{"id":87152,"date":"2024-05-24T15:08:38","date_gmt":"2024-05-24T05:08:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=87152"},"modified":"2024-05-24T15:39:19","modified_gmt":"2024-05-24T05:39:19","slug":"is-the-europen-union-too-big-for-further-enlargement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-europen-union-too-big-for-further-enlargement\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the European Union too big for further enlargement?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This month the European Union celebrated the 20th anniversary of its\u00a0biggest-ever enlargement, which brought 10 new members into the bloc. That event remains a potent reminder of the EU\u2019s potential to advance peace and unity across the European continent. But, at a time of deep internal divisions and an increasingly volatile external environment, the giddy idealism of 2004 seems a distant dream, and the prospects of further enlargement appear uncertain.<\/p>\n

The promise of EU accession has been long considered a powerful mechanism for strengthening stability, democracy, and prosperity across the continent. The\u00a0addition\u00a0of Portugal and Spain in the 1980s\u2014with democratic transitions in both countries\u2014exemplified this dynamic.<\/p>\n

But by 2004, when eight post-communist countries, Malta and Cyprus joined, not to mention the 2007\u00a0accession\u00a0of Bulgaria and Romania, the logic of enlargement had shifted. Expanding the single market and fortifying the foundations of democracy across Europe were still critical objectives.<\/p>\n

But by welcoming Central and Eastern European countries into the European family, the EU was also demonstrating that it had overcome its past of war and division. The new members, for their part, welcomed the chance to escape centuries of limbo between Russia and the West, even though Russia no longer seemed to pose much of a threat to its neighbours, at least in the eyes of the EU.<\/p>\n

Today, with a war raging on the EU\u2019s doorstep, there is no question that Russia is dangerous. Just four days after the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine\u00a0applied\u00a0for EU membership. Driven by a sense of moral responsibility, rather than genuine enthusiasm for further enlargement, the bloc quickly granted it candidate status. There are now nine recognised\u00a0candidates<\/a>\u00a0for EU membership, mainly in Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n

But, while the 2004 big bang was a success, it cannot serve as a model for future enlargement. Each accession brings its own challenges, which demand nuanced solutions. One key challenge today, which has undermined the old EU enlargement narrative, is democratic backsliding in some member countries.<\/p>\n

Most notably, Hungary has clashed repeatedly with the EU over the anti-democratic policies pursued by Prime Minister Viktor Orban since he returned to power in 2010. In Poland, an Orban-emulating right-wing government was replaced last year by a\u00a0three-party coalition\u00a0committed to shoring up democracy, but tensions persist. Slovakia\u2019s populist-nationalist prime minister, Robert Fico, was recently the target of an\u00a0assassination attempt.<\/p>\n

This trend has undermined EU-level decision-making, with national interests often trumping the will of the majority. For example, Orban repeatedly\u00a0blocked\u00a0EU support for Ukraine and has cultivated\u00a0closer trade and investment ties\u00a0with China at a time when other EU members are seeking to reduce dependence on the Chinese market. Budapest was one of only\u00a0three stops\u00a0Chinese President Xi Jinping made on his recent trip to Europe, and he and Orb\u00e1n announced that their countries will form an \u201call-weather partnership.\u2019<\/p>\n

More broadly, the EU\u2019s vision for the future\u2014from its ambitious European Green Deal to its approach to migration\u2014faces considerable\u00a0resistance, dampening enthusiasm for further integration and enlargement. If the EU institutions are struggling to chart a common vision for\u00a027 member states, how can they possibly accommodate as many as 36? After all, this new EU would not only be bigger; it would also be more diverse.<\/p>\n

The enlargement debate has never been free of questions of geographical determinism. But, recognising the geopolitical and economic advantages of wider membership, the EU sought to avoid potential conflicts not by excluding countries on geographical grounds, but rather by updating its accession policy to include\u00a0conditionality. If a country wants to join the EU, it must meet certain standards in a range of areas, from minority rights to judicial independence. This helps to explain why Turkey\u2019s accession process is indefinitely stalled, despite its candidacy being a geopolitical no-brainer.<\/p>\n

Can Georgia, which\u00a0applied\u00a0for EU membership in 2022, prove more successful at meeting the conditions for EU membership? That now seems unlikely, judging by the government\u2019s recent effort to enact a Russian-inspired \u2018foreign agent\u2019 law requiring civil-society groups and independent media that\u00a0receive\u00a0more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as organisations \u2018bearing the interests of a foreign power\u2019. Though the law was\u00a0vetoed\u00a0by President Salome Zourabichvili and, more importantly, sparked massive protests by a population that\u00a0overwhelmingly supports\u00a0EU accession, the government appears unmoved and is\u00a0ramming\u00a0the bill through.<\/p>\n

Serbia is hardly in a better position. Though the country has been an EU\u00a0accession candidate\u00a0since 2012, only 33 percent of Serbians want to join, according to a\u00a02023 survey. Xi also stopped in Belgrade during his recent European tour,\u00a0signing an agreement\u00a0to build a \u2018shared future\u2019 with Serbia.<\/p>\n

As for Ukraine, its war with Russia is not the only barrier to EU membership. Far-reaching economic and governance\u00a0reforms\u00a0would be needed to meet accession criteria. Moreover, the country\u2019s vast\u00a0agricultural sector\u00a0has raised competition concerns among EU farmers.<\/p>\n

If a new, larger EU is to function, creative solutions will be needed. Many have advocated a multi-speed Europe, in which member countries move toward integration at their own rate, with a set of vanguard countries leading the way. But in the absence of a common vision for the future\u2014meaning different objectives, not just different capacities for integration\u2014what is really needed is a Europe of variable geometry, which offers a more pragmatic approach to integration in the face of irreconcilable differences.<\/p>\n

Today, the EU is at risk of becoming the chessboard on which struggles between the United States and China play out, rather than a player in its own right. How it navigates the enlargement debate, including its success in updating and streamlining decision-making, will help determine whether this risk materialises.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This month the European Union celebrated the 20th anniversary of its\u00a0biggest-ever enlargement, which brought 10 new members into the bloc. 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