{"id":87647,"date":"2024-07-02T09:58:17","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T23:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=87647"},"modified":"2024-07-02T09:59:07","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T23:59:07","slug":"after-bidens-debate-performance-the-world-should-prepare-for-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/after-bidens-debate-performance-the-world-should-prepare-for-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"After Biden’s debate performance, the world should prepare for Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The first, and maybe only, debate between the 45th and 46th presidents of the United States constituted a\u00a0clear win\u00a0for Donald Trump, as far more viewers focused on\u00a0Joe Biden\u2019s apparent physical and mental infirmities than Donald Trump\u2019s evasions and trafficking in partial or outright lies. The question now, though, is what, if any, difference it will make in the presidential election that is now just four months away.<\/p>\n

The debate most likely increases the odds that Trump will occupy the Oval Office come noon on 20 January 2025. Going into Thursday night\u2019s debate, Trump was\u00a0slightly ahead\u00a0in many of the national polls and, more importantly, in the half-dozen swing states that will most likely determine the election\u2019s outcome. The debate only added to this advantage.<\/p>\n

The context favours Trump. This year has already proven to be a tough one for incumbents seeking re-election, as outcomes in\u00a0India\u00a0and\u00a0France\u00a0have demonstrated (with Britain up next). Polls also show a low approval rating for the prime ministers of\u00a0Japan\u00a0and\u00a0Canada, which could lead to a change of leadership in those countries. Biden and the US are poised to be consistent with this trend.<\/p>\n

Like many of his fellow incumbents, Biden has struggled to manage rising immigration and economic challenges. His failure to deal effectively with the\u00a0southern border\u00a0has allowed some\u00a010 million\u00a0people to enter the US illegally. Then there are the effects of inflation, something voters are reminded of every time they go to grocery stores or fill their cars with gasoline. Biden can point to domestic and foreign-policy accomplishments, but they are less salient to many Americans.<\/p>\n

Most critical is the question of his\u00a0age. Doubts are widely and deeply held that Biden is simply too old for what is arguably the world\u2019s most demanding and important job. He is 81, turns 82 in November, and, if re-elected, would turn 86 while still in the White House. And he is an old 81. As the debate demonstrated, he walks stiffly, loses his train of thought and has a weak and raspy voice. Trump is only three years younger and makes little sense when he speaks, often taking bizarre rhetorical detours, but manages to project a more vigorous image.<\/p>\n

Given Biden\u2019s\u00a0better outing\u00a0at a campaign stop the day after the debate, some believe he can bounce back. After all, Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama recovered from poor debate performances. But that was because each was seen as a great orator who had simply had a bad night. Biden\u2019s problem is that his poor showing reinforced an already-entrenched narrative that will be difficult, if not impossible, to alter. His performance could even threaten to turn him into something of a lame duck, further weakening his influence at home and abroad.<\/p>\n

All this said, Biden will be the Democratic Party candidate chosen at the party\u2019s convention this August unless he takes himself out of the running and frees his pledged delegates to vote for someone else. Who this someone would be\u2014Vice President Kamala Harris, a sitting governor or senator, a member of his cabinet\u2014is anybody\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n

It is obvious that Biden and his inner circle are resisting calls (including from sympathetic editors\u00a0at major news outlets) for him to step aside. Neither he nor his loyal lieutenants, many of whom have been close to him for decades, have given any indication that the president will bow out.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s declining political fortunes could well prove to be a drag on other Democratic candidates come autumn. It is possible that a Trump victory could help bring about a Republican takeover of the Senate at the same time Republicans hold the House of Representatives. Together with a Supreme Court that has increasingly demonstrated sympathy for positions supported by Trump and congressional Republicans, this would bring about the American equivalent of a parliamentary system, with power consolidated in the hands of a party\u2014one that is better understood as radical rather than conservative.<\/p>\n

There would be few checks on power strong enough to mitigate this imbalance; on the contrary, Trump\u2019s plans to weaken the independence of the\u00a0civil service, together with his promise to\u00a0politicise\u00a0the Justice Department and regulatory agencies, would concentrate power further. Trump would be free to lower taxes, impose tariffs, further restrict access to abortion, ease already loose controls on gun ownership, enforce immigration law as he sees fit and increase the enormous debt.<\/p>\n

Foreign policy would also be vulnerable to significant change, because the US political system gives broad latitude to the executive. It is quite possible that Trump would reduce or even eliminate US support for Ukraine, hollow out US commitments to NATO, give Israel an even freer hand to prosecute\u00a0war\u00a0in Gaza and Lebanon and build settlements, refuse to participate in global efforts to combat climate change, and prioritise bilateral trade issues with China over broader concerns with Beijing\u2019s behaviour abroad.<\/p>\n

Elections have consequences, and this one more than most, given that the differences between the candidates far exceed any similarities. In the wake of a debate that appears to have tipped the scales against Biden, and with no way of knowing if someone else will be the Democratic candidate and how he or she would fare, US friends and allies should prepare themselves for potentially major changes come January.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The first, and maybe only, debate between the 45th and 46th presidents of the United States constituted a\u00a0clear win\u00a0for Donald Trump, as far more viewers focused on\u00a0Joe Biden\u2019s apparent physical and mental infirmities than Donald …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1911,"featured_media":87648,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2015,1428,2825,31],"class_list":["post-87647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-domestic-politics","tag-donald-trump","tag-joe-biden","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAfter Biden's debate performance, the world should prepare for Trump | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/after-bidens-debate-performance-the-world-should-prepare-for-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"After Biden's debate performance, the world should prepare for Trump | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The first, and maybe only, debate between the 45th and 46th presidents of the United States constituted a\u00a0clear win\u00a0for Donald Trump, as far more viewers focused on\u00a0Joe Biden\u2019s apparent physical and mental infirmities than Donald ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/after-bidens-debate-performance-the-world-should-prepare-for-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-01T23:58:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-01T23:59:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2158937171.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"684\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Richard Haass\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Richard Haass\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/after-bidens-debate-performance-the-world-should-prepare-for-trump\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2158937171.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2158937171.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":684,\"caption\":\"ATLANTA, GEORGIA, UNITED STATES - JUNE 27: President of the United States Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump participate in the first Presidential Debate at CNN Studios in Atlanta, Georgia, United States on June 27, 2024. 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