{"id":86433,"date":"2024-04-12T12:04:12","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T02:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=86433"},"modified":"2024-04-12T20:51:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T10:51:11","slug":"indonesian-defence-under-prabowo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indonesian-defence-under-prabowo\/","title":{"rendered":"Everybody needs good neighbours: Indonesian defence under Prabowo"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

With <\/span>Indonesia<\/span>n<\/span> President Joko<\/span> (Jokowi)<\/span> Widodo<\/span> fast approaching the end of his<\/span> 10<\/span>-year term and the February election result now <\/span>official<\/span>, it\u2019s time to <\/span>consider<\/span> how <\/span>incoming p<\/span>resident Prabowo Subianto will shape the country\u2019s strategic and defence affairs. While the country\u2019s overall strategic outlook is unlikely to shift, there are some changes the new president and new defence minister could\u2014and should\u2014make.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

First and foremost, <\/span>as <\/span>current<\/span> defence minister, <\/span>Prabowo will continue to oversee the<\/span> much-needed <\/span>military <\/span>modernisation program<\/span>, <\/span>which aims to<\/span> strengthen<\/span> the <\/span>country\u2019s <\/span>maritime defences by upgrading the navy and air force. <\/span>It<\/span> has been <\/span>Prabowo’s<\/span> priority and<\/span> was <\/span>one of his election promises.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But<\/span> there is a<\/span> lack of coheren<\/span>ce in <\/span>Prabowo’s<\/span> approach <\/span>that <\/span>is problematic. <\/span>T<\/span>he program, which<\/span> promises<\/span><\/a> fighter jets, submarines and patrol boats,\u00a0<\/span>had in 2023 only met<\/span> 51 percent<\/span><\/a> of its targets for the <\/span>a<\/span>ir <\/span>f<\/span>orce<\/span>,<\/span> and 60<\/span> percent<\/span> and 76<\/span> percent<\/span> for the army and navy<\/span>,<\/span> respectively<\/span>. <\/span>H<\/span>is <\/span>flurry of travel <\/span>a<\/span>s defence minister <\/span>from <\/span>2019 <\/span>yielded the signing of <\/span>contracts for <\/span>acquisition<\/span>s<\/span> from the US, France, Turkey, South Korea and <\/span>Britain<\/span>, as well as deeper overall defence ties. Yet, as the ill-fated attempt to acquire second-hand<\/span> Mirage <\/span>2000 <\/span>fighter<\/span>s<\/span> from Qatar attests, it is unclear whether these purchases from multiple suppliers will further strengthen Indonesia\u2019s <\/span>defence posture or fragment it.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, q<\/span>uestions<\/span> remain whether these big-ticket items are <\/span>appropriate for <\/span>service <\/span>requirements <\/span>or <\/span>simply <\/span>provide opportunities for sectioning off parts of the national budget. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The new Prabowo administration must <\/span>also <\/span>address the <\/span>inevitable tension between the need to invest in maritime defence and the ongoing primacy of the army. Of Indonesia\u2019s contemporary security challenges, several are land-based and pressing<\/span>:<\/span> the army is still heavily relied upon <\/span>for<\/span> disaster relief and food security<\/span> and is tasked with maintaining a sprawling territorial presence. The military must balance <\/span>deterring <\/span>potential threats from a larger adversary <\/span>and <\/span>at<\/span>tending to <\/span>internal <\/span>emergencies facing 280 million citizens<\/span> on land<\/span>.<\/span> Effective deter<\/span>r<\/span>ence in the region is critical, given China\u2019s shameless bullying of Indonesia\u2019s partners<\/span>,<\/span> such as<\/span> the Philippines<\/span>,<\/span> in the South China Sea.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Such <\/span>eff<\/span>orts<\/span> would be considerably aided by the publication of a new <\/span>d<\/span>efence <\/span>w<\/span>hite <\/span>p<\/span>aper or strategic update. The last such document, the 2015 <\/span>w<\/span>hite <\/span>p<\/span>aper, was <\/span>issued <\/span>nearly a decade ago. An update would shift Indonesia\u2019s strategic thinking away from threats such as communism and total people\u2019s defence and help articulate the nation’s own ideas of deterrence.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A new strategic document would also allow Indonesia, as Southeast Asia’s largest state and a key Indo-Pacific player, to lead its regional neighbours by example. This is critical given the contemporary security landscape marked by wars threatening food security, sharpened US\u2013China strategic competition, tensions in the South China Sea and climate change pressures.<\/p>\n

