{"id":87612,"date":"2024-06-28T15:41:49","date_gmt":"2024-06-28T05:41:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=87612"},"modified":"2024-06-28T15:41:49","modified_gmt":"2024-06-28T05:41:49","slug":"stabilisation-is-helping-beijing-stall-for-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/stabilisation-is-helping-beijing-stall-for-time\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Stabilisation’ is helping Beijing stall for time"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

The recent visit by Premier Li Qiang was characteristic of what is becoming a clear trend in Chinese leaders\u2019 travel, akin to the proverbial arsonist-cum-firefighter, who causes a problem they can then heroically fix.<\/p>\n

Li gave Australia plenty of opportunities to thank him in person for fixing the issues that China has created, from coercive trade measures to the removal and return of giant pandas from our zoos.<\/p>\n

These are certainly areas ‘where we can co-operate’\u2014to borrow from the Australian government\u2019s language. Indeed, they are often areas in which we already were co-operating until Beijing decided to demonstrate its displeasure.<\/p>\n

And the fact of the diplomatic push by Beijing points to an emerging agenda on Beijing\u2019s part: what some in the West have labelled ‘stabilisation’ is really more like stalling for time. This gives Beijing more breathing space to make sense of the new post-pandemic world and assess the implications it will have for its own global ambitions.<\/p>\n

Beijing likely knows it needs time to stabilise its own position and power. To do this, it appears to be seeking to improve the image of its international relationships, particularly with countries in the West.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0wolf warriors have gotten quieter<\/a>\u00a0as China\u2019s diplomats are seeking out any area of cooperation with their foreign counterparts. Huge efforts have been made to show there can be \u2018mutually beneficial and win-win results\u2019 from dealing with China on its terms, where Beijing makes few meaningful concessions on areas of serious disagreement.<\/p>\n

Li Qiang\u2019s visits to Australia and New Zealand are a prime example of this pattern of behaviour. It generated much publicity over the smaller areas where there is opportunity for cooperation: visa-free travel to China, and a series of MOUs on climate, trade and research. But the more substantive areas of geopolitics, on which there is legitimate and important disagreement, were relegated largely to private conversations.<\/p>\n

This pattern is also present in Xi Jinping\u2019s recent visits abroad. Last November\u2019s summit between presidents Biden and Xi resulted in an agreement for the resumption of the talks Beijing had walked out of after Nancy Pelosi\u2019s visit to Taiwan. The return of giant pandas to Washington National Zoo also featured.<\/p>\n

In May, France\u2019s President Emmanuel Macron managed to get a joint statement on the Middle East condemning ‘all forms of terrorism’. However, at least publicly, little progress was made on the much more pressing issue of Beijing\u2019s enabling of Russia\u2019s on-going war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s leaders are likely also waiting to see how for elections in several countries unfold over the course of 2024, including the US presidency.<\/p>\n

Who will be the American president for the next four years is a variable Beijing must factor into its foreign policy ambition of displacing the United States as the world\u2019s preeminent global power. Why waste valuable time and resources now when a US president less interested in America\u2019s role in the world might be just around the corner?<\/p>\n

From Beijing\u2019s perspective, it is better not to waste precious energy on adversarial relationships everywhere, and rather to focus on not taking a single step back on the core interests. Australia is just not as important as the Philippines or Taiwan right now.<\/p>\n

And beyond the uncertainty China faces abroad, it also faces problems on the home front.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s growing pressure on China\u2019s leadership because the country\u2019s reemergence via three years of pandemic isolation has not been smooth sailing. Its economy is\u00a0much weaker than it had expected<\/a>, and segments of Chinese\u00a0society are more jaded<\/a> about whether Xi Jinping\u2019s ‘Chinese Dream’ is going to deliver on its promise of national rejuvenation by mid-century. Add to this the seemingly chaotic international environment and Beijing is almost certainly aware of ‘the high winds and choppy waters’<\/a>\u00a0it now faces in the world.<\/p>\n

But China is a master of scale. It can keep other countries bogged down by an army of diplomats on the small issues on which co-operation is possible. This includes tying up Australia in the minutiae of trade exports restrictions for years. All the while, the bigger areas of disagreement just seem too daunting.<\/p>\n

If anything, the Li visit shows that Beijing is content for the time being with a relationship with countries like Australia that is more about great photo opportunities, and less about reaching substantive agreement on the harder issues.<\/p>\n

There is little evidence that prioritising engagement for engagement\u2019s sake is getting us closer on the big issues ‘where we must disagree’\u2014the other half of the Australian government\u2019s diplomatic formulation. This goes for coercion of Taiwan, aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, and support for Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine. Arguably these areas are getting worse as so-called stabilisation gets better.<\/p>\n

Australia has been dealing with Beijing since the 1970s, and with Xi Jinping as its leader since 2012. The time for official visits as primarily about rapport-building should be over.<\/p>\n

Fewer visits and MOUs would give our diplomats more time to work on the areas where we must disagree with China\u2014not to mention providing fewer things for Beijing to set fire to in future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent visit by Premier Li Qiang was characteristic of what is becoming a clear trend in Chinese leaders\u2019 travel, akin to the proverbial arsonist-cum-firefighter, who causes a problem they can then heroically fix. Li …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1290,"featured_media":87615,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3192,2212,52,1248,601,204],"class_list":["post-87612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anthony-albanese","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-china","tag-chinese-foreign-policy","tag-foreign-affairs","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n'Stabilisation' is helping Beijing stall for time | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/stabilisation-is-helping-beijing-stall-for-time\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"'Stabilisation' is helping Beijing stall for time | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The recent visit by Premier Li Qiang was characteristic of what is becoming a clear trend in Chinese leaders\u2019 travel, akin to the proverbial arsonist-cum-firefighter, who causes a problem they can then heroically fix. 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