{"id":87006,"date":"2024-05-16T14:50:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T04:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=87006"},"modified":"2024-05-16T15:24:26","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T05:24:26","slug":"climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Climate risks that are interconnected, multiplying and intensifying can cascade across natural and human systems. Tipping points or thresholds\u2014at which a small change can trigger a move from one state to a different state far less conducive to human survival and prosperity\u2014may trigger unforeseen chains of events.<\/p>\n

This requires a systems approach to understand them. Yet apart from the 2022 Office of National Intelligence climate-security risk assessment\u2014which is classified and apparently sidelined\u2014there is no sign this understanding is permeating the Australian government\u2019s work. In the Defence Strategic Review and the National Defence Strategy, for example, climate has been reduced to a cameo role, just visible in a far corner of the supposedly much bigger geopolitical screen.<\/p>\n

Given that surveys of global leaders by organisations such as the World Economic Forum consistently rate climate and related impacts as the greatest global threat, it would be prudent for the government to adopt an appropriate framework for assessing these risks in line with risk-management best practices, taking into account the full range of outcomes, including tipping points.\u00a0 This would include a focus on the \u2018fat-tail\u2019 risks and the plausible worst-case scenarios, including the actuarial \u2018risk of ruin\u2019, especially when the damages are so great that there is no second chance to learn from our mistakes.<\/p>\n

These requirements and the systemic nature of the risk means governments must fundamentally rethink the approach to climate risk assessment and response, embracing complex risk analysis. Physical and economic climate models have fundamental limitations, so expert elicitation and scenario planning are crucial components in the analysis. The urgency of required action should explicitly be considered and articulated, with policy and project systems structured to respond at the speed required. And lack of certainty in risk assessment should not be taken as an excuse for inaction if risks are potentially catastrophic in nature.<\/p>\n

A report released recently by the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group titled, \u2018Too Hot To Handle<\/a>\u2019, underscores the urgency, highlighting a disturbing pattern of climate-security risk management failure.<\/p>\n

For climate risk analysts, the past 12 months have been a wild ride, with extraordinary events taking place that are beyond scientific expectations\u2014in some cases beyond model projections\u2014and severe impacts arriving faster than was forecast for major elements of the climate system.<\/p>\n

There is now consistent scientific evidence that the rate of warming has accelerated\u2014from 0.2\u00b0C to 0.3\u00b0C per decade\u2014with a good chance that 2024 will be as warm as the record-smashing 2023 at 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. This means that, in practical terms, the world has reached the lower end of the warming limits established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

Accelerated warming will likely continue for decades, driven by continuing high emissions, plans by major fossil fuel producers to expand production, the declining efficiency of parts of the climate system\u2019s natural carbon storage mechanisms, and cleaner air policies reducing the level of sulfate aerosols, which have been masking some of the warming.<\/p>\n

The eminent climatologist and former NASA science chief James Hansen says the world will likely reach 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels by 2040\u2014well ahead of the outdated projections used by Australian government agencies, which continue to advise the government and its methodologically-challenged domestic National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) that warming by 2050 will be in the 1.5 to 2\u00b0C range.<\/p>\n

This is one example of the government\u2019s failing to understand the nature of current climate risks, with important consequences for Australia’s preparedness to face and mitigate climate-related security challenges.<\/p>\n

United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin\u2014reflecting the views of many of the world\u2019s most experienced scientists\u2014recognises that climate risks are now existential and will result in major, irreversible harm if they are not rapidly addressed. According to mapping of potential threats, the greatest risk lies at the high-end (or \u2018fat tail\u2019) of the range of possible outcomes.<\/p>\n

These should be given particular attention because many physical climate systems exhibit fast, non-linear change that is difficult to model or project and is often associated with tipping points.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

The global failure to embrace complex risk analysis as part of a basic rethink of climate assessment and response is now glaringly obvious. Scientists have described a zone of heat at 2.7\u00b0C of warming\u2014likely to be reached about 2060 on current indications\u2014of near-unlivable conditions, which traditionally have been experienced on only 0.8% of the world\u2019s surface, mainly in the Sahara. That zone (as illustrated above) will include Amazonia, the region around the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, stretching to significant parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia especially Indonesia, and areas of northern Australia and Papua New Guinea. Yet by refusing to confront these implications, Australia seems hell-bent on walking into that furnace.<\/p>\n

Once northern Australia reaches a state of near-unlivable conditions, partial depopulation is likely. The services and infrastructure on which civil society and the military depend\u2014transport and logistics, utilities, health and social and education services for families\u2014will degrade.\u00a0 Yet $22 billion has just been allocated to upgrade northern bases with barely any recognition of this reality.<\/p>\n

The impact of this extreme heat on rice yields, wider food production, water security and the functioning of societies\u2014as well as the potential for conflict and state failure\u2014in many of our key Indo-Pacific partners has not been articulated, nor taken into account in any of the government\u2019s key defence and security initiatives. We are likely building security alliances with states that will collapse.<\/p>\n