Lastly, s<\/span>uch a<\/span> document would<\/span> help outline a new phase of <\/span>military modernisation<\/span> and detail the government’s response<\/span> to grey zone threats, particularly in the cyber realm<\/span>. It should also<\/span> provide<\/span> transparency about how the<\/span> national budget<\/span> would be spent<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And yet<\/span> we\u2019re unlikely to see any shifts in prevailing strategic thought anytime soon.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike his predecessor Jokowi, Prabowo has a personal interest in the defence portfolio and will appoint loyalists <\/span>to<\/span> defence and security <\/span>roles<\/span> to protect his legacies<\/span>. An <\/span>unof<\/span>ficial<\/span> mock-up of the cabinet floated on social media <\/span>shortly after the election pictured <\/span>retired <\/span>Lieutenant General<\/span> Sjafrie<\/span> Sjamsoeddin<\/span>, Prabowo’s confidante and <\/span>classmate in <\/span>the <\/span>special forces (Kopassus) <\/span>as defence minister, and <\/span>retired Lieutenant General <\/span>Muhammad Herindra, <\/span>also from <\/span>Kopassus<\/span>, staying<\/span> on<\/span> as<\/span> deputy<\/span> defence minister<\/span>. That<\/span>‘s probably not <\/span>far <\/span>off what will happen<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prabowo and his ex-Kopassus coterie<\/span> hold the <\/span>realist’s <\/span>world view that <\/span>might equals right. <\/span>Prabowo <\/span>has even written a book on how <\/span>Indonesia\u2019s military <\/span>must<\/span> assiduously protect <\/span>the country’s natural resource wealth<\/span> from foreign actors<\/span>. <\/span>His deputy<\/span> Herindra<\/span> said in an <\/span>interview<\/span><\/a> last year<\/span> that <\/span>\u2018<\/span>the world is anarchistic, chaotic<\/span>. I<\/span>f we are weak, we will be eaten. It is not about Indonesia not having a power projection<\/span>; <\/span> we just want to defend our nation\u2019s sovereignty.<\/span>\u2019<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As for other key positions<\/span>,<\/span> such as the military and police<\/span> chiefs<\/span>, Prabowo will inherit Jokowi appointees who will serve out their terms <\/span>for the<\/span> first few years. <\/span>They are <\/span>considered loyal <\/span><\/a>to Jokowi’s interests<\/span> but<\/span> often also have links to<\/span> Prabowo. F<\/span>or example, <\/span>while\u00a0<\/span>the current <\/span>a<\/span>rmy <\/span>c<\/span>hief of <\/span>a<\/span>taff<\/span>,<\/span> General Maruli Simanjuntak<\/span>,<\/span> is the son-in-law of<\/span> Jokowi’s senior minister and advis<\/span>e<\/span>r<\/span> Luhut<\/span> Binsar<\/span> Panjaitan<\/span>.<\/span> Luhut<\/span> reportedly has good relations with <\/span>Prabowo through their shared background in Kopassus.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For partners like Australia,<\/span> Prabowo<\/span> as defence minister<\/span> has <\/span>helped ensure that Indonesia <\/span>is<\/span> a good neighbour. Under his watch, defence cooperation<\/span> has<\/span> deepened, with Indonesian military cadets graduating for the first time from Australian Royal Military College, Duntroon. Prabowo<\/span> has<\/span> also maintained good <\/span>relations with <\/span>Australia\u2019s <\/span>key ally, the United States, meeting several times with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and overseeing <\/span>the <\/span>return of Indonesian cadets to American military academies<\/span><\/a>. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Indonesia’s military needs investment <\/span>and support in<\/span> developing scenario-based planning and joint<\/span> operations<\/span>. Th<\/span>e<\/span>se are areas <\/span>in which<\/span> Australia, the US and other partners can make<\/span> valuable long-term contributions.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As president, Prabowo <\/span>will want<\/span> Indonesia<\/span> to <\/span>remain a good neighbour to <\/span>Australia<\/span> and<\/span>,<\/span> n<\/span>otwithstanding<\/span> unforeseen events provoking<\/span> pushback<\/span> from the<\/span> Australian public<\/span> or inciting Prabowo\u2019s nationalist sentiments,<\/span> he should\u00a0<\/span>have every chance of success. <\/span>To achieve regio<\/span>nal stability in the<\/span> prevailing strategic environment,<\/span> everybody needs good neighbours.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With Indonesian President Joko (Jokowi) Widodo fast approaching the end of his 10-year term and the February election result now official, it\u2019s time to consider how incoming president Prabowo Subianto will shape the country\u2019s strategic …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":86434,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1114,51,8,864],"class_list":["post-86433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence","tag-defence-cooperation","tag-indonesia","tag-prabowo-subianto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEverybody needs good neighbours: Indonesian defence under Prabowo | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indonesian-defence-under-prabowo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Everybody needs good neighbours: Indonesian defence under Prabowo | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With Indonesian President Joko (Jokowi) Widodo fast approaching the end of his 10-year term and the February election result now official, it\u2019s time to consider how incoming president Prabowo Subianto will shape the country\u2019s strategic ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indonesian-defence-under-prabowo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-12T02:04:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-12T10:51:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/GettyImages-2010492103.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Natalie Sambhi\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Natalie Sambhi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indonesian-defence-under-prabowo\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/GettyImages-2010492103.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/GettyImages-2010492103.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"JAKARTA, INDONESIA - FEBRUARY 14: Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, the current Defence Minister, addresses supporters at an event on February 14, 2024 in Jakarta, Indonesia. 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