean. In this era of geopolitical contestation, having increased Chinese influence in its backyard is not welcome given that Sri Lanka is already enmeshed in debt-trap diplomacy<\/a> and Pakistan\u2019s dependence on China has increased through the BRI initiative.<\/p>\n

Islamic radicalism<\/a> in Maldives poses a security threat to India and other neighbouring countries. Maldives provided the highest<\/a> number of foreign fighters per capita to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terror group. That reached its peak during Yameen’s presidency from 2013-18. The political leadership has been accused by some analysts of turning a blind eye<\/a> \u00a0to the extremist recruitment to secure votes. Extremist gangs organising out of Maldives lured young men into their gangs in the name of religion, promising them a better future, a sense of purpose, and material wealth. As an example, the 2022 attack on Indians during an International Yoga Day<\/a> event organised by the Indian High Commission in Maldives highlighted the threat which persists despite efforts by international partners such as Japan which granted 500 million yen (US$4.5 million) to Maldives to boost its counter-terrorism capabilities. Despite some attempts to reintegrate families of extremists, the rise of anti-India sentiments in 2024, coupled with Muizzu ‘s emphasis on Islamic values, raises India\u2019s concerns about heightened terrorism.<\/p>\n

A push <\/a>to shift the focus of tourism from Maldives to India\u2019s Lakshadweep islands may have unintended environmental consequences. Indian investors have already made plans to set up 50 luxury tents and more permanent resorts, and the hashtag #ChaloLakshadweep (\u2018Let\u2019s go to Lakshadweep\u2019) is trending on social media.<\/p>\n

The Lakshadweep islands are undoubtedly beautiful, but they are smaller, unexplored, and underdeveloped in terms of infrastructure, internet connectivity and manpower compared to Maldives. While one could argue that a boost in tourism might drive economic development, environmentalists<\/a> have raised concerns that large-scale human interference would strain existing capacities, generate waste and exacerbate climate change, endangering the island\u2019s fragile marine ecosystem and threatening livelihoods. It urges prioritisation of environmental risk assessments and sustainable infrastructural plans to head off a development frenzy driven by the social media feud over the Maldivian officials\u2019 comments about India\u2019s prime minister.<\/p>\n

Considering that Maldives is a geopolitical hotspot, and India seeks to maintain strategic influence in the IOR, it is important that both nations recalibrate their actions and responses to better tackle the existing situation and reinforce mutually beneficial ties.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 4 January, three officials from Maldives\u2019 Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Arts criticised India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to India\u2019s smallest union territory, Lakshadweep. They labelled Modi a \u2018puppet of Israel\u2019, a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1625,"featured_media":84947,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3309,52,69,129,3676],"class_list":["post-84932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-india-relations","tag-china","tag-india","tag-indian-ocean","tag-maldives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMaldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On 4 January, three officials from Maldives\u2019 Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Arts criticised India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to India\u2019s smallest union territory, Lakshadweep. They labelled Modi a \u2018puppet of Israel\u2019, a ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-31T04:58:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-31T05:03:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1918194040.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"664\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Urmika Deb\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Urmika Deb\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1918194040.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1918194040.jpg\",\"width\":1000,\"height\":664,\"caption\":\"Chinese President Xi Jinping holds a welcoming ceremony for President of the Republic of Maldives Mohamed Muizzu in the Northern Hall of the Great Hall of the People prior to their talks in Beijing, capital of China, Jan. 10, 2024. Xi held talks with Muizzu, who is paying a state visit to China, in Beijing on Wednesday. (Photo by Ding Haitao\/Xinhua via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/\",\"name\":\"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-31T04:58:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-31T05:03:33+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/278b9d40138b85a44d634280f2a21180\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/278b9d40138b85a44d634280f2a21180\",\"name\":\"Urmika Deb\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d953fd3080698eb3c7c557e62404059d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d953fd3080698eb3c7c557e62404059d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Urmika Deb\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/urmika-deb\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist","og_description":"On 4 January, three officials from Maldives\u2019 Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Arts criticised India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to India\u2019s smallest union territory, Lakshadweep. They labelled Modi a \u2018puppet of Israel\u2019, a ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2024-01-31T04:58:23+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-01-31T05:03:33+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":664,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1918194040.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Urmika Deb","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Urmika Deb","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1918194040.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/GettyImages-1918194040.jpg","width":1000,"height":664,"caption":"Chinese President Xi Jinping holds a welcoming ceremony for President of the Republic of Maldives Mohamed Muizzu in the Northern Hall of the Great Hall of the People prior to their talks in Beijing, capital of China, Jan. 10, 2024. Xi held talks with Muizzu, who is paying a state visit to China, in Beijing on Wednesday. (Photo by Ding Haitao\/Xinhua via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/","name":"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2024-01-31T04:58:23+00:00","dateModified":"2024-01-31T05:03:33+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/278b9d40138b85a44d634280f2a21180"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/maldives-walks-a-diplomatic-tightrope-with-india\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/278b9d40138b85a44d634280f2a21180","name":"Urmika Deb","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d953fd3080698eb3c7c557e62404059d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d953fd3080698eb3c7c557e62404059d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Urmika Deb"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/urmika-deb\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84932"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1625"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84932"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84932\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84950,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84932\/revisions\/84950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}