The possible breakdown of another key global climate system is also absent from security analysis. There is a non-trivial risk that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which transports heat from the Atlantic tropics to Northern Europe, keeping that part of the world relatively warm, will collapse this century. A July 2023 study<\/a> estimated a \u2018collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions\u2019, with a high confidence (95 percent probability) that it will happen between 2025 and 2095.<\/p>\n

This would have devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.<\/p>\n

A breakdown of this system would cause temperatures to plunge in Britain, Ireland and Scandinavia, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3\u00b0C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest\u2019s ecosystem.<\/p>\n

Peter Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen says that an AMOC collapse<\/a> would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture. In addition, the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world\u2019s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. \u2018In simple terms [it] would be a combined food and water security crisis<\/a> on a global scale.\u2019<\/p>\n

Yet in the government\u2019s analysis of climate risks, no attention has been paid to a potential AMOC collapse. It does not get a mention in the DSR or NDS, or the first pass of the NCRA. No minister or member of either major party has even mentioned it in the current term of the federal Parliament.<\/p>\n

One of the greatest climate-related threats to our future security appears completely absent from the government\u2019s thinking. Today\u2019s real challenges require far broader strategic thinking than is currently evident.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Climate risks that are interconnected, multiplying and intensifying can cascade across natural and human systems. Tipping points or thresholds\u2014at which a small change can trigger a move from one state to a different state far …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":433,"featured_media":87012,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1576,283,1717,3337,3541],"class_list":["post-87006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-security","tag-defence-strategic-review","tag-national-defence-strategy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nClimate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Climate risks that are interconnected, multiplying and intensifying can cascade across natural and human systems. Tipping points or thresholds\u2014at which a small change can trigger a move from one state to a different state far ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-05-16T04:50:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-16T05:24:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-53291726.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"819\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Chris Barrie\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Chris Barrie\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-53291726.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-53291726.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":819,\"caption\":\"CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 07: A file hand-out photo shows tropical cyclone Ingrid as it approaches Cape York Peninsula, Australia as pictured by the MODIS Terra at 0030GMT on March 7, 2005 over the Coral Sea, Australia. An Australian Federal Government report has found that Australian coastal cities and tourist destinations are facing a much higher risk of the destructive effect of climate change resulting in severe storms. The report concludes that likely scenarios include the Australian continent warming by between 1 and 6 degrees by 2070, more droughts which could cut farm output by billions of dollars, tourism suffering from damage to reefs, rainforests and beaches and an increased risk of more tropical cyclones, and longer growing seasons, fewer frosts and higher rainfall in some areas which could help some agribusinesses but adversely affect others from less rainfall. (Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA\/GSFC\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/\",\"name\":\"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-16T04:50:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-16T05:24:26+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c6f2e543e72820db7caec6631f4c6ea1\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c6f2e543e72820db7caec6631f4c6ea1\",\"name\":\"Chris Barrie\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3ff14867259bf448133d6a6010e058b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3ff14867259bf448133d6a6010e058b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Chris Barrie\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/chris-barrie\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis | The Strategist","og_description":"Climate risks that are interconnected, multiplying and intensifying can cascade across natural and human systems. Tipping points or thresholds\u2014at which a small change can trigger a move from one state to a different state far ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2024-05-16T04:50:02+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-05-16T05:24:26+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":819,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-53291726.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Chris Barrie","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Chris Barrie","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-53291726.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-53291726.jpg","width":1024,"height":819,"caption":"CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 07: A file hand-out photo shows tropical cyclone Ingrid as it approaches Cape York Peninsula, Australia as pictured by the MODIS Terra at 0030GMT on March 7, 2005 over the Coral Sea, Australia. An Australian Federal Government report has found that Australian coastal cities and tourist destinations are facing a much higher risk of the destructive effect of climate change resulting in severe storms. The report concludes that likely scenarios include the Australian continent warming by between 1 and 6 degrees by 2070, more droughts which could cut farm output by billions of dollars, tourism suffering from damage to reefs, rainforests and beaches and an increased risk of more tropical cyclones, and longer growing seasons, fewer frosts and higher rainfall in some areas which could help some agribusinesses but adversely affect others from less rainfall. (Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA\/GSFC\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/","name":"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2024-05-16T04:50:02+00:00","dateModified":"2024-05-16T05:24:26+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c6f2e543e72820db7caec6631f4c6ea1"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/climate-disruption-deserves-more-than-a-cameo-role-in-security-analysis\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Climate disruption deserves more than a cameo role in security analysis"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c6f2e543e72820db7caec6631f4c6ea1","name":"Chris Barrie","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3ff14867259bf448133d6a6010e058b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3ff14867259bf448133d6a6010e058b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Chris Barrie"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/chris-barrie\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87006"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/433"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87006"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87006\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87015,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87006\/revisions\/87015"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}