{"id":88233,"date":"2024-08-06T18:01:59","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T08:01:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=88233"},"modified":"2024-08-06T18:01:59","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T08:01:59","slug":"what-would-a-harris-presidency-mean-for-us-foreign-policy-and-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-would-a-harris-presidency-mean-for-us-foreign-policy-and-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"What would a Harris presidency mean for US foreign policy and Australia?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Vice President Kamala Harris has officially <\/span>secured<\/span><\/a> the Democratic presidential nomination, after the Democratic National Convention announced late Monday evening in DC that 99<\/span> perce<\/span>nt<\/span> of delegates voted for her.<\/span><\/p>\n

ASPI experts provide their analysis below on how Harris, if elected president, would guide US foreign policy and how this would affect Australia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Overview<\/span><\/b>\u2014<\/span>Justin<\/span><\/b> Bassi, executive director<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For Australia, a Harris presidency likely offers continuity with nuance on foreign policy and security. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A priority for Australia with any new president is ensuring they understand the importance of the Indo-Pacific region to America\u2019s security and the value specifically of Australia as a partner. No other country is at once an American ally, a member of the two most significant minilateral partnerships\u2014AUKUS and the Quad\u2014and a close partner of other countries in the region, through for example its membership of the Pacific Islands Forum and its position as ASEAN\u2019s first comprehensive strategic partner.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The new president\u2019s in-tray will be bursting with competing priorities across Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, with increasing disinformation and foreign interference online, and malign actors looking to sow dissent in democracies. Compared with the 2016 and 2020 elections, it may be harder this time to make the case that countering China in the Indo-Pacific is the predominant challenge.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Harris would likely maintain consistency with the Biden foreign policy that has been set while she was Vice President. However, it will be important for Australia to identify and understand where there may be nuanced views between Harris and Biden as well as her likely foreign policy and security team, most probably different personnel to those around Biden. We\u2019ve seen such a nuance on Israel\u2014with Harris clearly putting a greater emphasis in public remarks on Palestinian civilian casualties. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Australia will need to ensure that the necessary focus of the US on the two war-torn regions of Europe and the Middle East does not see a Harris presidency deprioritising the Indo-Pacific, and specifically competition with China, as the top priority for US foreign and security policy.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Defence\u2014Bec Shrimpton, director of defence strategy and national security<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Harris is likely to <\/span>bring<\/span> continuity on key defence policy and force posture issues with <\/span>decisions guided by a traditionalist lens on the role of the US in global stability and its support for the rules-based international order<\/span>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To date, Harris has <\/span>appeared<\/span> domestic<\/span>ally <\/span>focused<\/span>, <\/span>prioritising<\/span> law and order<\/span>, suggesting<\/span> she will<\/span> instinctively pursue<\/span> foreign policy<\/span> that <\/span>similarly<\/span> defends<\/span> rules and international law<\/span>. <\/span>One question, however<\/span>, with <\/span>the US facing so <\/span>many domestic <\/span>challenges<\/span>, is how much Harris thinks the US needs to be the ‘global enforcer’. <\/span>G<\/span>iven the extent of global instability, she will undoubtedly face early tests on <\/span>the US <\/span>role in the world and <\/span>her <\/span>willing<\/span>ness<\/span> to use American defence capabilities to intervene in global conflicts and disputes. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Part of the <\/span>question<\/span> relates to the extent to which Harris sees strategic competition with China as the top US foreign and defence policy and whether she would be a president who diplomatically manages that competition or aims to win it. The indications are that Harris might begin as more of a<\/span> ma<\/span>nager<\/span>.<\/span> B<\/span>u<\/span>t<\/span> t<\/span>he r<\/span>ea<\/span>li<\/span>ty of the strategic environment may require <\/span>her<\/span> to actively pursue superiority as quickly as possible across a range of are<\/span>as.<\/span> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Given<\/span> he<\/span>r<\/span> vi<\/span>c<\/span>e<\/span>–<\/span>p<\/span>re<\/span>si<\/span>de<\/span>n<\/span>ti<\/span>a<\/span>l<\/span> r<\/span>espo<\/span>ns<\/span>ib<\/span>ilities, including as Chair of the National Space Council, Harris will understand better than most<\/span> leaders<\/span> the importance of space to <\/span>the defence and economic prosperity of the US and its <\/span>partners. <\/span>Harris has<\/span>, for instance, launched efforts to create a moratorium<\/span> on the use of<\/span> direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles <\/span>that can destroy rivals\u2019<\/span> space<\/span> craft<\/span>\u2014<\/span>demonstrat<\/span>ing strong<\/span>, normative leadership.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Space is <\/span>one<\/span> area in which Aus<\/span>tra<\/span>l<\/span>ia<\/span> can work closely with the US, aligning American interests with Australia\u2019s <\/span>comparative advantage in <\/span>capabilities.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

