{"id":86346,"date":"2024-04-09T17:58:28","date_gmt":"2024-04-09T07:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=86346"},"modified":"2024-04-09T17:58:28","modified_gmt":"2024-04-09T07:58:28","slug":"leaders-fall-in-vietnam-but-dont-expect-a-foreign-policy-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaders-fall-in-vietnam-but-dont-expect-a-foreign-policy-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Leaders fall in Vietnam, but don\u2019t expect a foreign policy shift"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In discussing Vietnamese politics, the commentariat falls back on the word <\/span>\u2018<\/span>opaque<\/span>\u2019<\/span>. This usually means that it does not know what is happening.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The term is resurfacing in the wake of the resignation on 19 March of Vietnam\u2019s <\/span>p<\/span>resident, Vo Van <\/span>Thuong<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thuong was fired for alleged <\/span>\u2018<\/span>violations and shortcomings<\/span>\u2019<\/span> that had <\/span>left <\/span>a <\/span>\u2018<\/span>bad mark on the reputation of the Communist party.<\/span>\u2019<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thuong\u2019s<\/span> \u2018<\/span>shortcomings<\/span>\u2019<\/span> need to be seen in the context of the long-running anti-<\/span>corruption campaign spearheaded by the <\/span>p<\/span>arty\u2019s secretary-general, Nguyen Phu <\/span>Trong<\/span>. Trong is head of the <\/span>p<\/span>olitburo and <\/span>number<\/span>–<\/span>one <\/span>in the Vietnamese system.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thuong\u2019s downfall <\/span>would <\/span>itself <\/span>be a story. <\/span>But his <\/span>predecessor as <\/span>p<\/span>resident<\/span>,<\/span> Nguyen Xuan <\/span>Phuc<\/span>, <\/span>formerly a successful <\/span>p<\/span>rime <\/span>m<\/span>inister<\/span>,<\/span> ha<\/span>s <\/span>also been compelled to resign.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At that time there was inevitably speculation about the reason for the purge. One view was that it was indeed about corruption. Another <\/span>was that many of those penalised were <\/span>victims of factional fighting<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>with Trong pushing out his <\/span>rivals.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Vietnam\u2019s leadership issues probably derive <\/span>both <\/span>from <\/span>genuine<\/span> corruption <\/span>matters <\/span>and <\/span>from <\/span>factional fighting. The two are not mutually exclusive.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Corruption is a massive problem in Vietnam. It makes political sense to try to deal with it. The reasons given for the exit of <\/span>top leaders are plausible.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But no political system<\/span>s,<\/span> including communist ones<\/span>,<\/span> are <\/span>free from factional fighting. A difference is that factions in the United States, <\/span>Britain <\/span>or Australia do <\/span>much of <\/span>their fighting in the open<\/span>;<\/span> t<\/span>he Vietnamese do it <\/span>all <\/span>in secret.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There has also been a view that there are divisions in Hanoi between those who lean towards China and those who <\/span>back<\/span> Vietnam\u2019s opening to the rest of the world.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Those associated more with the party are sometimes portrayed as closer to China<\/span>,<\/span> while those associated with government can be seen to tilt more towards the <\/span>W<\/span>est.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Again, such differences would not be surprising. Outlooks do vary. The Vietnamese are nervous about China. Defence ties with the <\/span>W<\/span>est help bolster <\/span>the country\u2019s <\/span>security. Its economic growth will continue to depend on the <\/span>W<\/span>est and major regional economies. But it does not want to provoke China.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, <\/span>differences of approach are not stark divisions. In the end<\/span>,<\/span> Vietnamese leaders<\/span> tend to agree on foreign policy decisions and <\/span>stick with them. If one tenet is central to their world view, it is the importance of balance.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The country\u2019s <\/span>system <\/span>tends to grade relationships by tier<\/span>. <\/span>I<\/span>n recent months <\/span>it has <\/span>raised the level of its relationships with the United States, Japan, <\/span>South <\/span>Korea and Australia to the highest tier of <\/span>c<\/span>omprehensive <\/span>s<\/span>trategic <\/span>p<\/span>artnership<\/span>. This is a level previously accorded to only China, Russia and India<\/span>,<\/span> with <\/span>which <\/span>Vietnam has had longstanding close relationships (albeit a fractious one with China).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These diplomatic steps <\/span>are closely tied to <\/span>economic and technological aspirations. But lest anyone doubt Vietnam\u2019s adherence to balance, President Xi<\/span> Jinping<\/span> made a <\/span>state visit to Vietnam <\/span>amid <\/span>a flurry of relationship upgrades <\/span>with the United States, Japan and Australia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So<\/span>,<\/span> what<\/span>\u2019s<\/span> next?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vietnam\u2019s leadership tussles are not likely to disappear before the election of a new central committee and politburo in 2026. But Trong\u2019s successor will not be a strongman like <\/span>Xi. The tradition of collective leadership is too <\/span>well <\/span>established.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The recent infighting looks bad and affects <\/span>foreign <\/span>economic confidence. The very fact of the longstanding anti-corruption campaign<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>intended to safeguard party health and popularity<\/span>,<\/span> also makes both officialdom and the business community jumpy.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This nervousness in turn jams up the decision-making process <\/span>needed for <\/span>a freer flow of domestic and foreign investment.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And we should not make the mistake of thinking that the government is communist-lite. It is a serious Marxist Leninist state. Its bureaucracy is sclerotic and its security apparatus is rough.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Vietnam is now a country of 100 million<\/span> people<\/span>. <\/span>A<\/span>nalysts do not doubt <\/span>its <\/span>economic fundamentals. According to the<\/span> International Monetary Fund<\/span>, <\/span>Vietnam\u2019s <\/span>per<\/span>–<\/span>capita <\/span>gross domestic product<\/span>, whether measured in nominal terms or adjusted for purchasing power, <\/span>is above <\/span>the Philippines<\/span>\u2019 and<\/span> not far below <\/span>Indonesia<\/span>\u2019s<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If Vietnam can push ahead with a major economic reform program as it did with the ground<\/span>–<\/span>breaking Doi Moi (literally<\/span>,<\/span> \u2018<\/span>Restoration<\/span>\u2019<\/span>) program in the late eighties, its economic prospects could be good. We should deal with it accordingly.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There is little reason to <\/span>expect <\/span>any of the recent leadership developments <\/span>to greatly <\/span>affect <\/span>Vietnam\u2019s foreign policy. Factionalism has not had a major impact on external policy in recent years and the Vietnamese will continue to adhere to the concept of balance. <\/span>The West cannot arrange a tilt towards itself by Vietnam <\/span>nor one away from China. Vietnam\u2019s leaders <\/span>simply <\/span>will <\/span>not do this.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the end<\/span>,<\/span> it is in the <\/span>W<\/span>estern interest to deal with the Vietnamese as they are<\/span>,<\/span> not as we might like them to be.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In discussing Vietnamese politics, the commentariat falls back on the word \u2018opaque\u2019. This usually means that it does not know what is happening.\u00a0 The term is resurfacing in the wake of the resignation on 19 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":334,"featured_media":86349,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3813,2015,540],"class_list":["post-86346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-vietnam-relations","tag-domestic-politics","tag-vietnam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLeaders fall in Vietnam, but don\u2019t expect a foreign policy shift | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaders-fall-in-vietnam-but-dont-expect-a-foreign-policy-shift\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Leaders fall in Vietnam, but don\u2019t expect a foreign policy shift | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In discussing Vietnamese politics, the commentariat falls back on the word \u2018opaque\u2019. 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