{"id":86809,"date":"2024-05-07T09:46:56","date_gmt":"2024-05-06T23:46:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=86809"},"modified":"2024-05-07T12:58:50","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T02:58:50","slug":"needed-a-viable-strategy-for-the-indo-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/needed-a-viable-strategy-for-the-indo-pacific\/","title":{"rendered":"Needed: a viable strategy for the Indo-Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Let me be clear: the United States and its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region do not yet have a\u00a0viable\u00a0strategy to meet the challenges, dangers and uncertainties there. One is needed.<\/p>\n

The aim of a new strategy must be to assure peace, stability and prosperity while not falling into the trap of allowing a possibly exaggerated perception of the Chinese military\u00a0threat to displace sound strategic thinking.\u00a0To be effective, strategy must go beyond military\u00a0boundaries and be based on geopolitical and economic realities.<\/p>\n

The plan for the United States and Britain to help Australia acquire eight\u00a0nuclear attack submarines under AUKUS<\/a> is not a strategy. The agreement was made to counter China\u2019s growing military power and increasingly aggressive posture.\u00a0Unless armed with nuclear weapons, eight submarines are not a strategy and may not be affordable.<\/p>\n

In basic terms,\u00a0strategic\u00a0goals\u00a0<\/a>must be to convince, cajole or coerce the other side at the lowest possible cost and risk to do what we want or to stop taking actions harmful to us.\u00a0That strategy must be achievable and affordable in terms of physical, human and financial resources. History guarantees failure unless the country implementing the strategy can precisely define its fundamental interests and has sufficient knowledge and understanding of the other side, not falling prey to ignorance.<\/p>\n

The United States plays a leading role in the Indo-Pacific region.\u00a0However, since World War II, US strategy has been\u00a0stained\u00a0by an absence of sound aims and sufficient knowledge and understanding of conditions in which force is to be used. In August 1964 the United States blundered into Vietnam.\u00a0The Tonkin Gulf Resolution, passed with only two dissenting Congressional votes, was a de facto\u00a0declaration\u00a0of war, triggered by\u00a0erroneous\u00a0reports of an attack by North Vietnamese PT boats against two US destroyers in international waters. No such attack occurred.<\/p>\n

President Lyndon Johnson wanted to stop the Communists on the Mekong instead of the Mississippi. The flawed concept of a monolithic, godless Communist threat underwrote fighting the war. And, consistently, the United States failed to understand the commitment and strategy of North Vietnam and the weaknesses of South Vietnam.<\/p>\n

The 2001 Afghan intervention likewise\u00a0failed\u00a0over the absence of realistic aims and knowledge and understanding of that country and its people.\u00a0The objectives of nation building and imposition of democracy were absurd in these cases.\u00a0But that was no more absurd than attacking Iraq for possessing weapons of mass destruction it did not actually possess.<\/p>\n

In Asia, how\u00a0sufficient\u00a0is US knowledge and understanding about China?\u00a0Next, how well does the US\u00a0understand<\/a>\u00a0regional perceptions?\u00a0And, last, does the current US (and Western) strategy for the Indo-Pacific and China take into account\u00a0answers\u00a0to these questions?<\/p>\n

Overall US military\u00a0strategy\u00a0is to compete, deter and, if war comes, prevail\u2014over China, in this case. But none of these criteria has been defined in terms that can be turned into\u00a0actions. Further, where and how should the US and allies\u00a0compete? Is China\u00a0deterrable\u00a0as it builds its military and influence?\u00a0And who can win a thermonuclear war?<\/p>\n

For the United States, this strategy is\u00a0unaffordable.\u00a0The more the US spends, the more its military force\u00a0shrinks.\u00a0And the United States cannot recruit and retain enough people for its current force.\u00a0Many of these trends also apply to US allies and partners.<\/p>\n

Step one requires a comprehensive, objective analysis of China and its strengths and weaknesses.\u00a0One can\u00a0argue\u00a0that, given its demographics, exploding debt, weakening economic growth, excessive savings rate, and other constraints, China could suffer from massive civil unrest. Some may think that could make China more dangerous.\u00a0But\u00a0history\u00a0shows otherwise.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s \u2018unprecedented military expansion\u2019 needs to be more closely assessed. For example, its navy has nearly 100\u00a0\u00a0Type 22<\/a>\u00a0missile boats. They give it a numerical advantage but hardly a capability advantage.<\/p>\n

Step two is redefining the\u00a0aims\u00a0of an Indo-Pacific strategy in relation to China.\u00a0First must be to\u00a0engage with China in the many areas defined by mutual interest.\u00a0Second must be economic negotiations to relieve unnecessary tensions where possible.\u00a0Third, it is unduly provocative to declare China as the leading or major threat but rely on only a military strategy in facing it, not a broader one.<\/p>\n

The core of the necessary strategy is prevention, applying porcupine defence\u00a0<\/a>as its key military construct in close conjunction with regional allies and partners. Porcupine defence will make any initial attacks by an adversary too expensive in terms of losses to contemplate. Why Taiwan has not fully adopted this strategy is inexplicable. In the unlikely event of war, China\u2019s access beyond the first island chain would be denied by blockade. And expeditionary forces would roll up China\u2019s overseas Belt and Road facilities, imposing further unacceptable costs.<\/p>\n

The submarine project is Pillar 1 of AUKUS. Pillar 2<\/a>, for other technology exchanges, should be expanded to appropriate\u00a0regional states.\u00a0A smart, affordable and effective strategy for the Indo-Pacific based on complete knowledge and understanding of the geostrategic and economic conditions combined with porcupine defence is needed now. The question is whether these first principles will take hold or remain ignored.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Let me be clear: the United States and its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region do not yet have a\u00a0viable\u00a0strategy to meet the challenges, dangers and uncertainties there. One is needed. The aim of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1965,"featured_media":86811,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,52,312,392,31],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNeeded: a viable strategy for the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/needed-a-viable-strategy-for-the-indo-pacific\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Needed: a viable strategy for the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let me be clear: the United States and its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region do not yet have a\u00a0viable\u00a0strategy to meet the challenges, dangers and uncertainties there. 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