US foreign policy and strategic vision\u2014<\/span><\/b>Greg Brown, DC senior analyst<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

With all his years in the Senate, <\/span>Biden was a <\/span>known <\/span>quantity on foreign and security policy\u2014a traditionalist who beli<\/span>eved in alliances and a strong role for the US in the world. <\/span>The <\/span>striking thing about Harris, by contrast, is how little we h<\/span>ave to go on.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

She was a district attorney and <\/span>attorney<\/span>–<\/span>general in California; served a short stint in the US Senate; ran for president in 2019 but dropped out before primary voting began; and served as a loyal Biden team member and vice president. That raises the question whether the foreign policy positions she’s expressed simply reflect that loyalty, and whether she will assume new positions if she becomes president.<\/span><\/p>\n

Her unusual pathway to the presidential candidacy means there<\/span>\u2019s been<\/span> no adversarial primary process in which she\u2019s had to defend her foreign policy positions against even friendly rivals.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Over<\/span> the past fortnight, Harris <\/span>h<\/span>asn\u2019t been asked media questions or spoken about <\/span>foreign <\/span>and security policy.<\/span> Key questions include: w<\/span>ill <\/span>she<\/span> double down on support for Ukraine<\/span>? U<\/span>pend President Joe Biden\u2019s support for Israel<\/span>?<\/span> D<\/span>istance the US from Saudi Arabia<\/span>?<\/span> R<\/span>evive the old Obama policies of reaching out to Iran? <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Above all, <\/span>w<\/span>ill she shift attention, time, and money away from international security issues to promote the domestic causes we know she cares about? Australians should be wondering<\/span>:<\/span> w<\/span>here does the Indo-Pacific region and its key theatres rank in Harris\u2019s prioriti<\/span>s<\/span>ation list<\/span>\u2014<\/span>and why<\/span>?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

China<\/span><\/b>\u2014<\/b><\/span>Bethany Allen, head of program for China investigations and analysis<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

While another Donald Trump presidency would likely bring <\/span>greater<\/span> unpredictability to the US-China relationship, Harris is likely to pursue a steady policy that, at least initially, is unlikely to veer sharply from Biden\u2019s tough but measured approach. Though she has never visited China or Taiwan, Harris has criticised China\u2019s human rights record, expressed support for Taiwan<\/a> and has <\/span>repeated<\/span> Biden\u2019s line that the US must <\/span>\u2018responsibly manage the competition\u2019. Indeed on Taiwan, she’s declared that the US ‘will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defence, consistent with our longstanding policy’.<\/span><\/p>\n

Harris has denounced Beijing\u2019s efforts to wrest control of shoals in the South China Sea that are occupied by the Philippines and sit within its exclusive economic zone, calling those attempts ‘unlawful and irresponsible’ as she stood aboard a Philippines ship near the shoals.<\/span><\/p>\n

