{"id":86573,"date":"2024-04-19T15:57:50","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T05:57:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=86573"},"modified":"2024-04-19T16:04:22","modified_gmt":"2024-04-19T06:04:22","slug":"patience-please-aukus-pillar-2-is-indeed-making-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/patience-please-aukus-pillar-2-is-indeed-making-progress\/","title":{"rendered":"Patience, please. AUKUS Pillar 2 is indeed making progress"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

AUKUS <\/span>Pillar <\/span>2<\/span> has a PR problem<\/span>\u2014<\/span>and no, not just among sceptical regional partners.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Compared with evident <\/span>progress<\/span><\/a> on Australia\u2019s future submarine capabilities under Pillar 1, analysts have <\/span>often decried<\/span><\/a> a lack of <\/span>detail<\/span><\/a> or <\/span>engagement<\/span><\/a> around Pillar 2<\/span>, which is aimed at wider defence-<\/span>technology<\/span> cooperation.\u00a0<\/span>Despite <\/span>efforts<\/span><\/a> to <\/span>spotlight<\/span><\/a> trilateral innovation activities in the past 12 months, the absence of clear metrics for success, let alone a shiny new trilaterally developed capability carrying an AUKUS <\/span>sticker, have led some to contend that Pillar 2 is falling short.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Th<\/span>is<\/span> has<\/span> contributed to<\/span> skewed assumptions about what constitutes <\/span>success for<\/span> Pillar 2.<\/span> On closer inspection, <\/span>Pillar <\/span>2 <\/span>is <\/span>actually <\/span>making<\/span> substantial<\/span> progress<\/span>,<\/span> both<\/span> in <\/span>necessarily <\/span>preparing the field for <\/span>futur<\/span>e<\/span> cooperation<\/span> by <\/span>harmonising regulatory and policy settings<\/span> and <\/span>by <\/span>maximising <\/span>operational efficiency and interchangeability of advanced capabilities already in service.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem is tha<\/span>t <\/span>these activities have, until now, not been cast as <\/span>key outputs or <\/span>essential waypoints in the <\/span>service of<\/span> operationalising <\/span>Pillar 2 projects.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perceptions that Pillar 2 is falling short<\/span> understandably <\/span>frustrate<\/span> those <\/span>within the Australian strategic policy community <\/span>seized<\/span> by a<\/span> sense of urgency<\/span>. Compared with the long lead times for Pillar 1, <\/span>officials<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>analysts<\/span><\/a> alike <\/span>have <\/span>framed<\/span><\/a> Pillar 2 as a means to accelerate the delivery of advanced capabilities to the military<\/span> over a much shorter period,<\/span> particularly within the next five years. <\/span>But for m<\/span>an<\/span>y, this is <\/span>contradicted<\/span> by<\/span> an apparent lack of <\/span>\u2018<\/span>new<\/span>\u2019<\/span> material output in nearly two-and-a-half-years<\/span> and<\/span> a <\/span>growing <\/span>to<\/span>–<\/span>do<\/span> list<\/span><\/a>. <\/span>Many members of the policy community <\/span>have <\/span>also bemoan<\/span>ed<\/span> a lack of<\/span> official information about Pillar 2\u2019s innovation functionality objectives<\/span> or<\/span> the barriers<\/span> to setting the enabling environment.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The perception <\/span>that <\/span>Pillar 2 would deliver <\/span>trilaterally developed <\/span>advanced capabilit<\/span>ies<\/span> on an accelerated timeline <\/span>has<\/span> led to inflated expectations about what <\/span>it <\/span>should, <\/span>and<\/span> could,<\/span> achieve<\/span> in the short term. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On one level, this may be attributed to <\/span>the<\/span> lack of information or insight from the AUKUS governments about what has been happening in the Pillar 2 space<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>Y<\/span>et<\/span>,<\/span> since as far back as <\/span>2007<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>policy communities in all three countries<\/span> have understood <\/span>many of the <\/span>challenges<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>barriers<\/span><\/a> to defence industrial base <\/span>integration<\/span><\/a> and technology co-development<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In that context,<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>the <\/span>essential<\/span><\/a> institutional reforms and regulatory harmonisation efforts<\/span> that are now in t<\/span>rain<\/span> in Australia, <\/span>Britain <\/span>and the US <\/span>should<\/span> be considered legitimate outputs of Pillar 2<\/span>, particularly<\/span> in its infancy. <\/span>If AUKUS <\/span>represents a<\/span> revolution<\/span> in<\/span> defence industrial and technology collaboration amongst allies, then<\/span> Pillar 2 is as much about setting the conditions for more streamlined <\/span>cooperation <\/span>on advanced capabilities as it is about the specific capabilities themselves.<\/span> P<\/span>roper<\/span>ly<\/span> sequencing<\/span> these activities\u00a0<\/span>is essential<\/span> in order to<\/span> avoid<\/span> re<\/span>visit<\/span>ing<\/span> known<\/span> problems every time a new trilateral innovation project <\/span>is launched<\/span>. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is how <\/span>the three governments appear to be conceptualising<\/span> of<\/span> Pillar 2<\/span>:<\/span> as a scalpel for dissecting institutional barriers to trilateral<\/span> co-innovation<\/span>.