{"id":9153,"date":"2013-09-11T13:00:33","date_gmt":"2013-09-11T03:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=9153"},"modified":"2013-09-13T11:56:09","modified_gmt":"2013-09-13T01:56:09","slug":"should-india-be-a-priority-for-abbott","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/should-india-be-a-priority-for-abbott\/","title":{"rendered":"Should India be a priority for PM Abbott?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Last week over on T<\/em>he Interpreter<\/i>, <\/i>Danielle Rajendram criticised what looks like the absence of India from PM-elect Tony Abbott\u2019s priorities in Asia<\/a>. China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia are at the top of the list of countries for the new PM to visit, and India isn\u2019t. But the PM can’t go everywhere first, and it\u2019s hard to think which of these countries should be bumped further down the list to make room for India.<\/p>\n

India is eminently deserving of attention. It’s the world\u2019s 10th\u00a0largest economy<\/a>. \u00a0It\u2019s also a democracy, so we feel more confident that New Delhi wants the sort of world that Canberra and Washington want, and it abuts the world\u2019s most important maritime trade route. It looks like a natural partner for Australia, which is why we have a reasonably strong diplomatic and economic relationship with India.<\/p>\n

But we aren\u2019t asking \u2018Is India important?\u2019\u2014of course it is. What we’re asking is which countries should be the highest priority for the new Australian PM. That means identifying those countries that can provide us with the greatest opportunities, or where we can seek to mitigate our most serious risks.\u00a0 It\u2019s hard to make the case that India should be in that top bracket.<\/p>\n

On the economic front, India is very important to Australia. Its strongest role from our perspective is as a market for Australian exports. But even as an exporter, with a 4.7% share it\u2019s behind everyone on that list but Indonesia<\/a> as a buyer of Australian goods and services.<\/p>\n

As a two-way trade partner, it’s even further behind in 10th\u00a0place, with only 2.8% share; that\u2019s less than Thailand, Malaysia, or Singapore. India\u2019s growth has also been volatile\u2014after a striking 10.5% annual GDP growth in 2010, it grew slower than Australia last year<\/a>. And just at the moment its economic outlook isn\u2019t rosy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So it’s an important economic partner over the long term, but not a plausible candidate right now for the top bracket of Australia\u2019s relationships on economic grounds.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an even harder case to make on the basis of foreign policy. Because of our alliance with the United States (and our economic relationships in the region), Australia\u2019s strategic risks are concentrated in the waters of East Asia, where America and its allies face intensifying competition with China. The effort to mitigate those is best focused on countries that are major players in that region, and our large near neighbour Indonesia. In fact, if we add the US, then that\u2019s Mr Abbott\u2019s list.<\/p>\n

India is too strategically inert to play a significant role in mitigating the risks to Australia that are inherent in East Asia\u2019s changing power relativities\u2014at least in the near to medium term. And if that changes, it won\u2019t be because of Canberra\u2019s relationship with New Delhi, but because of a more complicated set of relationships including Tokyo and Washington. And it\u2019s difficult to see how closer ties between India and Australia could seriously benefit the security of the Indian Ocean\u2019s massive trade routes (which I’ve written more on here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

India is important to Australia. 5% is a big slice of our export market, and it’s hard to overlook a country of 1.2 billion people. And it may well become more important in the future. It\u2019s just further down the list than our partners in East Asia like Japan and South Korea, because it isn\u2019t as important economically, and it doesn’t provide us with the same opportunities to mitigate our strategic risks. Mr Abbott\u2019s suggested itinerary looks good, so let\u2019s hope there isn\u2019t too much pull to the Indian Ocean from his West Australian cabinet colleagues in Foreign Affairs and Defence.<\/p>\n

Harry White is an analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week over on The Interpreter, Danielle Rajendram criticised what looks like the absence of India from PM-elect Tony Abbott\u2019s priorities in Asia. 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