She has also said that Trump \u2018lost that trade war\u2019, suggesting she approves of going head-to-head with China economically, but not in the same way Trump did. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Harris is also likely to keep the interests of Chinese-Americans near the front of her mind. She represented California, a state with large Chinese diaspora communities, as a senator from 2017 to 2021 and before that served as the state\u2019s attorney general. Chinese-Americans suffered from a rise in anti-Asian racism during the pandemic, fuelled in part by inflammatory political rhetoric.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Southeast Asia<\/span><\/b>\u2014<\/b><\/span>Fitriani, senior analyst<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Harris showed commitment to expanding US-Southeast Asia relations by attending the 2023 ASEAN Summit in Jakarta. Her attendance was <\/span>meant<\/span> to dispel doubts about <\/span>US <\/span>commitment<\/span> to the region and to <\/span>the centrality of ASEAN<\/span>\u2014given <\/span>Biden had <\/span>visited <\/span>India<\/span> and <\/span>Vietnam<\/span> but miss<\/span>ed the biggest head-of-state meeting in the region. On the <\/span>South China Sea, Harris made a show of support by travelling to the Philippine<\/span>s<\/span> island <\/span>of <\/span>Palawan<\/span>, which is next to the <\/span>disputed wate<\/span>rs<\/span>, and <\/span>emphasising<\/span> that <\/span>the<\/span> US would support its partner in the face of <\/span>intimidation and coercion<\/span>. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Critics noted that such travel would only aggravate China. However, Harris\u2019s <\/span>policy towards Southeast Asia, if she wins, is predicted by <\/span>several<\/span><\/a> analysts<\/span><\/a> from the region to be a continuation of the Biden administration\u2019s. That includes<\/span> providing<\/span> an unprecedented <\/span>US$1.2 billion<\/span><\/a> in economic, development and security assistance to the region and <\/span>a<\/span> further<\/span> US$90 million funding for ASEAN. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The US\u2019s sustained commitment to Southeast Asia is appreciated by<\/span> commentators in<\/span> the <\/span>Philippines<\/span> and <\/span>Vietnam\u2014<\/span>two countries<\/span> where<\/span> analys<\/span>ts have published <\/span>favourable<\/span> articles<\/span> on Harris\u2019 presidential nomination. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That said, most<\/span> senior<\/span> members of the<\/span> Southeast Asian<\/span> political <\/span>establish<\/span>ment<\/span> ar<\/span>e<\/span> sitting on the fence<\/span> rega<\/span>rding<\/span> Harris\u2019 nomination<\/span>. A notable<\/span> except<\/span>ion is the intervention of<\/span> Indonesia\u2019s former<\/span> president Megawati<\/span>\u2014its first and only female leader\u2014<\/span>who openly <\/span>endors<\/span>ed<\/span> Harris <\/span>and sent her <\/span>a support <\/span>letter<\/span>, wishing for another female <\/span>world leader<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India<\/span><\/b>\u2014<\/b><\/span>Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, resident senior fellow<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

There are<\/span> plenty of<\/span> divisions within the US foreign policy establishment<\/span>\u2014such as on<\/span> Gaza and Ukraine. But on India, there is a general bipartisan support for closer relations, which is likely to continue in a Harris administration. That said, it is also likely to be a much more stable relationship than what <\/span>we might see<\/span> under the mercurial <\/span>Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, there is little indication to suggest that India <\/span>would<\/span> be a major focus of a Harris administration either. New Delhi itself appears to value its strategic autonomy more than closer relations with the <\/span>US<\/span>. <\/span>T<\/span>here have been recent tensions related to alleged Indian covert operations targeting Sikh separatists in the US and other countries. The Indian foreign policy establishment is also somewhat wary of Harris\u2019s possible focus on democracy and human rights in foreign policy, which has been another source of irritation in US-India relations. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Harris can be expected to work through these issues with India because the relationship is important to both countries given their common worry about China\u2019s growing power and behavior.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Climate\u2014<\/span><\/b>Mike Copage, head of the climate and security policy centre<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

