{"id":88501,"date":"2024-08-23T06:00:24","date_gmt":"2024-08-22T20:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=88501"},"modified":"2024-08-23T10:19:42","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T00:19:42","slug":"new-caledonia-crisis-a-turning-point-in-pacific-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-caledonia-crisis-a-turning-point-in-pacific-security\/","title":{"rendered":"New Caledonia crisis: a turning point in Pacific security"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n

New Caledonia is the most pressing issue in Pacific security right now. <\/span>New Caledonia\u2019s future is a <\/span>black swan<\/span><\/a> risk: waiting in plain sight, yet unknown to most.<\/span><\/p>\n

In May 2024, New Caledonia erupted into violence and unrest after the French government changed local voting eligibility rules. <\/span>What happens next could be a game changer for the Pacific region.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As I detail in my report <\/span>When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia<\/span><\/i><\/a>, published by ASPI today, the Chinese Communist Party has been engaging in covert activities in New Caledonia over decades, targeting local elites and business figures. CCP influence will remain a significant factor in New Caledonian politics whatever the islands\u2019 future.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There is no evidence of the Chinese government\u2019s direct involvement in the current unrest and violence. Even so, China has featured repeatedly in <\/span>commentary<\/span><\/a> about the New Caledonian riots despite no reports of Chinese businesses being targeted.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the first two weeks of looting and unrest, the French Government blocked the Chinese social media app TikTok (<\/span>\u6296\u97f3<\/span>) in New Caledonia. French <\/span>Prime Minister Gabriel Attal<\/span><\/a> said TikTok was banned \u2018due to interference and manipulation of the platform, whose parent company is Chinese. The app is used as a medium for spreading disinformation on social networks, fed by foreign countries, and relayed by the rioters.\u2019<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing has been quick to push back at any hint that it might be involved in the unrest. In June 2024, <\/span>Global Times<\/span><\/i>, a CCP mouthpiece, <\/span>posted a scathing attack<\/span><\/a> on Western coverage of the unrest, saying that the media were scaremongering about China as a \u2018shadow\u2019 behind the protests.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing has <\/span>been <\/span>noticeably circumspect<\/span><\/a> in public commentary about the social unrest in New Caledonia. As my paper details, media accounts have also been extremely limited, which <\/span>will reflect <\/span>official guidance to \u201c<\/span>Follow the Xinhua line<\/span><\/a>\u201d.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

China has longstanding political, economic, and strategic interests in New Caledonia, <\/span>and the careful rhetoric reflects these interests<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A 1987 assessment by China\u2019s foreign ministry is a prescient reminder that Beijing has long set its sights on New Caledonia as key to the strategic situation in the Pacific:<\/span><\/p>\n

Once New Caledonia\u2019s national independence movement is taken advantage of by a superpower, changes that are unfavourable to the United States will take place in the strategic balance in the South Pacific. On the other hand, if the United States supports New Caledonia\u2019s national independence movement, it may spread to other islands and trust territories in the Pacific and encourage other peoples to start their own independence movement. This is what the United States would not like to see<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

New Caledonia <\/span>was an important military and intelligence base for the allies in World War II, and it is crucial to France\u2019s current security efforts across the Southwest Pacific. <\/span>New Caledonia also has 25 percent of the world\u2019s nickel resources. <\/span>Over the last ten years, <\/span>New Caledonia has become dependent on the Chinese market.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result of the riots and unrest since May 2024, the New Caledonian <\/span>economy is in ruins<\/span><\/a> and its society is at a crossroads. One potential pathway could be closer relations with Beijing.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2021, a report written for the New Caledonian independence group <\/span>Front de Lib\u00e9ration Nationale Kanak et Socialiste<\/span><\/i> (FLNKS), proposed that New Caledonia could become a \u2018Djibouti of the Pacific\u2019 and generate income by charging rent to foreign troops and hosting military bases from China and other interested states. <\/span>FLNKS make up some of the key members of the current New Caledonian government.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Would the New Caledonian government reach out to China to rebuild after the devastation of the riots? The risk is that New Caledonia will switch from one form of dependency to another. In the interviews I conducted in my paper, many New Caledonian leaders said they did not want that scenario.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The<\/span> violent unrest in New Caledonia shows <\/span>no sign of ending<\/span>. The rioters have caused an estimated <\/span>\u20ac2.2\u202fbillion worth of damage<\/span><\/a>. Hundreds of cars, homes and private businesses have been looted and burned. <\/span>Nine civilians and two gendarmes<\/span><\/a> have been killed. France has imposed <\/span>emergency measures<\/span><\/a>, deployed troops to New Caledonia’s ports and international airport, and sent an additional <\/span>500 police and gendarmes<\/span><\/a> to support the existing 1800-strong <\/span>force. UN human rights <\/span>rapporteurs have <\/span>expressed concerns<\/span><\/a> about France\u2019s repressive tactics.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

My report makes it clear that France, the EU, U.K., Australia, Japan, Singapore, Korea, New Zealand, the U.S. and the Pacific Island Forum should consider what role they can play in helping to diversify and rebalance the New Caledonian economy as a means of supporting greater resilience and autonomy and to help with the rebuild.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Peaceful negotiations are required to end the social and political crisis. The stakes are too high to leave it all to fate.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New Caledonia is the most pressing issue in Pacific security right now. New Caledonia\u2019s future is a black swan risk: waiting in plain sight, yet unknown to most. In May 2024, New Caledonia erupted into …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1541,"featured_media":88502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,2595,921,77,99],"class_list":["post-88501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-foreign-interference","tag-new-caledonia","tag-pacific","tag-south-pacific"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNew Caledonia crisis: a turning point in Pacific security | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-caledonia-crisis-a-turning-point-in-pacific-security\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Caledonia crisis: a turning point in Pacific security | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New Caledonia is the most pressing issue in Pacific security right now. 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