{"id":84965,"date":"2024-02-01T10:00:19","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T23:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=84965"},"modified":"2024-02-01T09:26:48","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T22:26:48","slug":"the-good-news-from-taiwan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-good-news-from-taiwan\/","title":{"rendered":"The Good News from Taiwan"},"content":{"rendered":"
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International media are brimming with pronouncements that the West is in decline. The institutions that have formed the foundation of the rules-based international order since World War II are on the brink of collapse, we are warned, and the principles that underpin our open societies have been eroded.<\/p>\n

These claims are not baseless, and there is plenty of reason to pay attention to them. But it is too soon to write off the West, let alone democracy. At the very least, we should wait to see what happens over the course of this year, when elections<\/a> will be held in countries representing half the global population.<\/p>\n

Of the elections that have taken place so far, Taiwan\u2019s recent presidential<\/a> and legislative<\/a> polls are the most significant. Given the island\u2019s role in US-China rivalry\u2014which can be understood as a contest between democracy and autocracy\u2014the vote may turn out to be a kind of bellwether.<\/p>\n

That would be good news. Though the Democratic Progressive Party lost its parliamentary majority to the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, or KMT), Taiwanese voters chose the DPP candidate, Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai), as their next president<\/a>. Voters showed that they prefer continued democratic governance and greater engagement with the world, not least the West, to subservience to China (and, ultimately, reunification).<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, China\u2019s government has not exactly welcomed Lai\u2019s victory. Last year, when then-Vice President Lai visited the United States, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called him<\/a> a \u2018troublemaker through and through\u2019 \u00a0who \u2018stubbornly adheres to the separatist position of Taiwan independence.\u2019 \u00a0Since the election, Chinese officials have warned<\/a> that, as president, Lai would put cross-strait relations in \u2018severe danger.\u2019<\/p>\n

Equally ominous, while the DPP described the elections as pitting democracy against autocracy, the KMT framed the choice as one of war or peace. And the day before the vote, a Chinese defence ministry spokesman<\/a> pledged to take \u2018all necessary measures\u2019 \u00a0to \u2018smash\u2019 \u00a0separatist plots \u2018in any form.\u2019 \u00a0This has raised fears that China will pursue reunification\u2014which Chinese President Xi Jinping considers<\/a> a \u2018 historical inevitability\u2019\u2014more forcefully in the wake of Lai\u2019s victory, possibly even launching a military invasion of the island.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s current economic troubles\u2014including slowing growth<\/a>, soaring youth unemployment, falling foreign investment<\/a>, declining exports<\/a>, property-market turmoil, and deflationary pressure<\/a>\u2014might make such action more likely. As Russian President Vladimir Putin and others have shown, nothing distracts people\u2019s attention from declining living standards quite like a nationalist crusade.<\/p>\n

Reunification by force would have far-reaching consequences. For starters, it would upend the fragile balance in the US-China rivalry. The US has long maintained a policy of \u2018strategic ambiguity<\/a>\u2018 \u00a0toward Taiwan, but were China to invade the island, the US would finally have to decide: let China take what it wants or defend Taiwan from Chinese forces, resulting in a dangerous clash between the world\u2019s two biggest military powers.<\/p>\n

Then there are the economic implications. The Taiwan Strait is central to global maritime trade: last year, 88% of the world\u2019s large container ships passed<\/a> through it. Moreover, Taiwan produces<\/a> more than 60% of the world\u2019s semiconductors, and over 90% of the most advanced chips. With this in mind, Bloomberg estimates<\/a> that a war over Taiwan would cost the world about $10 trillion, or 10% of GDP\u2014far more than the 2008 global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, or the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, there is little reason to think that Lai\u2019s electoral victory will trigger an immediate Chinese invasion. In fact, Xi\u2019s response to the vote has so far been muted. Perhaps he has decided to limit his sabre-rattling over Taiwan in the run-up to the US presidential election, for fear that it would give a boost to the likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump, who made confrontation with China a central theme<\/a> of his first term in office.<\/p>\n

Western leaders have walked a fine line in their responses to the Taiwanese election. While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated<\/a> the island\u2019s people for \u2018demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process,\u2019 \u00a0US President Joe Biden<\/a> reiterated<\/a> that the US does not support independence.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the German Foreign Office released a statement<\/a> noting \u2018how much [Taiwanese] voters aspire to democratic values\u2019 and expressing a desire to expand its relations with the island\u2014but only \u2018within the framework\u2019 \u00a0of the one-China policy. The French Foreign Ministry noted<\/a> that the \u2018free elections\u2019 \u00a0showed \u2018how firmly democracy is rooted in Taiwan,\u2019 but did not mention Lai by name.<\/p>\n

Even these tactful responses may get under China\u2019s skin. After all, the Communist Party of China has long claimed<\/a> that liberal democracy is incompatible with Chinese culture. In this sense, a prosperous, democratic Taiwan is the CPC\u2019s worst nightmare. And as Western leaders have highlighted, a prosperous, democratic Taiwan is precisely what we have today.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s democracy is all the more impressive for being so young: the island\u2019s first presidential election was held only in 1996, after four decades of martial law under the KMT. Today, Taiwan is considered one of only three<\/a> consolidated democracies in Asia, along with Japan and South Korea.<\/p>\n

The recent Taiwanese elections re-affirmed the liberal-democratic values that are under attack in much of the world\u2014and unequivocally rejected the alternative. As Lai put it in his victory speech<\/a>, Taiwan \u2018will continue to walk side by side with democracies around the world.\u2019 \u00a0If elections elsewhere this year yield similar results, the island will continue to have plenty of companions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

International media are brimming with pronouncements that the West is in decline. 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