{"id":88966,"date":"2024-09-12T06:00:31","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T20:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=88966"},"modified":"2024-09-11T14:15:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T04:15:47","slug":"the-12-elements-of-cold-war-2-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-12-elements-of-cold-war-2-0\/","title":{"rendered":"The 12 elements of cold war 2.0"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The contours of a new and dangerous era are in place. The world has gone from a chilly peace to a new cold war.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cold war 2.0 has rhymes from version 1.0, yet the origin stories emphasise the differences.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The 20th century cold war was bred by victory and failure, a child of war and depression; ideology was its heart as two secular religions\u2014communism and democracy\u2014fought Europe\u2019s last \u2018religious\u2019 war.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The new cold war carries less ideological baggage, born from decades of peace in Europe and Asia and a wonderful period of economic and scientific achievement.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Version 2.0 draws on the successes of globalisation in the post-cold war space, a golden age. But that warmth has faded and turned icy as it veers away from borderless optimism to revive the contest of great powers.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These are the elements of cold war 2.0:<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1. The United States versus China:<\/strong> the two superpowers face off in the contest of the century. The balance between cooperation and competition will keep them from crashing into conflict.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Multipolarity:<\/strong> Cold war 1.0 saw the non-aligned nations standing as far as possible from the bipolar divide, seeking individual benefits from the Soviet Union and the US. Today, everyone must dance. The non-aligned option flowers as many shades of multi-alignment. Nations choose where they stand on each issue, and keep making fresh choices. In the multipolar dance, China and the US must court, not demand, commitment.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Indo-Pacific:<\/strong> The central balance of international power this century will be <\/span>set in the Indo-Pacific<\/span><\/a>. Australia\u2019s Defence Strategic Review declares: \u2018The Indo-Pacific is the most <\/span>important geostrategic region<\/span><\/a> in the world\u2019. The National Defence Strategy judges that the global competition is \u2018<\/span>sharpest and most consequential<\/span><\/a> in the Indo-Pacific\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Economics:<\/strong> The world\u2019s top two economies wrestle and wrangle, even as they work together in an <\/span>economic relationship<\/span><\/a> that is huge, entrenched and multifaceted. Washington says the main challenge it faces is \u2018competition in an <\/span>age of interdependence<\/span><\/a>\u2019. This economic intimacy is a vital difference between 1.0 and 2.0.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. De-risking:<\/strong> The vogue word is \u2018decoupling\u2019, but that bumps hard against what globalisation delivers. Derisking is limited deglobalisation. Washington\u2019s \u2018small yard and high fence\u2019 approach walls off vital industries, science and minerals to China. This will draw supply chains closer, applying the cold war test to trade policy and business regulation. Geoeconomics will turn mercantilist and protectionist.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Technology race:<\/strong> China has the foundations to be the world\u2019s technology superpower in major and emerging technologies. <\/span>ASPI\u2019s critical technology tracker<\/span><\/a> identified China as the leading country in <\/span>57 of 64 technologies<\/span><\/a>, spanning defence, space, energy, the environment, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robotics, cyber, computing, advanced materials and quantum. The US and its allies face an extraordinary tech challenge.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. Cyber-attacks and artificial intelligence:<\/strong> The cyber domain is where the cold war rages every day. The grey zone battlefield is a constant, pervasive digital conflict of theft, espionage, malware, disinformation and fakes. Artificial intelligence is the revolution that will remake much. The realm \u2018<\/span>of minds and machines<\/span><\/a>\u2019 is the arms race of 2.0. The US aims to build norms on responsible military use of <\/span>AI and autonomy<\/span><\/a>, seeing control negotiations with Beijing on AI just as it does on nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

8. Nuclear:<\/strong> The nuclear threat is <\/span>more complex and less predictable<\/span><\/a>. Russia revives the nightmare, repeatedly threatening to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The structural change is China\u2019s build-up. Beijing is on track to amass <\/span>1,000 nuclear warheads<\/span><\/a>, up from around 200 in 2019. The US Defence Department describes \u2018<\/span>a new nuclear age<\/span><\/a>\u2019 of rapidly modernizing and expanding nuclear arsenals, \u2018an unprecedented mix of multiple revisionist nuclear challengers who are uninterested in arms control or risk reduction\u2019, openly threatening to employ nuclear weapons to achieve their aims.<\/span><\/p>\n

9. Space:<\/strong> Space is a military operational domain. Satellites revolutionised intelligence and warfighting, allowing every inch of earth to be watchable and targetable. The moon will matter in 2.0 just as it did in 1.0. The race is on between <\/span>China<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Russia<\/span><\/a> and the <\/span>US<\/span><\/a> to put men and women on the moon.<\/span><\/p>\n

10. Russia:<\/strong> Putin\u2019s Russia is dangerous, yet dependent on China. The \u2018<\/span>vassal<\/span><\/a>\u2019 label has some truth. The \u2018<\/span>no limits partnership<\/span><\/a>\u2019 is just short of a conventional alliance\u2014the limit is what China decides. Russia was a principal in 1.0; in 2.0 it is a partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

11. Democracy versus autocracy:<\/strong> Ideology doesn\u2019t drive 2.0 as it did 1.0, yet this is still a key division that defines the struggle over power and principles. China wants to make the world safe for autocracies, to privilege power over rules. US President Joe Biden says the world is at an \u2018<\/span>inflection point<\/span><\/a>\u2019 in a clash between democracy and autocracy.<\/span><\/p>\n

12. War:<\/strong> In 1.0, the proxy wars were in Asia. Now the US-China proxy war is in Europe.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Cold war 2.0 shares the same purpose as version 1.0: keep the superpower contest cool enough to avoid Armageddon. The new competition must seek balance, find understandings, build confidence and develop guardrails.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The contours of a new and dangerous era are in place. The world has gone from a chilly peace to a new cold war.\u00a0 Cold war 2.0 has rhymes from version 1.0, yet the origin …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":88972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2330,1787,1291,599,2385,163,332,2380],"class_list":["post-88966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-arms-control","tag-arms-race","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-cold-war","tag-new-cold-war","tag-russia","tag-technology","tag-us-china-relations"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe 12 elements of cold war 2.0 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-12-elements-of-cold-war-2-0\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The 12 elements of cold war 2.0 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The contours of a new and dangerous era are in place. 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