{"id":86075,"date":"2024-03-25T06:00:08","date_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=86075"},"modified":"2024-04-03T08:56:25","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T21:56:25","slug":"the-meaning-of-swedens-nato-accession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-meaning-of-swedens-nato-accession\/","title":{"rendered":"The meaning of Sweden\u2019s NATO accession"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

On March 7, Sweden officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ending its 200-year-old policy of neutrality. The decision was largely influenced by the changing security environment following Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and geographic considerations.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sweden embraced neutrality as a result of <\/span>repeated conflicts with Russia\u2014particularly the early nineteenth-century Finnish War, when it lost Finland to Russia<\/span>. Now, Russian aggression has forced it into a dramatic reversal that will have major implications for the regional balance of power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following the Great Northern War (1700-1721), and the loss of Finland to Russia in the early nineteenth century, Sweden gradually concluded that neutrality would best serve its sovereignty and national security.\u00a0It avoided armed conflict, abstained from involvement in great-power spheres of influence, eschewed military alliances, and focused on international peacekeeping and humanitarian initiatives. During the Cold War, its official policy was characterised as \u2018alliansfrihet i fred, syftande till neutralitet i krig\u2019 (\u2018non-alignment in peace, so as to maintain neutrality in war\u2019), despite being economically, culturally, and militarily aligned with the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, Sweden\u2019s policy did evolve over time. After joining NATO\u2019s Partnership for Peace in 1994, it started actively <\/span>participating<\/span><\/a> in NATO operations, EU-led rapid-response forces, and multinational defense initiatives. It also provided specialised training for peacekeeping through its participation in various interoperability and readiness programs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s NATO accession can be understood as part of the broader trend towards (defensive) militarisation across Europe and within the European Union. Now that Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine has elevated security concerns and disrupted energy supplies, European leaders are focused squarely on achieving strategic autonomy and mobilising collective responses to Russian aggression.<\/span><\/p>\n

To name just one potential threat, the transformation of the Baltic Sea region into a \u2018<\/span>NATO lake<\/span><\/a>\u2019 may lead the Kremlin to seize the Suwa\u0142ki Gap, a sliver of Polish territory between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. Given this fraught geopolitical context, the EU is drawing up plans for a \u2018war economy\u2019 oriented around higher defense spending and energy and supply-chain security.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The EU\u2019s <\/span>transition<\/span><\/a> to a war economy will bring a significant boost to the defense sector. One <\/span>recent proposal<\/span><\/a>, the European Defense Industrial Strategy, aims to create new incentives for European arms manufacturers to increase investment and output, and to encourage more collective procurement of European-made arms. The goal, reflecting European anxieties about the upcoming US presidential election, is to accelerate efforts to strengthen supply chains and meet heightened demand for military hardware in the face of crises.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The shift in public opinion within Sweden has been remarkable. Around <\/span>68%<\/span><\/a> of Swedes polled are now positive toward NATO membership, compared to <\/span>30%<\/span><\/a> in 2019, and there is a <\/span>broad political consensus<\/span><\/a> for NATO membership (with only the Greens and the Communists openly opposing it).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s geographical proximity to Russia cannot be ignored. Swedes know that they are well within range of Russian air and naval power. Russia has increased its maritime presence, exercises, and maneuvers in the Baltic Sea, posing a significant threat to Sweden\u2019s economy and sea lanes. Russian undersea operations in the vicinity have raised national-security concerns, invoking memories of the 1981 \u2018<\/span>Whiskey on the Rocks<\/span><\/a>\u2019 incident, when two Swedish fishermen came across a beached Soviet submarine within Swedish territorial waters.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, Russia\u2019s anti-access\/area-denial capabilities\u2014including cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and nuclear weapons based in Kaliningrad, along with its strategy of engaging in hybrid warfare below the threshold of armed conflict\u2014continue to pose a <\/span>serious threat<\/span><\/a> across the Baltic region.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

These threats demand a robust defense posture and heightened surveillance to deter aggression. Sweden has already increased its military presence on the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea, following Russia\u2019s deployment of <\/span>landing ships<\/span><\/a> through the Great Belt Strait. Now, integration into NATO\u2019s collective-defense framework will further enhance its ability to counter such threats.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Sweden has already been cooperating intensively with NATO, full membership will deepen the relationship significantly. As a formal member, Sweden will be directly protected under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Greater access to cutting-edge military technology and deeper intelligence insights will strengthen its defense capability against air, naval, submarine, and cyber threats. And it will play a greater role in shaping the alliance\u2019s strategies, particularly in Northern Europe.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO also benefits from Sweden\u2019s accession, of course. Sweden\u2019s strategic assets include Gotland (a key hub for deploying reinforcements during any conflict); a strong defense industry that produces world-class military equipment (notably advanced Gripen fighter jets); and a modern, highly experienced submarines fleet.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Swedish accession also means that all Nordic countries\u2014Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden\u2014are now aligned under the same security umbrella, mutually reinforcing NATO\u2019s capabilities and obligations on its northern flank and on its eastern flank across the Baltic Sea. Moreover, Sweden\u2019s change in policy may convince other neutral EU countries like Austria and Ireland to join, too, potentially leading to a significant reconfiguration of security alliances across Europe.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, while NATO enlargement enhances collective defense, it also intensifies Europe\u2019s security dilemma. Russia <\/span>frames<\/span><\/a> any new additions as a sign of strategic encroachment, thus increasing tensions. Having <\/span>promised<\/span><\/a> to respond to Sweden\u2019s accession, the Kremlin may scale up military activities nearby or pursue more aggressive posturing, with frequent military exercises and deployments of advanced weaponry closer to NATO territories.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To show that it respects Russia\u2019s own security and commercial interests, Sweden should continue to emphasise that its membership is a defensive precautionary measure, and that <\/span>access<\/span><\/a> to the Baltic Sea remains open. With <\/span>NATO\u2019s presence<\/span><\/a> expanding substantially in the Arctic\u2014an area of growing importance for Russia (and China)\u2014the situation calls for careful strategic balancing. Russia inevitably will claim that NATO is trying to encircle it. Precisely how it responds has become the most important strategic question for the region\u2014and for NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On March 7, Sweden officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ending its 200-year-old policy of neutrality. The decision was largely influenced by the changing security environment following Russia\u2019s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and geographic …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1930,"featured_media":86077,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[857,417,3277,3803,261,2369,163,1111],"class_list":["post-86075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-baltic-states","tag-denmark","tag-finland","tag-iceland","tag-nato","tag-norway","tag-russia","tag-sweden"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe meaning of Sweden\u2019s NATO accession | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-meaning-of-swedens-nato-accession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The meaning of Sweden\u2019s NATO accession | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On March 7, Sweden officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ending its 200-year-old policy of neutrality. 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