<\/span> Hugh Jeffrey, <\/span>Australia\u2019s deputy secretary of defence for strategy, policy and industry, <\/span>intimated as much during a recent <\/span>CSIS event<\/span><\/a> on Australia<\/span>\u2013<\/span>US defence industrial cooperation.<\/span> That this logic has now been stated publicly helps to recast reform<\/span> efforts<\/span> as <\/span>a core mandate of<\/span> Pillar 2<\/span>, rather than simply a hinderance<\/span> to its success<\/span> or evidence of its stagnation<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In that respect, <\/span>it\u2019s possible to imagine an<\/span> innovation lifecycle <\/span>model <\/span>for <\/span>AUKUS Pillar <\/span>2<\/span> with three <\/span>phases<\/span>: <\/span>reform<\/span>ing<\/span> processes<\/span> and <\/span>sharing best practices<\/span>, <\/span>coordinat<\/span>ing<\/span> innovation and <\/span>technology <\/span>adoption<\/span>, and near-seamless co-innovation.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The first phase is about <\/span>harmonising <\/span>export controls<\/span><\/a>, progressing <\/span>conversations<\/span><\/a> about foreign disclosure, procurement policies, information-sharing<\/span> and certification systems<\/span>, but also<\/span> limited innovation activities centred on data-sharing<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>capability demonstration<\/span>, and building interoperability<\/span>. This has included <\/span>activities<\/span><\/a> such as aligning common artificial-intelligence algorithms on P-8A maritime patrol aircraft to improve data processing <\/span>for<\/span> trilateral anti-submarine warfare<\/span> activities<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The second phase<\/span> focusses on<\/span> coordinated innovation, <\/span>whereby governments simultaneously conduct innovation challenges on an agreed theme<\/span> but within their<\/span> national contexts. An example <\/span>is t<\/span>he AUKUS electronic warfare <\/span>innovation challenge<\/span><\/a>, announced <\/span>in March 2024<\/span>. <\/span>Australia\u2019s 2024 National Defence Strategy suggests that t<\/span>his phase<\/span> may also include<\/span> the<\/span> trilateral <\/span>adoption<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>delivery<\/span> of novel technolog<\/span>ies<\/span> developed<\/span> by any one of the partners<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Once <\/span>these conditions are set<\/span>,<\/span> Pillar <\/span>2<\/span> could<\/span> progress to <\/span>a<\/span> third phase<\/span> and<\/span> ideal end-state<\/span>\u2014<\/span>genuine trilateral <\/span>co-<\/span>innovation<\/span> and co-imagination<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Th<\/span>is<\/span> three-step model helps to <\/span>situate <\/span>the activities and <\/span>progress<\/span> publicly disclosed to date<\/span> in <\/span>a<\/span> broader context<\/span>.<\/span> It is also one that <\/span>resonates<\/span> with<\/span> experts well-versed in AUKUS Pillar 2 policy discussions in <\/span>all three countries<\/span> with <\/span>who<\/span>m<\/span> we have recently engaged.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the long-standing barriers to technology cooperation between even the closest of allies, it\u2019s unsurprising that initial Pillar 2 outputs have focu<\/span>sed on reforms to the enabling environment and <\/span>on <\/span>maximising the operational efficiency and interoperability of <\/span>priority capabilit<\/span>ies<\/span>. <\/span>W<\/span>hile co-innovation and co-production might be the gold-standard <\/span>for AUKUS Pillar 2<\/span>, progress in that area <\/span>is not a<\/span> realistic metric <\/span>to measure success<\/span> in the short-term.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To solve <\/span>Pillar 2\u2019s two-pronged PR problem<\/span>\u2014<\/span>limited <\/span>information and over-hyped expectations<\/span>\u2014<\/span>the three partners <\/span>should<\/span> further<\/span> clarify<\/span> the logic and importance of this <\/span>scalpel<\/span> strategy<\/span> and the<\/span> sequencing of the innovation lifecycle.<\/span> This will <\/span>help <\/span>to not only<\/span> keep industry and innovation stakeholders engaged and supportive, but <\/span>also<\/span> balance expectations about what is possible<\/span> within<\/span> what timeframe.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although <\/span>Pillar 2\u2019s end goal<\/span> is <\/span>more ambitious than what we have seen to date,<\/span> it was always going to be a challenging first step to<\/span> set<\/span> the enabling environment <\/span>for future success<\/span> and <\/span>to <\/span>maximis<\/span>e<\/span> possibilities<\/span> for co-innovation<\/span> wi<\/span>thin <\/span>current <\/span>limitations<\/span>. <\/span>Going forward, c<\/span>learly c<\/span>ommunicating Pillar 2\u2019s necessary sequencing<\/span> to the right audiences <\/span>on an appropriate timeline is critical, as is an appreciation by other AUKUS stakeholders of the complexities of the bigger picture.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUKUS Pillar 2 has a PR problem\u2014and no, not just among sceptical regional partners.\u00a0\u00a0 Compared with evident progress on Australia\u2019s future submarine capabilities under Pillar 1, analysts have often decried a lack of detail or …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1229,"featured_media":86577,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3111,17,790,1114,126,31],"class_list":["post-86573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-aukus","tag-australia","tag-britain","tag-defence","tag-defence-industry","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPatience, please. 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