{"id":85441,"date":"2024-02-22T06:00:18","date_gmt":"2024-02-21T19:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=85441"},"modified":"2024-02-21T19:07:51","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T08:07:51","slug":"the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Not for the first time, the central figure at this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference was someone not in attendance. This year was Donald Trump\u2019s turn.<\/p>\n

Like most participants at this annual \u2018Davos of Defence\u2019, I desperately hope that the presumptive Republican candidate will forever remain a former president. This is not merely out of sympathy for my American friends, who see him as a danger to the future of their republic, but also because I fear what he would do to the global order. As a European, though, I am somewhat grateful for Trump\u2019s existence. Even if he loses the election this November, he could end up becoming the European project\u2019s unwitting saviour. He has forced Europeans finally to rethink the core assumptions that have hamstrung them with regard to the war in Ukraine, Europe\u2019s own defence, and European political unity.<\/p>\n

As the war in Ukraine nears the end of its second year with no end in sight, Trump\u2019s candidacy is focusing European minds about what victory and defeat might entail. Everyone\u2019s ideal outcome is for Ukraine to recover all its territory. Watching the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny<\/a>\u2019s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, take the stage<\/a> in Munich hours after learning of her husband\u2019s death, it was impossible not to recoil at the thought of giving Vladimir Putin even one square inch of Ukraine. But as the war of attrition grinds on, it makes less and less sense to consider the matter only in territorial terms.<\/p>\n

After all, an even bigger threat to Ukraine than territorial losses would be a Trump peace plan that both cedes territory and demilitarises the country, thus leaving it condemned to a perilous state of neutrality. Europeans are waking up to the fact that Ukraine can pursue its European and Western ambitions only through dual accession to NATO and the European Union. As Ivan Krastev<\/a> argued<\/a> recently, it may be time to start considering a \u2018West German scenario.\u2019<\/p>\n

Trump has also unwittingly lent urgency to the ongoing European debate about defence and security. Just this week in Munich, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen promised<\/a> to hand over her country\u2019s \u2018entire artillery\u2019 to the Ukrainians. More broadly, Europeans have already been contributing more aid (military and otherwise) to Ukraine than the United States has. Ahead of NATO\u2019s summit in Washington in July, 20 of the 22 EU members of the alliance (including Germany) are on track<\/a> to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense.<\/p>\n

True, most of this shift is the result of Putin\u2019s revanchism. But Trump\u2019s recent comments<\/a> encouraging the Russians to \u2018do whatever the hell they want\u2019 with NATO members that refuse to \u2018pay up\u2019 have raised the ante. Europeans must not only invest more but also change how the money is spent, not least by overcoming the old psychological divisions between NATO and the EU.<\/p>\n

But perhaps Trump\u2019s biggest contribution has been to Europe\u2019s political unity. After he was elected in 2016, many feared the rise of an \u2018illiberal international\u2019 that would have brought far-right populist parties in Europe into close alignment with Trump\u2019s White House and Putin\u2019s Kremlin. But if Trump is elected a second time, polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations (to be published soon) shows that he would not be welcomed enthusiastically in most European countries, including even Hungary.<\/p>\n

One striking consequence of the war (and of Brexit) lies in the repositioning of many right-wing parties. Most notably, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has carefully moved away from her previous Euroskepticism and made a point of cutting all of Italy\u2019s ties with Putin. In Poland, Donald Tusk\u2019s<\/a> return to the premiership has united a traditionally skeptical electorate behind the idea of a more cohesive geopolitical Europe. The European Parliament elections in June may well result in a sharp turn to the right<\/a>; but in many countries, the Trump threat could mobilise voters and help candidates who are rallying behind European sovereignty.<\/p>\n

Nor are these dynamics confined to the EU. The United Kingdom will probably elect a new government before the end of the year. In Munich, the Labour Party\u2019s impressive shadow foreign secretary, David Lammy, made it clear<\/a> that he would push hard for the closest possible relationship with Europeans on security and defence issues.<\/p>\n