On<\/span> global clean<\/span> energy tech and supply trends, a Harris administration is unlikely to depart much from Biden\u2019s approach.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If anything, <\/span>Harris appears more ambitious on climate<\/span>\u2014<\/span>having co-sponsored the Green New Deal in 2019 and pitched a carbon tax in her 2020 platform<\/span>. While her near-term focus as president would be on implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, her administration could ramp up domestic climate spending as inflation cools further. This looks all the more likely because her position on trade (favouring American manufacturing in clean tech) is also <\/span>consistent with Biden\u2019s, though firmer on labour and environmental safeguards<\/span>. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Harris\u2019<\/span> domestic energy policy positions<\/span>, such as her<\/span> proposed <\/span>fracking ban in her 2020 platform<\/span>,<\/span> might be moderated to secure support in swing states<\/span> that have significant oil and gas projects, <\/span>such as Pennsylvania, <\/span>but that\u2019s unlikely to sway her foreign policy positions on climate. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On international climate finance,<\/span> her record <\/span>and messaging<\/span><\/a> on environmental justice suggest she could bring a strengthened focus on responding to the effects of climate change. During the COP28 talks<\/span>,<\/span> she announced the Biden administration\u2019s US$3 billion additional investment in the Green Climate Fund. This was not received as a significant contribution, given the <\/span>high adaptation costs and funding gaps<\/span><\/a> facing developing countries. Though she has not adopted a clear position on enhancing climate finance, doing so would be consistent with her past positions and could inform her priorities as president<\/span>\u2014<\/span>with implication<\/span>s<\/span> for funding across climate-exposed developing countries, including in the Pacific. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Engaging young voters<\/span><\/b>\u2014<\/b><\/span>Marika Vigo, DC events and communications manager<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Unless there is a strong turnout from young voters, Harris faces a narrow path to <\/span>the <\/span>270 Electoral College votes<\/span> neede<\/span>d to win<\/span>. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Within a day of Biden announcing his departure from the race and endorsement of Harris, the Harris for President campaign adopted a robust digital strategy to engage online communities of Gen Z voters. The <\/span>@KamalaHQ<\/span><\/a> account began posting topical memes, sharing news of endorsements and fundraising records, and promoting Harris\u2019<\/span> policy record and priorities. She was depicted in stark contrast to Trump and vice-presidential candidate JD Vance through a series of clips of her archived speeches and committee hearings.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If <\/span>her<\/span> campaign <\/span>is successful with<\/span> this strategy of engagement,<\/span> there is a good chance<\/span> that Gen Z voters will deliver <\/span>Harris<\/span> the presidency. <\/span>In the 48<\/span> hour period following Biden\u2019s announcement, <\/span>daily voter registration increased 700<\/span> percent, with voters aged 18 to 34 accounting for 83<\/span> percent<\/span> of those new registrations<\/span>, according to<\/span> the non-partisan<\/span> Vote.org<\/span>.<\/span> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And should this bloc of voters deliver Kamala the presidency, they will expect<\/span> her to listen on issues they care about<\/span>\u2014<\/span>climate change, gun violence, reproductive rights, LGBTQIA+ protections, <\/span>the <\/span>war in Gaza <\/span>to name a f<\/span>ew<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To ensure<\/span> a stable <\/span>campaign <\/span>transition, Harris will <\/span>likely maintain Biden\u2019s <\/span>platform<\/span> as much as possible,<\/span> including<\/span> on<\/span> international issues. But <\/span>if she wins<\/span>, <\/span>she may be open to hearing more diverse view<\/span>s<\/span>, especially from<\/span> young Americans on pressing topics such as <\/span>support for Gaza.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Harri<\/span>s\u2019s <\/span>necessarily restrained<\/span> presence<\/span> as vice president<\/span> m<\/span>ight<\/span> prove a<\/span>n<\/span> asset <\/span>now<\/span> as she gets the chance to build<\/span> her own<\/span> strong coalitions <\/span>and carve out her own <\/span>priorities, particularly on <\/span>international affairs.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vice President Kamala Harris has officially secured the Democratic presidential nomination, after the Democratic National Convention announced late Monday evening in DC that 99 percent of delegates voted for her. ASPI experts provide their analysis …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":840,"featured_media":88240,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,56,2825,2827,31],"class_list":["post-88233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-indo-pacific","tag-joe-biden","tag-kamala-harris","tag-united-states","dinkus-us-election-2024"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat would a Harris presidency mean for US foreign policy and Australia? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-would-a-harris-presidency-mean-for-us-foreign-policy-and-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What would a Harris presidency mean for US foreign policy and Australia? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Vice President Kamala Harris has officially secured the Democratic presidential nomination, after the Democratic National Convention announced late Monday evening in DC that 99 percent of delegates voted for her. ASPI experts provide their analysis ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-would-a-harris-presidency-mean-for-us-foreign-policy-and-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-08-06T08:01:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/GettyImages-2163962508.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ASPI staff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ASPI staff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-would-a-harris-presidency-mean-for-us-foreign-policy-and-australia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/GettyImages-2163962508.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/GettyImages-2163962508.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"ATLANTA, UNITED STATES - JULY 30: Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris greets the crowd during her presidential campaign rally in Atlanta, Georgia, United States on July 30, 2024. 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