{"id":8558,"date":"2013-08-20T12:30:59","date_gmt":"2013-08-20T02:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=8558"},"modified":"2013-08-21T09:04:46","modified_gmt":"2013-08-20T23:04:46","slug":"low-yield-nuclear-weapons-do-have-utility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/low-yield-nuclear-weapons-do-have-utility\/","title":{"rendered":"Low-yield nuclear weapons do have utility"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Crispin Rovere and Kalman Robertson have responded<\/a> to my earlier comments<\/a> on their \u2018low-yield nuclear weapon treaty\u2019 proposal<\/a>, but I\u2019m not convinced by their argument. They claim that low-yield weapons \u2018are a unique class of non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW) that carry special risks which greatly outweigh any marginal benefit\u2019 and go on to suggest that \u2018prohibiting the development and retention of nuclear weapons with yields below 5 kilotons therefore strengthens security overall.\u2019 But from whose strategic vantage point do they make these claims? Viewed from Washington, Paris or London, you could argue that a perceived absence of an overwhelming threat, together with clamorous calls for nuclear abolition, makes consideration of a low-yield NSNW ban a logical step towards a world of \u2018global zero\u2019. The wisdom of rushing to achieve that ultimate end-state can be strongly challenged: advocates of abolition consistently don\u2019t address the hard reality that states have nuclear weapons for valid strategic purposes\u2014most prominently deterrence\u2014and eliminating low-yield NSNWs increases risks for some states that deterrence will fail.<\/p>\n

Nuclear deterrence isn\u2019t about bluffing. A credible nuclear deterrent demands both the ability and willingness to undertake war fighting if vital national interests are challenged. It also demands a clear requirement to communicate such a posture to any adversary. This was the basis for the success of nuclear deterrence throughout the Cold War, and remains so today. During the Cold War, NATO willingness to threaten a limited use of tactical nuclear weapons provided a nuclear \u2018firebreak\u2019 in which both sides could choose to step back from the brink. Intra-war deterrence was not a myth. However, the alternative of immediately \u2018nuking Moscow\u2019 in response to conventional attacks along the inner-German border would have rushed both sides needlessly into a series of strategic exchanges. This could have only resulted in mutually assured destruction (MAD).<\/p>\n

The question is \u2018why escalate’? It\u2019s much more logical to practise intra-war deterrence and bring hostilities to an early end, rather than mindlessly rush to embrace mutual destruction. Rovere and Robertson\u2019s argument forces states down the path to MAD. I see utility in low-yield NSNWs because they offer nuclear-armed states\u2019 national command authorities the flexibility of a more credible nuclear deterrent (backed up by an ability to fight nuclear war at a level considerably lower than mutual annihilation) and time to bring hostilities to an end. Removing the \u2018nuclear firebreak\u2019 provided by low-yield NSNWs doesn\u2019t increase security, but instead increases risk because it leads to an all-or-nothing choice for national leaderships that undermines the credibility of deterrence.<\/p>\n

This is a strategic dilemma relevant not only to new nuclear weapons states like Pakistan and India, but also traditional P5 states such as Russia, which continues to rely on NSNWs to deter conventionally superior potential opponents, including a rising China. China\u2019s arsenal and posture remain relatively opaque. But like Russia, China can’t merely rely on strategic nuclear forces. China\u2019s strategic outlook isn\u2019t only shaped by the maritime space of East Asia, but also by the potential for Sino-Indian tensions to lead to miscalculation and longer-term risks associated with resource competition in Central Asia and Far-Eastern Siberia. Planning for future PLA \u2018Air-Land\u2019 operations means low-yield NSNWs retain utility as a deterrent to the nuclear forces not only of the United States, but also potentially, India, Russia and other nuclear weapon states that could emerge in East Asia.<\/p>\n

Rovere and Robertson sidestep the issue of nuclear-armed states employing selectable yield warheads to cheat on any agreement by asking \u2018why they will cheat’? This rhetorical question ignores the practical issue that must be at the foundation of any such agreement. A minimum-yield threshold treaty must<\/i> be fully verified and monitored through intrusive inspections for all signatories otherwise it\u2019s of little use. The fact is that unless signatories with selectable-yield warheads are prepared to eliminate those weapons and agree to intrusive monitoring to ensure they don\u2019t produce low-yield NSNWs, states can <\/i>cheat. Rod Lyon\u2019s comments on the US B-61 bomb<\/a> are well put. Relying on trust and legal mechanisms is an insufficient basis for maintaining deterrence stability.<\/p>\n

Finally, Rovere and Robertson challenge my scepticism that such a treaty can be made to \u2018actually happen\u2019. Their response notes that the key challenge states which I highlighted\u2014North Korea, Israel, India, Pakistan and potentially Iran\u2014are either outside or not in compliance with the 1967 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Once again they sidestep the challenges of negotiating a minimum-yield threshold treaty with an entirely separate point about the desirability of the NPT. This point isn\u2019t quite clear to me. If it\u2019s okay for these states to maintain low-yield NSNWs, but desirable for the P5 states to eliminate theirs, that doesn\u2019t eliminate low-yield NSNW. Rather, it highlights a more fundamental challenge that the nuclear abolitionists are yet to satisfactorily address\u2014how to make nuclear disarmament actually happen<\/i>!<\/p>\n

Malcolm Davis is assistant professor in International Relations and post-doctoral research fellow in China-Western Relations at Bond University. Image courtesy of Flickr user Nicolas Raymond<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crispin Rovere and Kalman Robertson have responded to my earlier comments on their \u2018low-yield nuclear weapon treaty\u2019 proposal, but I\u2019m not convinced by their argument. They claim that low-yield weapons \u2018are a unique class of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":8566,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[547,172,305],"class_list":["post-8558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-low-yield-nuclear-weapons","tag-nuclear-security","tag-treaty"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLow-yield nuclear weapons do have utility | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/low-yield-nuclear-weapons-do-have-utility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Low-yield nuclear weapons do have utility | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Crispin Rovere and Kalman Robertson have responded to my earlier comments on their \u2018low-yield nuclear weapon treaty\u2019 proposal, but I\u2019m not convinced by their argument. 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