But nobody summed up the Trump effect better than (outgoing) Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who implored<\/a> Europeans to \u2018stop whining and moaning about Trump\u2019, and start focusing on getting their act together. Given the long-term trajectory of US domestic politics, Europeans would need to do this either way, regardless of who wins this November.<\/p>\n

Should disaster be averted this time around, a second-term Biden administration could count on a much better partner in Europe. As many US watchers have noted, Trump is both the biggest threat to American democracy and the most powerful mobiliser of Democratic Party voters. It is a risky business, but there is a chance that the Trump effect could leave the transatlantic order stronger than it has been for a long time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Not for the first time, the central figure at this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference was someone not in attendance. This year was Donald Trump\u2019s turn. Like most participants at this annual \u2018Davos of Defence\u2019, I …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":529,"featured_media":85444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[325,1025,163,714],"class_list":["post-85441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-europe","tag-european-union","tag-russia","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Trump effect may galvanise Europe | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Not for the first time, the central figure at this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference was someone not in attendance. This year was Donald Trump\u2019s turn. Like most participants at this annual \u2018Davos of Defence\u2019, I ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-02-21T19:00:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-02-21T08:07:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-1902124143.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"631\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark Leonard\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark Leonard\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-1902124143.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-1902124143.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":631,\"caption\":\"PARIS, FRANCE - JANUARY 5: French President Emmanuel Macron (C), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (first row, 2ndL), European Council President Charles Michel (first row, 2ndR), German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier (first row, R), Belgium's Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (up, L), Netherlands' Prime Minister Mark Rutte (up, 2ndL) and European central Bank president Christine Lagarde (up, R) stand in front of the coffin of late French minister and European Union Commission president Jacques Delors during a tribute to former European Commission President Jacques Delors at Les Invalides on January 5, 2024 in Paris, France. Delors, who died last week at age 98, is regarded as an architect of the modern European Union, including the single market and Euro currency. (Photo by Christian Liewig - Corbis\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/\",\"name\":\"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-02-21T19:00:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-02-21T08:07:51+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/7e291f916382fc04f1649bd8b3f36aa8\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/7e291f916382fc04f1649bd8b3f36aa8\",\"name\":\"Mark Leonard\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/46bba1da9eb2eeee81be75c78b811c39?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/46bba1da9eb2eeee81be75c78b811c39?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Mark Leonard\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/mark-leonard\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe | The Strategist","og_description":"Not for the first time, the central figure at this year\u2019s Munich Security Conference was someone not in attendance. This year was Donald Trump\u2019s turn. Like most participants at this annual \u2018Davos of Defence\u2019, I ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2024-02-21T19:00:18+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-02-21T08:07:51+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":631,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-1902124143.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Mark Leonard","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mark Leonard","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-1902124143.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/GettyImages-1902124143.jpg","width":1024,"height":631,"caption":"PARIS, FRANCE - JANUARY 5: French President Emmanuel Macron (C), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (first row, 2ndL), European Council President Charles Michel (first row, 2ndR), German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier (first row, R), Belgium's Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (up, L), Netherlands' Prime Minister Mark Rutte (up, 2ndL) and European central Bank president Christine Lagarde (up, R) stand in front of the coffin of late French minister and European Union Commission president Jacques Delors during a tribute to former European Commission President Jacques Delors at Les Invalides on January 5, 2024 in Paris, France. Delors, who died last week at age 98, is regarded as an architect of the modern European Union, including the single market and Euro currency. (Photo by Christian Liewig - Corbis\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/","name":"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2024-02-21T19:00:18+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-21T08:07:51+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/7e291f916382fc04f1649bd8b3f36aa8"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-trump-effect-may-galvanise-europe\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Trump effect may galvanise Europe"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/7e291f916382fc04f1649bd8b3f36aa8","name":"Mark Leonard","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/46bba1da9eb2eeee81be75c78b811c39?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/46bba1da9eb2eeee81be75c78b811c39?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Mark Leonard"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/mark-leonard\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85441"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/529"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85441"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85448,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85441\/revisions\/85448"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}