{"id":87030,"date":"2024-05-17T11:21:31","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T01:21:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=87030"},"modified":"2024-05-17T17:33:07","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T07:33:07","slug":"australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Australia needs urgently to improve its understanding of deterrence so that it can build an effective strategy to respond to future provocation and malicious behaviour by aggressive actors.<\/p>\n

Despite having previously been a global thought leader on nuclear weapons and deterrence half a century ago, Australia today doesn\u2019t have a strong grasp of the basics of modern deterrence.<\/p>\n

This deficit, and the pressing need to remediate it, are explored in ASPI\u2019s latest report, \u2018Deterrence, escalation and strategic stability: Rebuilding Australia\u2019s muscle memory\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Deterrence and how to achieve it will also be a key feature of ASPI’s upcoming defence conference, JoiningFORCES<\/a>, in June.<\/p>\n

Despite featuring strongly\u2014and increasingly\u2014in major defence documents such as the Defence Strategic Review, Australia lacks a clear understanding and deep skills in deterrence across the policy community.<\/p>\n

The depth of knowledge and working understanding of deterrence among policymakers and practitioners across the Australian system don\u2019t match the concept\u2019s increasingly frequent invocation.<\/p>\n

Key terms are co-opted to mean whatever\u2019s convenient to the user at the time. Failing to understand the doctrinal and practical application of ideas such as escalation and de-escalation, for example, leads to oversimplification or even wrong-headed interpretations of their purpose.<\/p>\n

Conceptual confusion or the misuse of foundational deterrence terminology risks undermining attempts to develop a workable strategy.<\/p>\n

There are four immediate ways that Australia can build its skills and knowledge of deterrence. It should invest in deterrence knowledge and literacy within Defence and the wider policy community; it should support a stronger public debate to inform the community; it should engage in more deterrence dialogues, exercises, war games and planning with international partners; and it should invest in and use the most effective methodologies for developing robust deterrence strategy.<\/p>\n

Deterrence is a strategy that one actor uses to influence the decision-making calculus of another. It\u2019s inherently psychological and requires deep analytical capability. The core idea is to get inside the cost\u2013benefit analysis of another actor to convince them not to do something.<\/p>\n

For example, Actor\u00a0A deliberately seeks, through a combination of tools and measures (military, diplomatic, economic, informational, industrial, technological) to coerce or compel Actor\u00a0B not to take a specific action, or to cease specific actions. Often, the actors are nation-states, but, both historically and today, non-state actors (including terrorist or other groups) are relevant in deterrence strategy.<\/p>\n

The \u2018muscle memory\u2019 exists to revive these skills. During the Cold War period, Australia built substantial expertise in nuclear deterrence, which was a key focus of its alliance with the US. Ministers and officials made it a key priority.<\/p>\n

The level of expertise that Australia was able to bring to the table won the respect of senior US officials. Anecdotally, that encouraged major concessions on personnel at the facilities (and extended to the posting of Australian personnel to sensitive US strategic sites), consultation mechanisms, and modes of facility operation. It also led to the Americans briefing Australian officials on extremely sensitive nuclear planning, especially throughout the late 1970s and the 1980s.<\/p>\n

Beyond the government itself, experts included Hedley Bull, JDB Miller, Coral Bell, Bob O\u2019Neill, Desmond Ball and Rod Lyon (who remains a leading Australian authority). These figures were all in the top global ranks of strategic intellectuals.<\/p>\n

We need to regain that intellectual heft. However, the new approach needs not to focus just on nuclear deterrence but on integrated or \u2018full spectrum\u2019 deterrence, to avoid potentially catastrophic wars.\u00a0 The full spectrum needs to include deterring irregular warfare\u2014including special and covert operations, political warfare and the \u2018grey zone\u2019 \u2014as well as conventional and nuclear capabilities.<\/p>\n

It also must incorporate the newer domains of space and cyberspace. And it must integrate all elements of national power, including diplomatic, economic and industrial\u2014including technological\u2014power.<\/p>\n

The report stresses that a sophisticated understanding of deterrence includes the appreciation that escalation dynamics are not linear.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s entirely possible to \u2018escalate to de-escalate’. Failing to respond adequately to provocation and malicious behaviour can encourage more aggressive actors to escalate further (weakening deterrence).<\/p>\n

Boosting the level of our strategic thinking on deterrence is also vital to our alliance with the US and other partnerships.<\/p>\n

Japan and South Korea have been taking part in high-level deterrence dialogues with the US for more than a decade, enabling them to build their knowledge.<\/p>\n

They are, as a result, more advanced along the policy and practical learning curve than Australia. From a regional and a US perspective, Australia has some catching up to do.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia needs urgently to improve its understanding of deterrence so that it can build an effective strategy to respond to future provocation and malicious behaviour by aggressive actors. Despite having previously been a global thought …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1363,"featured_media":87032,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[956,125,3337,1755,116,2397],"class_list":["post-87030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-collective-defence","tag-conventional-deterrence","tag-defence-strategic-review","tag-deterrence","tag-nuclear-deterrence","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia needs urgently to improve its understanding of deterrence so that it can build an effective strategy to respond to future provocation and malicious behaviour by aggressive actors. Despite having previously been a global thought ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-05-17T01:21:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-17T07:33:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1463331551_hi-res-copy_back-cover-cropped.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1334\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"786\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Bec Shrimpton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Bec Shrimpton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1463331551_hi-res-copy_back-cover-cropped.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1463331551_hi-res-copy_back-cover-cropped.jpg\",\"width\":1334,\"height\":786,\"caption\":\"1463331551\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/\",\"name\":\"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-17T01:21:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-17T07:33:07+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/5e959e6e0cd572a07d16ad241470f5a3\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/5e959e6e0cd572a07d16ad241470f5a3\",\"name\":\"Bec Shrimpton\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e2e4cdb7c65a979b078868e205413aca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e2e4cdb7c65a979b078868e205413aca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Bec Shrimpton\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/bec-shrimpton\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy | The Strategist","og_description":"Australia needs urgently to improve its understanding of deterrence so that it can build an effective strategy to respond to future provocation and malicious behaviour by aggressive actors. Despite having previously been a global thought ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2024-05-17T01:21:31+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-05-17T07:33:07+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1334,"height":786,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1463331551_hi-res-copy_back-cover-cropped.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Bec Shrimpton","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Bec Shrimpton","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1463331551_hi-res-copy_back-cover-cropped.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iStock-1463331551_hi-res-copy_back-cover-cropped.jpg","width":1334,"height":786,"caption":"1463331551"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/","name":"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2024-05-17T01:21:31+00:00","dateModified":"2024-05-17T07:33:07+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/5e959e6e0cd572a07d16ad241470f5a3"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-rebuild-its-policy-heft-in-deterrence-strategy\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Australia must rebuild its policy heft in deterrence strategy"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/5e959e6e0cd572a07d16ad241470f5a3","name":"Bec Shrimpton","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e2e4cdb7c65a979b078868e205413aca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e2e4cdb7c65a979b078868e205413aca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Bec Shrimpton"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/bec-shrimpton\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87030"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1363"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87030"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87061,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87030\/revisions\/87061"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}