{"id":88455,"date":"2024-08-21T12:08:48","date_gmt":"2024-08-21T02:08:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=88455"},"modified":"2024-08-21T17:53:56","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T07:53:56","slug":"kishidas-departure-is-not-all-bad-news-for-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kishidas-departure-is-not-all-bad-news-for-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Kishida\u2019s departure is not all bad news for Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

At face value, the impending resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next month might worry Australian policy pundits who favour continuity. But a new leader, set to be elected on 27 September, may be empowered to launch bolder reforms on national security policy in ways that Kishida presently is not. That would ultimately benefit Japan\u2019s regional security partners, including Australia.<\/p>\n

Kishida’s 14 August announcement that he would not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the position that makes him prime minister, is not surprising. His party has suffered political funding scandals, and Japan\u2019s economic performance is only middling. These factors saw support rates for both Kishida and the LDP plunge to a record low of in June, leading Kishida to judge<\/a> that he would not have enough party support to remain as leader.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, he will leave office with a relatively successful foreign and defence policy record. Kishida enhanced the US\u2013Japan alliance, revived Japan\u2013South Korea bilateral relations and trilateral activities with the United States, and upgraded the Australia\u2013Japan relationship to a quasi-alliance<\/a>. On defence, he overhauled Japan\u2019s security posture, championing major funding increases and force structure changes, including the procurement of long-range strike weapons, mobilising support with the adage \u2018Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Australia wants that trajectory to continue, so it needs Kishida’s successor to be bold on policy and, ideally, politically durable. Similar<\/a> to when former prime minister Yoshihide Suga resigned in 2021, there are concerns that a return to revolving-door leadership could stall Japan\u2019s ambitious defence reform agenda and blunt its regional foreign policy edge.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding that risk, Kishida\u2019s departure could yet prove beneficial for Australia if his successor is empowered to tackle difficult policy challenges.<\/p>\n

It’s true that the leadership change comes at a time when Japan has become increasingly central to Australian regional strategy, marked by the elevation of the strategic partnership in the 2022 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation<\/a>. Kishida implemented crucial defence and foreign policy initiatives, improving practical cooperation between the two countries. If these efforts are stalled, it may perpetuate the views<\/a> of some in Australia\u2019s policy community that Japan is incapable of moving faster or undertaking ambitious policy reform.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Kishida\u2019s ability and willingness to make difficult policy trade-offs has waned significantly with his declining political fortunes in office. Some also argue that Kishida pursued security policy reforms for reasons of domestic political survival, rather than his own beliefs. Indeed, despite overseeing a revolution in Japanese national security, he may be better remembered for implementing the strategic vision and policy agenda of Shinzo Abe rather than his own. If Kishida had stayed on and failed to revive his public and party standing, his policy ambiguity and dwindling influence could have complicated complex decisions such as Japan\u2019s potential engagement with AUKUS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For Australia, then, what matters is the extent to which Kishida\u2019s successor can make bold national security policy decisions, rather than simply stay the course.<\/p>\n

Many potential candidates have substantial national security experience, including former defence minister and LDP secretary general Shigeru Ishiba, and former foreign minister and current LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi. The list also includes cabinet ministers Taro Kono, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Ken Saito, Sanae Takaichi and Yoko Kamikawa, as well as such other influential politicians as Kato Katsunobu, Shinjiro Koizumi, Takayuki Kobayashi and Shigeharu Aoyama.<\/p>\n

Some public surveys place Ishiba at the head of the pack. But the sheer volume of potential candidates and complex LDP factional dynamics means the race is hard to pick.<\/p>\n

On national security, conservatives like Ishiba, Takaichi and Aoyama are quite forward-leaning, arguing for bold amendments to Article 9 of the constitution and for transforming Japan\u2019s defence-oriented policy. Ishiba, for instance, has questioned the concept of \u2018minimum necessary force\u2019 derived from the constitution\u2019s prohibition of maintaining \u2018war potential\u2019, asking<\/a> whether the minimum threshold for deterring North Korea should be the same for China.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, moderate realists such as Motegi, Kono, Kamikawa, Koizumi and Kobayashi would likely inherit Kishida\u2019s foreign policy brand, balancing defence investments and enhancements to the US\u2013Japan alliance against stable relations with China. Kono, for instance, is known both for his unusual bluntness in framing China-related security challenges and his straight talking on tricky alliance\u00a0issues.<\/p>\n

Whoever replaces Kishida, Canberra and Tokyo will keep working closely with each other and with Washington to manage the deteriorating strategic balance in the region. The key variable for Australia will be the capacity of Japan\u2019s new leader to act swiftly and decisively on policy implementation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At face value, the impending resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next month might worry Australian policy pundits who favour continuity. But a new leader, set to be elected on 27 September, may be …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":88456,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,2015,135],"class_list":["post-88455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-domestic-politics","tag-japan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKishida\u2019s departure is not all bad news for Australia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kishidas-departure-is-not-all-bad-news-for-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kishida\u2019s departure is not all bad news for Australia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At face value, the impending resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida next month might worry Australian policy pundits who favour continuity. 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